Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

Lookin at Lee/3 rules/classic empire/McCraken

Then again Churchill Downs sucks big donkey balls, so it's a $24 super box.  So too rich for me.  lol

[gotbeer]

Oh, and since I'm so high on him.  You know 3 Rules is either not going to qualify, or will finish dead last.

[Adam]

16 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Oh, and since I'm so high on him.  You know 3 Rules is either not going to qualify, or will finish dead last.

I don't even know if he'll run in the preps

[gotbeer]

2 minutes ago, Adam said:

I don't even know if he'll run in the preps

he's aiming for the Holly Bull which is the next Derby points race at Gulfstream.  He's probably going to stay there though for the derby trail.

[Adam]

Just now, gotbeer said:

he's aiming for the Holly Bull which is the next Derby points race at Gulfstream.  He's probably going to stay there though for the derby trail.

He has speed (which is seemingly all you need on that surface) so he should be able to get points. 

[Adam]

I love non-Kentucky breds. Cal Cup this Saturday.

[Adam]

BTW - Victor should fire his agent. Not one mount before the Pegasus. 

[Homebrewer]

Hurricane Bertie Stakes

$100,000 - Grade 3

Stats & Trends

Last 5 Hurricane Bertie Winners:

Year Horse Jockey

2015 Merry Meadow J. Castellano

2014 Groupie Doll R. Maragh

2013 Golden Mystery L. Saez

2012 R Holiday Mood J. Velazquez

2011 Hilda’s Passion J. Castellano

Profile of a Hurricane Bertie Winner

(Since 2001)

Average Odds ............................ 2.33/1

Winning Favorites .................... 9 (60.0%)

Average Win Margin ................ 3.23 Lengths

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -1.10 Lengths

(1st Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -0.17 Lengths

(2nd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... +1.77 Lengths

(Stretch Call)

Wire-to-Wire Winners .............. 6 (40.0%)

Know This

Fear the Chalk: Favorites have won nine of

the last 12 editions of the Hurricane Bertie,

including the last three. During that span, just

two favorites finished outside the Exacta and

only one outside the Trifecta.

Call it a Five-Peat? Javier Castellano leads all

active riders with four Hurricane Bertie victories.

All four winners were favorites, however, so

his career Win ROI in the race is just $1.87.

Runaway Winners: The camera at the finish

line can take this one off. In 15 prior runnings

of the Hurricane Bertie, the average margin of

victory is nearly 3 ¼-lengths. Just three times

was the margin 1-length or less.

Post Time: 12:30 PM ET

4YO+

Fillies & Mares

6 Furlongs

Curlin’s Approval Appears Primed

Jeff Siegel, XBTV.com - @jsiegelracing

Jeff’s

Picks

1. CURLIN’S APPROVAL 2. YOU BOUGHT HER

3. GENRE 4. BODACIOUS BABE

Analysis: With no ‘need the lead’ frontrunners entered in this year’s Hurricane

Bertie, I expect trainer Martin Wolfson will instruct Gulfstream’s leading

jockey, Luis Saez, to ride CURLIN’S APPROVAL aggressively from the bell and

seize control of the race if the situation allows. In six career starts, CURLIN’S

APPROVAL has never actually led at the first call, but with a decent break she

should be on or near the lead without having to use much energy.

Main Contenders: CURLIN’S APPROVAL seems likely to be extra sharp after

a six-week respite. Two recent bullet 5-furlong workouts – including a :58

flat breeze on January 16 – should have her right on edge. That, along with a

series of speed figures that are more than good enough to handle this field,

makes her the logical top choice. Conversely, YOU BOUGHT HER will be taking

the opposite approach, returning on very short rest after missing by a neck in

the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint last Saturday. The veteran mare is a

7-furlong specialist, having finished first or second in nine of 15 starts at this

extended sprint trip. Unfortunately, that positive angle may be cancelled by her

0-for-7 record at Gulfstream Park.

Value Plays: GENRE hasn’t sprinted since, well, ever. It’s hard to believe that

it’s taken this long for Todd Pletcher to find a suitable race shorter than a mile

for this daughter of Bernardini, who generally employs pace-setting or stalking

tactics in her two-turn tries. She finished third in the mid-December Rampart

Stakes (CURLIN’S APPROVAL finished second) and the five-year-old mare might

appreciate if Johnny Velazquez allows her to try to take this field wire-to-wire,

a strategy that could very well be dictated by her rail post position. She also

boasts several back numbers that will put her in the fray.

