Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

I responded to Tank

[Adam]

updated

 

 

Breeders Cup Saturday.pdf

Breeders Cup Friday.pdf

[Tank]

5 hours ago, Adam said:

I responded to Tank

You did, and made me feel welcome and important! 

[gotbeer]

Metaboss out of the Turf due to training injury.  Retired.

[gotbeer]

Friday losing picks. 

Race 1

• 12 Arlington House 20/1
• 8 Distinctive B 7/2

Might be overmatched here.  But Arlington House has won 3 out of last 4.  Cutting back in distance.  Won at Del Mar 2 back at 6 1/2 F with a good speed figure.  At 20/1, daymaker.

Race 2

• 3 Watch this cat 5/2
• 6 Parasail 8/1
• 12 Longstocking 5/1

Watch this cat has experience on the downhill, winning his last out.  Has the speed figures, and is improving his speed figures last 3.  Parasail and Longstocking underneath.

Race 3 Wide Open

• 1 Scuba 5/2

Tough race since it's sooooo long.  Just landed on this one since he won at 1 1/2.  Could be anyones race.

Race 4 Wide Open

• 6 Cautious Giant 12/1

Another wide open race.  Lot's of layoffs, and weird stuff.  Landed on Cautious Giant because 2nd off layoff, and he has been facing much tougher in his last several races. 

Race 5

• 11 Ms Wakaya 8/1
• 8 Vali 7/2

Vali has won the last two with very good speed figures.  Ms Wakaya has the style that is track bias, and won last out.

Race 6 Wide Open

• 11 Good Samaratan 9/2
• 5 Made You Look 12/1
• 9 Wellabled 15/1

Good Samaratan won last 2, including a G2 with a good speed figure in the last race.  Made You Look was one of my derby picks.  Don't like the layoff, but he's won a G2.  Wellabled won 3 of 4, with alternating fast speed figures.  If he keeps alternating, this race should be a fast one for him. 

Race 7

• 3 Dortmund 6/5
• 8 Tamarkuz 8/1
• 9 Gun Runner 9/2

Dortmund should win this one.  he's just the most consistent in speed figures.  He's also cutting back in distance.  Tamarkuz had two good races last 2 out.  And Gun Runner has the speed figures to compete.  Although his style is not great for the track bias.

Race 8

• 8 Madam Dancealot 30/1
• 1 Hydrangea 6/1
• 14 La Coronel 9/2

On the turf with lots of Foreign Horses.  Hydrangea First time lasix, first and seconds last 5, good earnings.  La Coronel Won the last two with a good speed figure in last in a G2.  Madam Dancealot.  Moving up in distance and off a layoff.  Cross out the soft race.  And she's had 4/5 with a win or close second.  What struck me is that in the last 2 comments.  Ridden out and Ridden out over 1f out.  Tells me this horse should do well longer.  At 30/1, odds are there, and I think this horse might go higher in odds.

Race 9 - The Main Event of the Weekend

• 1 Songbird 6/5

Then

• 8 Beholder 5/2
• 5 Stellar Wind 5/2

Then

• 3 Curalina 12/1
• 6 Forever Unbridled 12/1
• 7 I'm a Chatterbox 12/1

Songbird will either run away with it, or rate behind the leader and run away with it. 

FYI.  This is the first time in Breeders Cup history that 3 reigning Eclipse Award Winners (2 YO, 3 YO, Fillies and Mares) have faced each other.  Might be the first time in any race.  Either way, this will be one hell of a race.

Race 10 - Wide Open

• 5 Monster Bea 8/1
• 1 Free Rose 3/1
• 4 Oscar Nominated 7/2

Monster Bea, good speed figures and has come close.  Bias is a worry.  Free Rose has had increasing speed figures, winning last 2.  His style plays well with Bias, but layoff.  Oscar Nominated is like Monster Bea  It's the bias that may do him in. 

 

[Adam]

Damn. my auto-toss of the weekend scratched. No Lord Nelson

[Adam]

Breeders Cup Friday

R6 - BC Juvenile Turf

Top Pick - #6 Big Score (8-1)

Big Score doesn't have the highest profile connections, but looked awesome last out - a win over this turf course. He should get a great trip. I don't feel like the Euros are that great in this field. I think the distance is going to be an issue for most of these.

Other Contenders - #3 Channel Maker (30-1), #2 Keep Quiet (12-1), ALL

I can't really eliminate anyone from this field as without a chance. I'm most interested in Channel Maker as a huge longshot to make some noise, but it is likely that I will buy this race.

