Thoroughbred Racing

[Lou]

imagine if Stellar Wind had broken clean

[gotbeer]

1 minute ago, Homebrewer said:

Beholder...what an amazing race.

I lost because of leaving out forever unbridled, but I don't care.

Yeah, Stellar Wind f'd me.  But good for Beholder.  Pass the torch to the youngster.  

[Lou]

hello girl in the light blue dress.....

[Homebrewer]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

hello girl in the light blue dress.....

Probably went to USC..

[Homebrewer]

Outa here...see you all tomorrow!

[gotbeer]

I hate when I keep telling myself that Beholder didn't push himself in both races Stellar Wind won.  That she was saving herself for the big money race of the Pacific, which she didn't push because Chrome was just amazing.  And then for the Breeders.  And I don't put her on top of my tickets.  Sigh.  

[Lou]

11 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Probably went to USC..

hot dumb blonde?

definitely 

 

[Spencer]

I will be at the BC today. No idea what I'll be betting, but I am sure it will be fun.

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Spencer said:

I will be at the BC today. No idea what I'll be betting, but I am sure it will be fun.

You will have a blast.  Just get your bets early.  If you are having trouble betting, go to the area underneath the grandstand.  Pretty much there is a room down below called the paddock where the degens go.  It leads to the tunnels to the infield.  I've found that that's the easiest place to bet on super crowded days. 

I'll be doing a writeup on some bias' that I saw yesterday that may or may not help you.

[gotbeer]

 

[gotbeer]

So here is the scoop.  Been using Brisnet.  Looking at their track bias for Friday. 

Winners:

• Race 1 6 Ten Blessings E/P 56%
• Race 2 3 Watch this cat E 38%
• Race 3 1 Scuba EP 33% (E was a 48%)
• Race 4 5 Silent Bird EP 56%
• Race 5 10 How about zero E 33% (EP was a 56%)
• Race 6 13 Oscar Performance E 12% (P was a 35%, S was a 35%)
• Race 7 8 Tamarkuz EP 38% (E 38%)
• Race 8 3 New Money Honey P 35% (S was also a 35%)
• Race 9 8 Beholder E 100%
• Race 10 2 Frank Conversation EP 43%

 

[gotbeer]

So what does it mean for Saturday?  A big mess to figure out.  But here are the bias.

Race 1

• E 38%, EP 19%, P 19%, S 24%
• E 2, 6, 8, 13
• EP 1, 5, 9
• P 3, 7. 11
• S, 10, 12
• NA (No Bias available) 4

Race 2

• E 33%, EP 56%, P 11%, S 0%
• E
• EP 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
• P 7
• S 5, 8
• NA

Race 3

• E 38%, EP 19%, P 19%, S 24%
• E 5
• EP 1, 2, 13
• P 3, 6, 9, 11, 12
• S 4, 7, 10, 14
• NA 8

Race 4

• E 60%, EP 27%, P 7%, S 7%
• E 1, 2
• EP 6, 7, 8, 10, 12
• P 4, 5, 9
• S 3, 11
• NA

Race 5

• E 50%, EP 50%, P 0%, S 0%
• E 2, 4, 6, 10
• EP 5, 7
• P 8
• S 1
• NA 3, 9, 11, 12, 13

Race 6

• E 38%, EP 40%, P 14%, S 7%
• E 7
• EP 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9
• P
• S 1, 4
• NA

Race 7

• E 38%, EP 19%, P 19%, S 24%
• E 2
• EP 1, 3, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15
• P
• S 6, 11, 16
• NA 4, 5, 7, 8

Race 8

• E 60%, EP 27%, P 7%, S 7%
• E 2, 7
• EP 1, 4, 6, 8, 10
• P 3, 5
• S, 9, 11
• NA

Race 9

• E 14%, EP 26%, P 29%, S 31%
• E 12
• EP 3, 4, 5, 9
• P 8, 11
• S 1, 2, 6, 10, 13
• NA 7

Race 10

• E 33%, EP 56%, P 11%, S 0%
• E
• EP 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
• P 1, 2, 6, 12, 13
• S 10, 11
• NA

Race 11

• E 12%, EP 19%, P 35%, S 35%
• E 6, 13
• EP 1, 4, 5, 8
• P 2, 9, 11
• S 12
• NA 3, 7, 10, 14

Race 12

• E 48%, EP 33%, P 8%, S 13%
• E 1
• EP 4, 6, 10
• P 2, 5, 8
• S 3, 7, 9
• NA

So take it for what it's worth guys.  Probably not much.  But in some races, if bias holds up, you might be able to throw some horses out of the top spot. 

[gotbeer]

If you go by Fridays Bias.  Anything over 30% has got to be a consider.  Although some races, it's too close in %.  At least race 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 you have to factor in the Bias.

[Homebrewer]

@gotbeer Thanks for the work GB, I know I'll be factoring it in today...these horses are all great and bias makes a real difference on these kind of days. Especially with the new turf that is playing really firm.

[Homebrewer]

  Race 1 6 Ten Blessings E/P 56%

Well, 6 rounded out the super on the downhill, interestingly the inside horses 1 and  2 finished 2nd and 3rd, so the inside is looking good for later.

[Homebrewer]

Race 3

$1 EBX2, 4, 13, 14

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $12.00

[gotbeer]

If the 1,2 comes in race 4. I might seriously get the biggest hard on. And nobody would notice

 

[Homebrewer]

LOL..

I like that 2, especially at 15-1

#3 Valadorna...that was an impressive wide move at Keenland to break her maiden.

$2 EXA 2, 3

$2 EXA 2, 3, 5, 9, 11, 12

 

Wager Total $20.00

[Homebrewer]

Valadorna got caught inside too long or she would have won that one.. 

[Homebrewer]

Race 5

Going with all the logicals here to cash a ticket...and then hope the 1 can get a bit of an upset.

$0.50 TBX 1, 3, 8, 11

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $12.00

 

And then just in case my hunch on the 1 pans out..

$1 EXA 1

$1 EXA  3, 4, 5, 8, 11

Wager Total $5.00

[Homebrewer]

$1 EXA 5, 7

$1 EXA 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9

Wager Total $12.00

Purely an "action" bet..

[Lou]

after eating sh*t yesterday, my buddy and I decide to start today by boxing the 2 longshots and toss in one of the favorites in the JF 

end result was 1/3/6 $5 Ex Box 

[Homebrewer]

4 minutes ago, Lou said:

after eating sh*t yesterday, my buddy and I decide to start today by boxing the 2 longshots and toss in one of the favorites in the JF 

end result was 1/3/6 $5 Ex Box 

Nice hit Lou...1-3-6 are my go to numbers when I have no opinion, they pop up a lot.

[Homebrewer]

Drefong WAS just that good...

[gotbeer]

I might as well be gay with the amount of dick I'm sucking today. 

Fuck it's rough