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $20 Win: CURLIN’S APPROVAL ($20)

• $10 Exacta Box: CURLIN’S APPROVAL and YOU BOUGHT HER ($20)

• $5 Exacta Box: CURLIN’S APPROVAL and GENRE ($10)

Poseidon Handicap

$400,000

Stats & Trends

Winning Jockeys

Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 Mile Dirt Races

(Since December 5, 2015)

Javier Castellano 3

John Velazquez 2

Luis Saez 2

Carlos Olivera 1

Corey Lanerie 1

Mario Gutierrez 1

Nik Juarez 1

Paco Lopez 1

Winning Running Styles

Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 Mile Dirt Races

(Since December 5, 2015)

Wire-to-Wire 2

Stalking 6

Midpack 4

Closing 0

Winning Post Positions

Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 Mile Dirt Races

(Since December 5, 2015)

Post Wins/Starts Post Wins/Starts

1 1/12 8 0/9

2 1/12 9 0/7

3 4/12 10 0/5

4 1/12 11 1/3

5 4/12 12 0/2

6 0/11 13 0/2

7 0/9 14 0/2

Post Time: 1:30 PM ET

4YO+

1 1/8 Miles

Money in the Bank, Baby!

Stan Salter, Maryland Horse Radio - @MDHorseRadio

Stan’s

Picks

1. STANFORD 2. MADEFROMLUCKY

3. IMPERATIVE 4. HY RIVERSIDE

Analysis: Have to give credit when it’s due, and I’d just like to tip my cap to the

Gulfstream Park Racing Office for putting together a phenomenal card today.

A field of nine is entered for the inaugural edition of the Poseidon, with Todd

Pletcher’s STANFORD leading the way. He looks like he can go right to the front

and take this field coast-to-coast, just as he did in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes a

little over a month ago. In fact, not only do I think STANFORD wins here, but I

also think he’s a very reliable key horse on both your Early Pick 5 and Early Pick 4

tickets. His stablemate, MADEFROMLUCKY, also exits the Harlan’s Holiday and is

the only horse that appears capable of springing an upset.

Main Contenders: STANFORD obviously looks the part. The five-year-old

was simply untouchable in the Harlan’s Holiday, his fifth victory in 13 career

starts. He loves Gulfstream, where he has two wins and two seconds from five

starts. So long as Johnny V holds on, I think STANFORD will do the rest. Todd

Pletcher’s ‘other’ horse, MADEFROMLUCKY, reunites with Javier Castellano, with

whom he won the 2015 Peter Pan Stakes. I’m hoping for a better trip than

he got last out in the Harlan’s Holiday, where he had no racing room and was

almost put over the rail around the 1/8-pole. IMPERATIVE has earned more

than $2 million and deserves some respect, especially considering it appears

he’s developed an up and down pattern with his speed figs in his last four races.

Today, it looks like this son of Bernardini is due to put in his best effort.

Value Plays: With STANFORD and MADEFROMLUCKY looking the part of

reliable favorites, there isn’t a ton of value in this race. Frankly, STANFORD

is probably your stone-cold lock of the day. Go to the window and key him

in your Early Pick 5, Early Pick 4, and play a large Exacta with him on top of

MADEFROMLUCKY. Money in the bank, baby!

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $30 Win: STANFORD ($30)

• $20 Exacta: STANFORD over MADEFROMLUCKY ($20)

Ladies’ Turf Sprint

$125,000

Stats & Trends

Last 5 Ladies’ Turf Sprint Winners:

Year Horse Jockey

2016 Lady Shipman I. Ortiz Jr.

2015 Jewel of a Cat P. Lopez

2014 Believe in Charlie J. Castellano

2013 Stopshoppingmaria J. Velazquez

2012 Inspired J. Velazquez

Profile of a Ladies’ Turf Sprint Winner:

(Since 2010)

Average Odds ............................ 4.53/1

Winning Favorites .................... 4 (57.1%)

Average Win Margin ................ 1.39 Lengths

Average Beaten Lengths ..... - 0.18 Lengths

(1st Call)

Average Beaten Lengths .... +0.36 Lengths

(2nd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... +1.50 Lengths

(Stretch Call)

Wire-to-Wire Winners ............. 4 (57.1%)

Know This

Need for Speed: Start your handicapping

with fillies that are quickest from the gate.

4-of-7 editions of the Ladies’ Turf Sprint were

won in wire-to-wire fashion and just one

winner was not first or second at the first

point-of-call.

Beware the Rail: Fillies breaking from the

rail are a combined 0-for-7 in the Ladies’ Turf

Sprint, with just two in-the-money finishes. On

the other hand, horses breaking from the far

outside post have finished in the Top 3 in each

of the last three years at average odds of 33/1.

Price Plays: In each of the last four years, at

least one filly has finished in the Trifecta at

double-digit odds. Since 2013, the $2 Ladies’

Sprint Trifecta has paid $1,989.60 (2015),

$1,701 (2014), $238 (2013) and $34.40 (2016).

Post Time: 2:32 PM ET

4YO+

Fillies & Mares

5 Furlongs Turf

Following the Breadcrumbs

Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com - @Xpressbet

Dustin’s

Picks

1. NITE DELITE 2. SPECTACULAR ME

3. MOON RIVER (IRE) 4. TRIPLE CHELSEA

Analysis: When I was learning to handicap races, one of the first pieces of

advice I received was to always keep an eye on the jockey ‘breadcrumbs,’ and

to follow their trail to your winner. Focus on riders who appeared to have the

choice to ride multiple horses in a race…and then bet the horse they chose.