 

R7 - BC Dirt Mile

Top Pick - #3 Dortmund (6-5)

I'm not a huge fan of this horse but it is hard to imagine him losing this race. He should sit just off Runhappy, and pass him in the far turn. If he moves early or tries to get the lead he'll get in trouble. With Martin Garcia back on, I'm fairly confident he'll get a good ride.

Other Contenders - #8 Tamarkuz (8-1), #5 Accelerate (20-1), #1 Vyjack (10-1)

I'm going to try to make money in this race by tossing Gun Runner (9-2) who, to me, will be a significant underlay. He's a very good three year old, but the three year olds are not that good this year. Dortmund ran a couple lengths behind Pharaoh in the Derby last year. He's been battling with California Chrome this year. Nyquist and Exaggerator are nowhere near as good as those two. Tamarkuz is rounding into form and Mike Smith has gotten used to this horse. Accelerate is a lightly raced, improving three year old with good tactical speed. He may not be good enough but the price will be worth taking a shot he can sneak into the trifecta. Vyjack hasn't been as good on dirt as turf, but his recent form is the best of his career and I trust the connections to put this one in a good spot.

R8 - BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

Top Pick - #4 Spain Burg (5-1)

Spain Burg was privately sold before this race and put right into this field. Listening to the Euro analysts and watching her last race (awesome) I feel like she is going to offer a lot of value in this race.

Other Contenders - #6 Coasted (20-1), #7 Intricately (6-1), #13 Roly Poly (4-1), #14 La Coronel (4-1)

Coasted was awesome in her first two turf races on firm turf. She finished third last out on yielding turf. She could take a big step forward on the Santa Anita surface. Intricately, Roly Poly and La Coronel all looks like live Euros.

R9 - BC Distaff

Top Pick - #5 Stellar Wind (5-2)

Stellar Wind had to use more speed than she likes in her last two and still beat Beholder. She should sit a more relaxed trip this time and fire even better.

Other Contenders - #3 Curalina (12-1), #8 Beholder (3-1), #1 Songbird (6-5)

The big three are awesome, but I think Curalina is going to run a huge race coming in fresh for Pletcher. Beholder should get the ideal trip behind Songbird, which may help her turn the tables on Stellar Wind as she seems to prefer stalking than setting the pace. I will only use Songbird defensively. I'm not a huge BSF guy, but she is so far behind the older horses in here that her silly price makes her virtually unplayable. I wouldn't be surprised if she finished off the board.

Breeders Cup Saturday

R4 - BC Juvenile Fillies

Top Pick - #9 Union Strike (6-1)

Union Strike should be overlooked based on the connections. Her last win was spectacular and she didn't have the easiest time. Jock lost the whip early. This one screams long to me. I think she'll love the two turns. I also think she's going to get a great pace set-up with a number of horses forward. I expect insane fractions and a mid-pack type to run 'em down in the lane.

Other Contenders - ALL, other than #1 Colorful Charades (30-1), who is simply too slow and #6 Champagne Room (20-1), who looks like a sprinter. This is not a great group of Juveniles, but a competitive race nonetheless. I'll probably look to use #2 With Honors (10-1) and #4 Yellow Agate (8-1) in the exotics.

R5 - BC F&M Turf

Top Pick - #3 Seventh Heaven (3-1)

I put Seventh Heaven on even terms with Lady Eli, but the latter, who should be fair odds of 5-2 will likely be bet down to 6-5 or 7-5. Seventh Heaven will present a lot more value and could drift up from the ML.

Other Contenders - #8 Lady Eli (5-2), #11 Queen's Trust (6-1), #12 Pretty Perfect (12-1), #1 Sea Calisi (8-1)

The pace, while it doesn't look super hot, looks hot enough with a few horses wanting the lead on paper. I will not be using a speed horse on any tickets. I'll use Seventh Heaven most heavily, but will use all of my contenders in one way or another. Sea Calisi could step forward at a nice price and be a nice exotics candidate.

R6 - BC Sprint

Top Pick - #9 Limousine Liberal (15-1)

Limousine Liberal is so, so due. He ran an awesome race last out taking AP Indian to the wire. He is so inconsistent but he should get a perfect trip from the outside and I am just not super impressed with the "big 3" in here.