After all, the riders know better than anyone which horse gives them the best

chance for a trip to the winner’s circle. And since Paco Lopez chose NITE DELITE

over BRANDY’S GIRL, MY SISTER CARO and BLUE BAHIA (all fillies he rode in their

most recent starts), I can’t help but give her the edge in this evenly-matched

12-horse field.

Main Contenders: In addition to securing the services of Paco Lopez, NITE

DELITE has a great record at the distance (in the Exacta in 6-of-7 tries) and,

according to the Stats & Trends in the right column, benefits from being an

outside-drawn frontrunner. SPECTACULAR ME loves turf sprints and Gulfstream

Park, and reunites with jockey, Jose Ortiz. They teamed to win the Claiming

Crown Distaff Dash here in December. TRIPLE CHELSEA took advantage of a

pace meltdown in her last race at Tampa Bay Downs to beat NITE DELITE by a

neck in a stakes race. She should get another good setup Saturday.

Value Plays: There’s so much speed signed on for this race that at least one

of the closers is going to step up and run a big race at a huge price. Keep an

eye on MOON RIVER and BIBBY, and don’t hesitate to use them in your exotic

wagers. Their jockeys, Joel Rosario and Corey Lanerie, respectively, do well with

closers and the anticipated scorching pace will benefit their closing kicks.

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $20 Win: NITE DELITE ($20)

• $5 Exacta: NITE DELITE with MY SISTER CARO, MOON RIVER, BIBBY,

SPECTACULAR ME, TRIPLE CHELSEA and EVERYTHING LOVELY ($30)

Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint

$125,000

Stats & Trends

Last 5 G.P. Turf Sprint Winners:

Year Horse Jockey

2016 Power Alert (AUS) J. Leparoux

2015 Amelia’s Wild Ride J. Lezcano

2014 Wicked Tune E. Trujillo

2013 Varsity J. Bravo

2012 Private Jet (ARG) J. Velazquez

Profile of a G.P. Turf Sprint Winner

(Since 2010)

Average Odds ............................ 5.09/1

Winning Favorites .................... 1 (14.2%)

Average Win Margin ................ 0.89 Lengths

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -1.21 Lengths

(1st Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -0.86 Lengths

(2nd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... -0.07 Lengths

(Stretch Call)

Wire-to-Wire Winners .............. 1 (14.2%)

Know This

Closers Need Not Apply: While only one

horse has taken the G.P. Turf Sprint in wire-towire

fashion, none of the race’s seven winners

was more than 2 ½-lengths out of first at any

point of call. Key your wagers around horses

that will be racing near the lead.

Just an Anomaly? Horses breaking from Post

Position #4 have won four of the first seven

editions of the G.P. Turf Sprint.

Post Time: 3:38 PM ET

4YO+

5 Furlongs Turf

Dash For The Cash

John ‘Johnny D’ DeSantis, Xpressbet.com - @XBJohnnyD

Johnny D’s

Picks

1. MANHATTAN DAN 2. POWER ALERT (AUS)

3. PLATINUM PRINCE 4. SUPER SPENDER

Analysis: This is a particularly challenging race to handicap. That’s because the

group includes several hard-knocking, win-type runners with outstanding turf records

at the distance and over the Gulfstream turf course. There’s a tantalizing mixture

of speed and closers, so serious pace analysis doesn’t do much to clear the picture.

‘Gonna have to dig to unearth this treasure. Since this is the ninth event on a 12-race

Pegasus World Cup card, it occupies an important wagering position for horseplayers

as the Rainbow Six third leg, the late Pick Five second leg and the late Pick Four first

leg! Those singling here are bolder than this horseplayer. Adequate coverage suggests

a ‘spread’ attack. Below are two Main Contenders and a pair of Value Plays that can

be used horizontally. Additionally, MONGOLIAN SATURDAY, maybe past his prime,

still is dangerous and PLATINUM PRINCE, off a nice allowance score, fit on larger tickets.

Main Contenders: Defending champ, POWER ALERT, returns off a victory in

Tampa’s Turf Dash Stakes. He was second in that race last year before winning

this one. ‘ALERT is sharp, unbeaten on GP turf and 8-for-19 at the distance on

grass. He’s got speed, too, and an outside post that gives jockey Julien Leparoux

flexibility. Different this year: POWER ALERT is seven-years-old and the purse

is $50,000 more than last year! MANHATTAN DAN hails from the powerful

Todd Petcher barn and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, who recently won

his fourth consecutive Eclipse Award as the nation’s top jockey. The Pletcher/

Castellano combo wins at about 32%. Those positives alone put this one on a

ticket. MANHATTAN DAN also has solid credentials: 2-for-2 GP turf and 3-for-3

at the distance on grass. He’s got speed, too, is fresh since April and has worked

every six/seven days, including a minute bullet at Palm Beach Downs.

Value Plays: Two hard-hitters with outstanding GP turf and distance/surface

records are SUPER SPENDER and PAY ANY PRICE. They don’t exude the class to

attract wagering action, but they’re sharp runners that can upset the apple cart.

The former was well behind POWER ALERT last out at 3-1 and the latter romped

in a five-furlong, $16k optional claimer on turf. SUPER SPENDER recently

delivered a bullet (best of 29) half in :47 3/5 over Palm Meadows turf.

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $10 Exacta Box: MANHATTAN DAN and POWER ALERT ($20)

• $5 Exacta: MANHATTAN DAN and POWER ALERT with SUPER SPENDER, PAY

ANY PRICE and PLATINUM PRINCE ($30)

La Prevoyante Handicap

$200,000 - Grade 3

Stats & Trends

Last 5 La Prevoyante Winners:

Year Horse Jockey

2015 Goldy Espony (FR) J. Castellano

2014 Irish Mission J. Velazquez

2013 Closing Range E. Trujillo

2012 Casablanca Smile (CHI) J. Castellano

2011 Changing Skies (IRE) K. Desormeaux

Profile of a La Prevoyante Winner

(Since 1991)

Average Odds ............................ 4.73/1

Winning Favorites .................... 12 (48.0%)

Average Win Margin ................ 1.74 Lengths

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -2.96 Lengths

(1st Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -3.80 Lengths

(2nd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -2.53 Lengths

(3rd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... -1.18 Lengths

(4th Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... +0.70 Lengths

(Stretch Call)

Wire-to-Wire Winners .............. 5 (20.0%)

Know This

New Digs, Round II: Prior to 2014, this race

was contested at Calder Race Course. Only the

last two editions, won by Goldy Espony and

Irish Mission, were held at Gulfstream Park.

Clear Sailing: Frontrunners have won this

race five times in the last nine editions. That

recent success broke a streak of more than

15 consecutive years of futility for early speed

horses, dating back to the early 1990’s.

The Javy & Johnny Show: Javier Castellano

(3 wins) and John Velazquez (2 wins) have

combined to win five of the last nine editions

of the La Prevoyante.

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+

Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Cream of the Crop

Millie Ball, XBTV.com - @camillayakteen

Millie’s

Picks

1. SUFFUSED (GB) 2. ARLES (FR)

3. PROMOTIONAL 4. TRY YOUR LUCK

Analysis: A full field of 12 is signed on for the Grade 3 La Prevoyante

Handicap. With the distance set at a 1 ½-miles on the lawn at Gulfstream, I’m

looking for a horse that can sit handily and punch home! A number of these,

including SUFFUSED, ARLES, PROMOTIONAL and PAIGE appear to fit that bill.

Main Contenders: SUFFUSED exits the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes at

Woodbine, a race she arguably would have won had she been able to avoid

traffic in the final furlong. Her rider, Jose Ortiz, had trouble finding racing room,

but once they got loose she ran on to finish 2nd, beaten just a nose. SUFFUSED

loves firm ground and her pedigree is loaded with stamina. Her grandsire

produced Arc winner, Dylan Thomas, and her dam’s sire, Daylami, won the ‘99

Breeders’ Cup Turf at Gulfstream. She may be vulnerable today, though. This

is her first start off the bench and she didn’t draw well, but I think her class will

suffice. Plus, trainer Bill Mott insists she is a better filly now than she was when

she ran previously at Gulfstream. ARLES usually sits a handy trip and I see her

tucking in behind QUIET KITTEN and GYPSY EYES, who are the speed of the

race. She has a habit of running 2nd, but ran really well last out when she was

the runner-up in Del Mar’s Red Carpet Handicap, beaten only by Japanese Oaks

winner, Nuovo Record.

Value Plays: PAIGE has been consistent for Christophe Clement and won

the Via Borghese Stakes here last out at odds of 21/1. I expect a similar price

Saturday. She beat PROMOTIONAL in that race, but that one got stuck behind

a dawdling pace and then was effectively blocked behind horses all the way to

the wire. She’d have run better with a clean trip. On the other hand, TRY YOUR

LUCK had a perfect trip in the Tropical Park Oaks last month. She saved ground

every step of the way, but hung late and finished third. I do love that she

reunites with Florent Geroux, though. They teamed to win the Dueling Grounds

Oaks at Kentucky Downs in September by 7 ½-lengths.