Other Contenders - #3 Delta Bluesman (15-1), #5 AP Indian (4-1), #6 Lord Nelson (5-2), #7 Masochistic (2-1)

Delta Bluesman will be on all of my tickets. Of the big 3, I prefer AP Indian who is seeking a perfect season. Masochistic, I'll only use defensively as he could potentially clear the field and wire them. I'm against Lord Nelson as a win candidate.

R7 - BC Turf Sprint

Top Pick - #11 Undrafted (12-1)

Look, I always pick Undrafted, but this time I think I'm actually onto something. There is a legitimate chance that the pace in this race in nuts. So often on this course, the leaders back up in the stretch. Undrafted is drawn outside, which is great and ran well here in 2014, finishing third by a head. He's coming in in bad form, but there are legitimate excuses for each of his races this year. Velasquez is back on him, like he was in 2014. He was my play of the 2014 BC and I feel like its fate that he's got the same jock and same post in 2016 as he did two years ago when I just missed. Post, Pace and Fate!

Other Contenders - #2 Obviously (6-1), #4 Home Of The Brave (12-1), #5 Karar (15-1), #12 Om (12-1), #14 Celestine (8-1)

This is literally the most insane race I've ever looked at on paper. I may lean on Om and Celestine most outside of Undrafted because of the cutback and post. Could see both winning. Obviously could potentially clear from the inside and get the lead. Must use. Home of The Brave and Karar look like the most live Euros.

R8 - BC Juvenile

Top Pick - #11 Lookin At Lee (20-1)

This is a significant spread race for me. Lookin At Lee finished 2nd in his last two races to the likely favorites in this  race - Classic Empire and Not This Time. He came from the clouds to get 2nd last out. Adds blinkers for the first time and will be a huge price. Worth taking a shot that he makes huge improvement in this spot.

Other Contenders - ALL, with the exception of Term of Art and Star Empire, who both look grossly overmatched. Of the other contenders I might lean on Syndegard (6-1) the most, who has the best chance at getting a lonely lead and taking them all the way around the track.

R9 - BC Turf

Top Pick - #4 Flintshire (5-2)

He's been awesome in the US, especially on Firm turf, which he'll get on Saturday. With some strong Euros, he might be 3rd choice and offer some value. He was moved to the US for THIS race.

Other Contenders - #10 Found (3-1), #12 Highland Reel (3-1), #13 Metaboss (30-1), #7 Ulysses (12-1), #2 Da Big Hoss (20-1)

Found and Highland Reel are the most likely to battle with Flitshire in the stretch. If either one of them falters, Ulysses, who gets firm ground for the first time and Metaboss, who gets to go further than ever before could pick up the pieces. Da Big Hoss loves the distance. If there's chaos, he could surprise us all.

R10 - BC F&M Sprint

Top Pick - #9 Paulassilverlining (10-1)

Paulassilverlining comes in off a win, following a couple of subpar performances at Saratoga, where she was beaten by likely favorite Haveyougoneaway. It's possible she just didn't like the Saratoga track. Go back to April 17th, where she won at this distance in a speed favoring race at Aqueduct. Who'd she beat? Cavorting! Cavorting would wipe this field away like a boogar from her nose.

Other Contenders - #2 Haveyougoneaway (3-1), #3 Tara's Tango (8-1), #6 By The Moon (6-1)

There are no killers in this field. It's likely that the winning BSF comes back in the 90s. The truth is any one of the horses in this field could conceivably win. Might be the best option for the ALL button on Saturday.

R11 - BC Mile

Top Pick - #13 Midnight Storm (12-1)

This will be a spread race for me. As such my top pick will be the longest price. Midnight Storm is in career best form, having won 3 races in a row. 6-4-1-0 at the distance and is most likely to set the pace. I love the win at 9F earlier this year and the ability to sit off the speed in the past with some success. Speed figures are competitive with the rest of the American horses.

Other Contenders - #8 Tepin (3-1), #9 Ironicus (8-1), #10 Limato (7-2), #1 What A View (20-1)

Tepin is the defending champ of this event and should like the Santa Anita turf course. Her second to Photo Call last out is troublesome. Ironicus is a late runner who seems to just miss. This will be his second after the layoff and he'll offer value with the money the favorites are likely to take. Limato looks like the best Euro in this group on form and Timeform figs. Euro analysts have been praising this runner as even classier than Tepin. What A View is 5 for 5 at Santa Anita and should come in completely overlooked. Has won on the lead and from midpack.