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $25 Exacta Box: SUFFUSED and ARLES ($50)

W.L. McKnight Handicap

$200,000 - Grade 3

Stats & Trends

Last 5 W.L McKnight Winners:

Year Horse Jockey

2015 Charming Kitten J. Velazquez

2014 Divine Oath J. Castellano

2013 Twilight Eclipse J. Lezcano

2012 Twilight Eclipse M. Cruz

2011 Musketier (GER) L. Saez

Profile of a W.L. McKnight Winner

(Since 1991)

Average Odds ............................ 9.42/1

Winning Favorites .................... 8 (30.7%)

Average Win Margin ................ 1.51 Lengths

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -2.84 Lengths

(1st Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -3.28 Lengths

(2nd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -2.33 Lengths

(3rd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... -1.13 Lengths

(4th Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... +0.28 Lengths

(Stretch Call)

Wire-to-Wire Winners .............. 5 (19.2%)

Know This

New Digs, Round 1: Prior to 2014, this race

was contested at Calder Race Course. Only the

last two editions, won by Charming Kitten and

Divine Oath, were held at Gulfstream Park.

Déjà vu: Since moving to Gulfstream Park

in 2014, both editions of the W.L. McKnight

Handicap have been won by Todd Pletchertrained

runners that rallied from midpack to

score at odds of 9/2.

Vulnerable…on the Grass: Since 1999, the

W.L. McKnight has been run on the turf 15

times, with favorites winning just twice. In that

same span, the race came off the turf three

times and favorites won twice.

Post Time: 4:50 PM ET

4YO+

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Passing of the Torch

Anthony ‘The Big A’ Stabile, Xpressbet Radio - @TheBigAStabile

Big A’s

Picks

1. SADLER’S JOY 2. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE

3. PATTERSON CROSS 4. CHARMING KITTEN

Analysis: Another wide open event on an action-packed undercard, this

12-furlong turf marathon offers an interesting mix of stakes winners and those

looking to garner some black type for the first time. That storyline plays out

perfectly in Tom Albertrani’s barn alone, as eight-year-old Grade 1 winner,

TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, a former world-record holder at this trip on the turf, has to

contend with his up-and-coming stablemate, SADLER’S JOY, a four-year-old

that’s won three straight against maidens and allowance company. In total, a

dozen runners are set to go to post, including the defending champ, CHARMING

KITTEN, from the potent Mike Maker stable.

Main Contenders: CHARMING KITTEN has won half of his eight starts over

the Gulfstream turf course and returns to the U.S. for his first start in over five

months after several failed tries in Europe last summer. TAGHLEEB has won a

pair of stakes, including the H. Allen Jerkens last out, in his first five starts since

being claimed by Maker, who has become a master at turning former claimers

in to stakes winners. DANISH DYNAFORMER and MR. MAYBE are more than

capable when they fire their best shots, as is TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, who could very

well work out a perfect trip right behind the frontrunners, DIAMOND BACHELOR

and APPLICATOR.

Value Plays: SADLER’S JOY will be making his first start in nearly three

months, having won his last three starts at different distances over different

turf courses. I love his versatility and think he has all the potential in the world.

PATTERSON CROSS closed nicely with the addition of blinkers in his latest start

and should appreciate the added distance in his stakes debut for Hall of Fame

trainer, Bill Mott.

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $20 Win: SADLER’S JOY ($20)

• $5 Exacta Key Box: SADLER’S JOY with TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, PATTERSON CROSS

and CHARMING KITTEN ($30)

Pegasus World Cup

$12,000,000 - Grade 1

Stats & Trends

Last 5 Donn Handicap Winners:

Year Horse Jockey

2016 Mshawish J. Velazquez

2015 Constitution J. Castellano

2014 Lea J. Rosario

2013 Graydar E. Prado

2012 Hymn Book J. Velazquez

Profile of a Winner

(Since 1991)

Average Odds ............................ 5.50/1

Winning Favorites .................... 7 (26.9%)

Average Win Margin ................ 2.66 Lengths

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -1.79 Lengths

(1st Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -1.69 Lengths

(2nd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ...... -1.01 Lengths

(3rd Call)

Average Beaten Lengths ..... +1.41 Lengths

(Stretch Call)

Wire-to-Wire Winners .............. 5 (19.2%)

Know This

New Name, Bigger Stakes: The Pegasus

World Cup replaces the Donn Handicap, which

had been contested every year since 1959.

The winner’s share of the 2016 edition, won by

Mshawish, was $300,000. This year’s winner

takes home $7,000,000.

The Todd Show: Todd Pletcher led all trainers

with five victories in the Donn Handicap. His

overall record in the race was 17 – 5 – 2 – 1 with

a Win ROI of $2.44.

Need for Speed: Over the last 26 editions

of the Donn, 18 winners either took the field

wire-to-wire (5 times) or stalked the early pace

from 2nd or 3rd (13 times). Five winners rallied

from midpack, while just three victors were

deep closers.

Post Time: 5:40 PM ET

4YO+

1 1/8 Miles

A Showdown for the Ages

Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports - @EddieOlczyk

Eddie’s

Picks

1. ARROGATE 2. SHAMAN GHOST

3. CALIFORNIA CHROME 4. KEEN ICE

Analysis: With all due respect to the other ten entrants, this race definitely

goes through ARROGATE and CALIFORNIA CHROME. They finished more than

10-lengths clear of the pack in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and are clearly the best

two dirt horses in the world. Separating this superstar tandem isn’t simple, but

I think ARROGATE gained the advantage at Monday’s Post Position Draw. He

drew the rail (the same post from which he won the Travers), while CALIFORNIA

CHROME is marooned in the far outside gate. With a short run into the first

turn, that could make all the difference.

Main Contenders: With a combined nine Grade 1 wins and $18.5 million

in earnings between them, ARROGATE and CALIFORNIA CHROME are as good

as it gets. Their resumes include wins in the Dubai World Cup, Breeders’ Cup

Classic, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Travers, Pacific Classic, Awesome Again and

more. But when it comes to betting the Pegasus World Cup, I give the edge to

ARROGATE. He’s going to get a perfect setup, while ‘CHROME may not be so

lucky. I expect Mike Smith to guide ARROGATE into a cozy stalking trip, maybe

4th or 5th behind NEOLITHIC and NOBLE BIRD, while Victor Espinoza is going to

have to work hard early to ensure ‘CHROME doesn’t get stuck wide. And when

the running starts, I think the energy and ground ARROGATE saved will be the

difference. I picked him in Xpressbet’s Travers and Breeders’ Cup Wager Guides

and he delivered for me both times, so let’s go for the ‘Hat Trick’ and get him to

the wire first in the World Cup.

Value Plays: He’s going to need some luck, but I’m betting SHAMAN GHOST

will run a big race Saturday. He won last year’s Woodward Stakes and has

been pointed to this race for months by owner, Frank Stronach. If he brings his

A-Game, and if ARROGATE or CALIFORNIA CHROME falter just a little, he should

be well poised to ‘split’ those two at the finish and key some solid payouts.

$50 Wagering Strategy:

• $5 Exacta: ARROGATE with SHAMAN GHOST and CALIFORNIA CHROME ($10)

• $5 Exacta Box: ARROGATE and SHAMAN GHOST ($10)

• $1 Trifecta: ARROGATE with SHAMAN GHOST and CALIFORNIA CHROME

with ALL ($20)

• $10 Win: ARROGATE ($10)

[Adam]

I did a cursory glance at the PPs on Tuesday. Going to start digging in at lunch today. Trying to decide if I'm going to play the pick 6 or pick 4

[gotbeer]

Damn.  That guide picked Shaman's Ghost.  I was looking at him as the upset horse.  him and the Foreign horse.  He looks intriguing also. 

[Adam]

Just now, gotbeer said:

Damn.  That guide picked Shaman's Ghost.  I was looking at him as the upset horse.  him and the Foreign horse.  He looks intriguing also. 

lol there won't be an upste. but I'll probably play a cold tri w/Shaman Ghost

[gotbeer]

6 minutes ago, Adam said:

lol there won't be an upste. but I'll probably play a cold tri w/Shaman Ghost

If there is.  Then $$$$$$$ is to be made.  This race would be a lot easier if Arrogate didn't get #1 and Chrome didn't get #12.

[Adam]

Just now, gotbeer said:

If there is.  Then $$$$$$$ is to be made.  This race would be a lot easier if Arrogate didn't get #1 and Chrome didn't get #12.

Yeah never say never. I just wouldn't use one in multis. 

[Adam]

I'd give the chance at an upset at 10%. I think both will finish off the board, but if there is an upset I have to think it will be by Neolithic or Noble Bird.

The most likely scenario for an upset as I see it is one of those two break well and get the lead. Arrogate, usually a step slow, will not have American Freedom as a pulling guard opening a huge path for him. He could very well get shuffled back and he did not do well in traffic in his debut and finished third. At the same time, Chrome is going to have to be wide throughout, which is not ideal at Gulfstream. If those two things happen and either Neolithic or Noble Bird can get the lead uncontested (without dueling each other into the ground) I think there's a chance they could steal it on that track. 

[gotbeer]

I might change my bets.  But this is where I'm leading right now.

$0.10 Superfecta $7.20, $1 Exacta $6, $0.50 Trifecta $12

1 Arrogate, 7 Shaman's Ghost with 1, 7, 12 California Chrome, 11 Eragon with 1, 7, 12, 11, 9 Keen Ice, 10 Breaking Lucky

So there is my $25.20 contribution to the pot.

 

[Adam]

Some good turf races

[Homebrewer]

Don't know if you guys noticed the "analyst" for the big race was Hockey HOF member Eddie Olczyk..

That said he's a pretty good handicapper.

I'm looking at the late P4 with interest.

[Homebrewer]

35 minutes ago, Adam said:

I'd give the chance at an upset at 10%. I think both will finish off the board, but if there is an upset I have to think it will be by Neolithic or Noble Bird.