R12 - BC Classic

Top Pick - #4 California Chrome (1-1)

While Arrogate is getting a lot of support based on his Travers, Chrome hasn't run a bad race all year and gets better and better with each race. He should run his absolute best on Saturday.

Other Contenders - #10 Arrogate (5-2), #8 Shaman Ghost (20-1), #6 Melatonin (12-1), #2 Frosted (5-1), #9 Hoppertunity (15-1)

With Chrome drawn inside of the other speed - Melatonin and Arrogate, the tactics will be interesting into the first turn. I expect Chrome to sprint from the gate and drift out to the center of the track to force the hand of Melatonin and Arrogate. If they give him the lead he'll take it, if they want it he'll take position. The only way Chrome loses this race is if Victor makes the wrong call early and either gets pinned inside or cooked up in a duel. I think Chrome will end up drafting behind Melatonin, who I expect to want the lead and Arrogate sitting just off. Chrome moves around the far turn just in front of Frosted, who also moves. Chrome  gets passed and cooks Frosted, Melatonin and Arrogate and allows for some late runners to get up for the minor awards.

[Adam]

I reserve the right to make changes.

I'm debating a few of my best bets. Paulassilverlining is my best bet of the weekend but I'm still working on others. 

[gotbeer]

saturdays losers.  I think I like Fridays card better from a betting perspective. 

Race 1 Wide Open

• 4 Harbor Master 6/1
• 12 Hootie 12/1

Ugly way to start the day.  In the end, I went with jockey experience since I couldn't find any more angles.  Just a bleh race.

Race 2

• 4 California Diamond 6/5
• 2 Sizzling Square 3/1

This looks like California Diamonds race to lose.  Probably the most confident single of the day.  I'd use Sizzling Square to complete the exacta.

Race 3 Wide Open

• 9 Prize Exhibit 10/1
• 13 Lady Shipman 5/2

Lady Shipman will be tough.  But I like that Prize Exhibit is moving down in distance.  I especially like it for the downhill.  He has also won a G2 on the downhill.  And his speed figures are right with the rest. 

Race 4 Wide Open

• 2 With Honors 10/1
• 10 Noted and Quoted 9/2
• 4 Yellow Agate 8/1

Track Bias works with Honors.  had a good speed figure last out.  Noted and Quoted also had a good last out, and won over With Honors by 1/2 a length.  Yellow Agate consistently puts up good speed figures, and is 2 for 2. 

Race 5 Wide Open

• 3 Seventh Heaven 3/1
• 4 Avenge 15/1
• 5 Al's Gal 15/1

Seventh Heaven, first time lasix.  4 out of 6 wins.  Avenge won last 3, with good speed figures, and in a G1 on this track at this distance last out.  Al's gal is just consistent, never finishing more than 2 lengths out in his last 10 races. 

Race 6 Wide Open

• 5 AP Indian 4/1
• 6 Lord Nelson 5/2
• 7 Masochistic 2/1

AP Indian is just a burner.  Winning his last 5 with consistent fast speed figures.  Lord Nelson won the last 4, including 3 at this track with fast speed figures.  Masochistic won the last 2 putting up fast speed figures.

Race 7

• Obviously 6/1
• Celestine 8/1

I threw out Lady Shipman on this one.  Obviously has been showing speed at 1m, so I like the cutback to the downhill.  Celestine also is doing the cutback in distance, and has had good numbers the last 2.

Race 8

• 6 Three Rules 8/1
• 9 Practical Joke 6/1

The early look at next years Kentucky Derby.  Three Rules is moving up in class.  But what he has done in Florida is just amazing.  Lowest win distance of 5 lengths, and breaking and flirting with track records.  At 8/1, I would love it, he is the fastest of the fast.  Practical Joke was a game win his last out, beating out Snydergaard. 

Kentucky Derby wise, I have Three Rules, Practical Joke, Snydergaard, Klimt, Gormley, and my buddy has Classic Empire.  Klimt at 22-1, the rest at 60+-1.  But Three Rules is the one I've been highest on. 

Race 9

• 4 Flintshire 5/2
• 5 Ashleyluvssugar 15/1

Flintshire is just the professional.  He'll give it his all till the end, and loves the firm turf.  Ashelyluvssugar is a socal specialist.  And has won twice in G2's at this 1 1/2 mile distance. 