The most likely scenario for an upset as I see it is one of those two break well and get the lead. Arrogate, usually a step slow, will not have American Freedom as a pulling guard opening a huge path for him. He could very well get shuffled back and he did not do well in traffic in his debut and finished third. At the same time, Chrome is going to have to be wide throughout, which is not ideal at Gulfstream. If those two things happen and either Neolithic or Noble Bird can get the lead uncontested (without dueling each other into the ground) I think there's a chance they could steal it on that track. 

I favor the highlighted opinion above. I think Arrogate could be relegated to being asked to "close" down the stretch, and I'm not sure he will be able to do that, especially if he is forced to swing outside after a boxed in and troubled trip down the back. No way I could not include (or bet against) Chrome in his final race. They have nothing to save anything for, and if Arrogate gets boxed, Chrome might be out there by 5 or 10 lengths turning for home.

[Homebrewer]

28 minutes ago, Adam said:

Some good turf races

I'm looking at the late pick 4 and going 5x2x2x2 (40.00) unless they offer a .50 P4 then I might be able to spread in the 2 middle legs a bit more. All turf stakes leading up to the Pegasus, and an all stakes P4 is hard to pass up. 

[Adam]

It's .50

 

They also have a late pick 5 I believe

[Homebrewer]

2 minutes ago, Adam said:

It's .50

 

They also have a late pick 5 I believe

Thanks for muddying the waters, pal...

actually it's going to allow me to throw some $$$ horses into the mix.

[Adam]

And of course the $0.20 pick 6

[Homebrewer]

Late pick 4 tomorrow is 1 million guaranteed..

Yumm Yumm

[Adam]

Pegasus Day

 

Race 1

 

This race looks pretty wide open. I'm against the favorite #2 Homespun Hero (3-1): 0-3 at the distance. This one is going to finish second. I like a price here. #6 Icatiro (12-1) should sit off the pace 3-5 lengths. There's a fair amount of pace in this race. Was taken up sharply last out at this distance in Zulu's comeback race. Put a line through that one. Other contenders include #5 Visionary Ruler (5-1) who tries the surface for the first time for a Jockey/Trainer combo winning about 25%. #9 Louie's Baby Boy (8-1) took a while to break his maiden but did so last out off the layoff. With second off improvement a possibility and the possibility that this one has finally figured it out, he could surprise the field.

 

6-2-5-9

 

Race 2

 

#1 Dancing Waves (5-1) will likely be bet down. Didn't fire back in October in his American Debut. Based on the time she took off I'll assume something went wrong that day. This isn't a great field. Chad Brown and Javier. I expect this one to run big. #6 Dream Dancing (7-2) returns to the turf after 3 Graded Stakes tries on dirt. Horse comes in fresh and takes the blinkers off (29% Trainer with that angle). May need one but expect a big effort.  #3 Sweeping Paddy (5-2) might be the classiest based on the BC Juvenile's try. Romans isn't great off the bench. Should be running late. #2 Grateful (4-1) broke her maiden here last out.

 

1-6-3-2

 

Race 3

 

This looks like a two horse race. #3 Curlin's Approval (6-5) is going to be incredibly tough in here. I like the cutback and tactical speed. #5 You Bought Her (9-2) is an old-timer with 48 lifetime starts. She comes in as good as ever from a form and speed standpoint. 7-0-4-1 at Gulfstream though. Looks like an ice-cold exacta.  #1 Genre (7-2) might be compromised with the inside post. Could be right there if she trips out.

 

3-5-1-2

 

Race 4

 

This is a very competitive MSW event. I love #11 Union Way (10-1) who hopped last out and fell well back early. Finished full of run. Bravo chooses this one over #2 Ritzy Rose (4-1).  Blinkers on ($2.99 ROI Trainer). She should be much closer and at a nice price. Ritzy Rose was very competitive last out and should be a contender with any improvement. Extra ground is a positive. #5 Dramatic Girl (5-1) has been unimpressive but Casse and Julien team up here against an unimpressive group.

 

11-2-5-4

 

Race 5

 

#6 Madefromlucky (7-2) is 5-2-1-0 at Gulfstream. He's certainly a very talented horse who has failed to put it all together. Ran okay off the layoff a month ago and should fire with 2nd off improvement. #4 Stanford (1-1) will win this race if he gets an easy lead. He's going to be odds on though and I think there's a chance he faces a pace challenge from 100-1 shot #2 Ranger In Paradise - a stretch-out sprinter. Madefromlucky can sit just behind those two and take over in the stretch. #3 Imperative (9-2) is such a cool horse. Always runs hard, seldom wins. Look for him to do what he does - cash a check.

 

6-4-3-1

 

Race 6

 

This race is impossible. #13 Snap Decision (6-1) has ran okay in his first two tries. 2nd start as a 3YO. He is as good as any. #3 Slaimy (5-1) should be right there if he repeats his debut. Don't love Pletcher on turf but this field looks weak. #1 Confiscate (15-1) is a firster. Why not?

 

13-3-1-14

 

Race 7

 

As a challenging as these turf sprints are they are my favorite races to play. There are a number of ways to go in here. Ultimately, I landed on #2 Moon River (20-1). There is a potential dog fight on the front end with a number of horses with a ton of early pace. Looking for a closer in here and this one can save ground on the inside and potentially get a dream inside trip. The price is right for this one, who only has a couple of US starts. #5 Artesian (30-1) has never sprinted on turf but the trainer is 29% route to turf. Another huge priced closer. #6 Brandy's Girl (10-1) is versatile - able to be up on the pace and able to sit just off. #8 Pretty Perfection (12-1) is another versatile runner who should be in prime stalking position. In multis, I'll be going really deep.

 

2-5-6-8

 

Race 8

 

Tough to get a read on this race. I landed on the logicals in here - #3 Blind Ambition (7-2) for Pletcher, a first time Tapit and #8 Lookin For Eight (4-1) who ran a fast debut, finishing 2nd. #2 Truly A Moonshot (15-1) adds blinkers and cuts back. #11 Commandeering (5-1) for Pletcher to round out the Super.

 

3-8-2-11

 

Race 9

 

The boys turn to run 5F on the turf. Like the ladies' version, I don't know that you can get away going thin in this race. #10 Mongolian Saturday (7-2) is your likely favorite. He's a BC winner, 5-11 at the distance and has a win over the surface. The post is fine with his speed. Come and get him! #11 Power Alert (4-1) isn't likely to get the lead but he's shown an ability to stalk in the past. 4-4 at Gulfstream! As there are a number of frontrunners I'll use two others from off the pace. #8 Super Spender (10-1) and my TOP PICK  #3 Long On Value (12-1) will be trying to run down the leaders late.

 

3-10-11-8

 

Race 10

 

#12 Suffused (3-1) is going to be very tough in here. Superior figures, good form and winning connections. Distance is a bit of a question: 2-0-1-0 at the distance. #7 Arles (7-2) is the other logical. Two races in the US, two second place finishes. #11 Paige (8-1) and #4 Desiree Clary (9-2) should battle it out for the bottom end of exotics.

 

12-7-11-4

 

Race 11

 

I think this is the perfect race for #4 Danish Dynaformer (5-1) who can run all day and has a great turn of foot. Look for him to be charging late. #6 Charming Kitten (9-2) won this race last year. Mike Smith up! #10 Mr. Maybe (6-1) - leave Brown/JJ off your ticket at your own risk. #11 Sadler's Joy (8-1) has won 3 in a row and tries Stakes company for the first time.

 

4-6-10-11

 

Race 12

 

#12 California Chrome (6-5) in his final race. He got a terrible post draw. Fortunately, there's no speed inside. If he breaks like he has in his last three he can eliminate the handicap of the 12 post. I'd expect him to sit just off #3 Neolithic and/or #4 Noble Bird, both is which are incredibly fast early, but also just as likely to miss the break completely. #1 Arrogate (7-5) is the most likely winner on paper, but I have questions. A.) Is there a chance he gets stuck inside, behind horses and faces traffic issues turning from home? Yes. There is a reasonable chance that happens. B.) Will his funky training schedule and the fact that he was scratched from his last race impact his ability to fire? Maybe. Baffert is better than anyone at training horses into a race. C.) Does he have legitimate foot issues? Perhaps. I am less concerned with California Chrome's challenges than I am Arrogates. But, Arrogate can win despite those issues. Will he?No! California Chrome goes out on top with more than $20 Million in earnings. But, I will absolutely use both. #7 Shaman Ghost (20-1) to complete the tri. #9 Keen Ice (12-1) to fill out the Super.

 

12-1-7-9

[gotbeer]

Just did a quick look.  Man lot's of wide open races.

Didn't do the first two races.  And will probably cut down the fields tomorrow.  But

R3 1 Genre, 3 Curlin's Approval

R4 3 Star Maven, 4 Bee R Bee

R5 4 Stanford

R6 3 Slaimy, 7 Unspoiled Moments, 10 Appealing Briefs, 12 Zorzor

R7 1 My Sister Caro, 4 Blue Bahia, 5 Artesian, 6 Brandy's Girl, 8 Pretty Perfection, 9 Spectacular Me

R8 11 Commandeering (didn't know who to pick)

R9 1 Rainpow Heir, 8 Super Spender, 10 Mongolian Saturday, 11 Power Alert

R10 12 Suffused, 11 Paige

R11 1 Taghleeb, 2 Montclair, 6 Charming Kitten, 10 Mr Maybe, 11 Sadlers Joy

Overall though, lots of huge fields with good prices.  R7 Artesian is probbly going to be my longshot play of the day.