Race 10 Wide Open

• 3 Tara's Tango 8/1
• 9 PaulasSilverLining 10/1
• 2 HaveYouGoneAway 3/1

Tara's Tango and PaulasSilverLining has the track bias working for them.  Paulas has especially been putting up consistent speed figures.  Haveyougoneaway has won the last 3, including a G1.  Layoff is a concern.

Race 11 Wide Open

• 2 Alice Springs 4/1
• 8 Tepin 3/1
• 6 Photo Call 15/1
• 9 Ironicus 8/1

Alice Springs, a foreign horse, that has won last 2 and 3 out of 4 G1's.  Tepin is just Tepin and you can't throw him out.  Photo Call put up a good last out winning a G1.  He's on the outside, but 15-1 is good odds on a chance.  Ironicus has put up good speed figures. 

Race 12

• 4 California Chrome 1/1
• 6 Melatonin 12/1

California Chromes race to lose.  And usually he loses them.  But this time it seems different.  He's just been dominating this year.  Maltonin I put as a chance because he just likes to win on this track.  3/3 in his last 3 on this track, and 3/4 in the last 4. 

[gotbeer]

Betting minimums for Fri/Sat

• $2 win, place, show, DD, pick 6
• $1 exacta, Distaf/Classic Double
• $0.50 tri, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, super hi5
• $0.10 super

Friday

• pick 5 race 1-5
• pick 6 race 4-9
• pick 4 race 6-9

Saturday

• Pick 5 race 1-5
• Pick 4 race 4-7
• Pick 6 race 7-12
• Pick 4 Race 9-12

There may be other pick 4.  This is what was listed in the picture my buddy sent me.

[Tank]

8 hours ago, Adam said:

I reserve the right to make changes.

I'm debating a few of my best bets. Paulassilverlining is my best bet of the weekend but I'm still working on others. 

Paul ass liver lining is a weird name even by horse racing standards.

[Homebrewer]

Well guys here we are on Fri. With all of my time spent on the Cubs the past few days, I'm going to be depending on your insights a lot more than I should be, especially today...but there it is.

So let's make some money so we can spread out a whole bunch in tomorrows races! 

[gotbeer]

Hit the win and super last race.  Of course it pays jack.  

Was going back and forth this race.  But one thing to consider.  At least for brisnet.  Races are playing to track bias quite a bit.  This race should be a e/p (pace off speed) or a speed to win.  5 silent bird, 7 Iron Bob, 8 Prospect park are the e/p.  3 Jazzy times, 4 mach one rules, 9 Navy Hymm are the speed.  

[gotbeer]

fuck.  super paid $75.  I had it written down, but didn't want to spend the money.  /sigh

[Homebrewer]

Are you at the track GB?

[gotbeer]

Track bias. ep 56%, e 33%.

ep 1 rocketann, 4 isa firecracker, 7 start to finish, 11 ms wakaya

e 2 cash prize, 6 vai, 10 how about zero

still like the 11/6

[gotbeer]

Just now, Homebrewer said:

Are you at the track GB?

 

no, doing it from home.  

[gotbeer]

Just now, Homebrewer said:

Are you at the track GB?

I wanted to.  But $10 for admission, $25 for parking.  just too rich for me.  Especially with tomorrow's costs.  Going to the otb for that one.

 

[Homebrewer]

25 for parking...whew.

[gotbeer]

5 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

25 for parking...whew.

Yeah, tell me about it.  It's usually only $4.  So they really jacked it up.

[Homebrewer]

.50 tri box 3/8/9/11

and 8/9/10/11

$24

[Homebrewer]

DAMN!!

That 9 horse just missed 3rd by a nose, she looked like she was going right by and then flattened out at the line...that would have paid buckets..

[Homebrewer]

You liked 4 isa firecracker GB you shoulda had that one?

[gotbeer]

Bias is P or S at 35% each on this one.  I think S is closer and P pacer.

4 Favorable Outcome, 6 Big Score, 7 JS Choice, 10 Bowies Hero, 11 Good Samaritan, 14 Ticonderoga

No pace stats 1 Lancaster Bomber, 8 Intelligence Cross, 12 Rodaini

11 looks good.  5 Made you look is my derby horse.  So I think I'm going to play that exacta.

 

[Homebrewer]

Can someone explain why Ticonderoga is sitting at 19-1??

I'm throwing that horse in at that price...I see a big score sitting in this race...going to play a dime super.

$0.10 SBX 3, 5, 6, 11, 13, 14

Conditional Wager

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Wager Total $36.00