Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

So I have your losers for Oct 1 at Santa Anita.

Race 1

• 1 Colonel Samsen 7/2 maiden race, and this one's last out was good enough for this group.  Also is dropping down in class.
• L/S 11 Curly's Waterfront 4/1 Not really a longshot, but I did this pre odds.  He's been up close his two races.  he might be able to improve on the lead second out on turf.  Or he might set up for a closer like Colonel Samsen.

Race 2

• 8 Hot Sean 8/5 Finished 1/2 length out in closing style, with a high speed figure, and two solid works leading up to this race.
• L/S 3 Eleutheros 9/5 good last workout.  first time starter.

Race 3

• 1 Really a Gem  4/1  Not much in this race.  So I'll take the class dropper with good speed figures.  He also lost by 1/2 length last time he ran on this track against much tougher.

Race 4

• 9 Magic Taste 9/2 Last 5 have come in 1, 2, 3.  Last on this track send 1/2 out with a good speed figure. 
• 7 Basinca 7/2 good speed figures on this course.  Last he came in third by 1/2. 
• L/S 10 Profession Cinch 15/1 Won last in a maiden.  Increasing speed figures.  Iggy. 

Race 5 (wide open race)

• 11 Lyrical Passage 7/2 Highest Brisnet Prime Power
• 4 Irish Goodbye 8/1 drops in class.  at a higher maiden race finished second 1 1/2 out. 
• 2 Farley 6/1 drops in class.  at a higher maiden race finished second by a nose.
• 10 Lucky Bode 12/1 Increasing speed figures. 
• L/S 9 Kimbear 6/1 could run away with it. 

Race 6

• 6 Klimt 6/5 Has been dominating.  Should be a workout for him
• L/S 2/3 5 Straight Fire 9/5 finished a distant 2nd by 4 1/2 length to Klimt last out
• L/S 2/3 4 Midnight Pleasure 6/1 finished a distant 3rd by 5 3/4 length to Klimt last out

Race 7

• 1 California Chrome 2/5  Nothing really to say here
• L/S 2 Dotmund 5/2 Could give Chrome a run.  Is a perfect 5/5 on the Santa Anita surface. 

Race 8 (wide open race)

• 14 Sobradora Inc 6/1 Was perfect till the last race.  Plus a foreigner on turf is always a good angle.
• 4 Avenge 6/1 Won the last 2.  3 out of 6 on the Santa Anita surface. 
• L/S 11 Decked Out 12/1 last time on this track finished 4th by 1/2 length in a g2 with a good speed figure.

Race 9

• 2 Beholder 3/5  13 out of 14 on this track.  Still putting up big numbers.
• L/S 4 Tara's Tango 6/1 Won last out.  Won last two times on this track.  Good speed figures. 

Race 10

• 6 Blitzka 12/1 Won the last 2 with speed figures that are comporable with this race
• 3 Chapagne Room 4/1 Been in the money all three races.  Good speed figures last 2. 

Race 11

• 10 Swift Lady 9/2 Experience on the downhill.  2 firsts and a third by a length
• 3 Belvoir Bay 6/1 Dropping down in class.  Does not have experience in the downhill, but has been running at 1 mile.  Won last g3 in frontrunning fashion.

Plays I will probably do

Race 1 Pick 5 - 1/8/1/9, 7/11, 4, 2, 10 $4

Race 1 and 2 Daily Doubles and pick 3's using the above numbers

Race 6 Pick 6 6/1/14, 4/2/6, 3/10, 3 $16 Might as well play the 3 singles, since I am poor and don't want to spend much.

Race 8 pick 4 14, 4, 11/2/6, 3/10, 3 $6

Race 5 pick 3 All/6/ 1 $12

Race 6 pick 3 6/1/14, 4, 11 $3

Race 6 Double 6/1 $2+

Race 7 pick 3 1/all/2 $14

Probably will chicken out and won't play most of it though.

Edited September 30, 2016 by gotbeer

[Tank]

23 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Tony Reagins is an exercise rider at SA now??

i assumed the horse was actually stolen and this was going to be a BLM thing.

[Homebrewer]

1st at SA.

1-5-9-11 Tri Box.

24.00.

Working on a late P4 

[Homebrewer]

$0.50 P4 4, 12, 14

$0.50 P4 2

$0.50 P4 3, 4, 5, 6, 10

$0.50 P4 1, 3, 7, 10

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $30.00

 

1st race bust...but got to see that beautiful turf course in action...my my that's purdy! Looks like fake turf..

Back to the Ryder Cup action for a while.

[Homebrewer]

LOL...If I had looked differently at that 1st race, I would have probably thrown a buck or two at the horse that finished 2nd.

His name was Sergio, and he was ridden by Garcia.

[Homebrewer]

Klimt..1/9

[Homebrewer]

Klimt defeated at 1/5.

Loose riderless horse for the 1st quarter, so there will be an INQ, but I doubt anything comes of it. 

[gotbeer]

Man, talk about a disappointing day.  I'm just not sure what is up with Beholder.  Again, the jockey did nothing on her till really really late.  It's like they are saving her for the Distaff or they don't want to push her.  My thoughts are, Distaff will be her last race, and they aren't going to push her till that? 

Other disappointment.  Klimt.  Like he couldn't handle the extra distance.  I have a future bet on him for 22-1.  But now I think I'm just going to stay with that.  

But California Chrome does look like a lock for the Classic.

Pretty much 11 races.  6 winners, 5 seconds.  And lots of money lost.  I really should restrain myself and just do win and place bets.

On the bright side.  This is what Three Rules did yesterday.

 

Edited October 2, 2016 by gotbeer

[Adam]

Welp I won't be getting. Anything close to 8-1 on Stellar Wind in the Distaff.

7-2 would be value though IMO. 

That track yesterday was super suped up. Incredible speed bias. I think Klimt ran great GB. 1-5 was stupid. First time going two turns... he's still as good as any 2 YO

[Adam]

Has any horse ever had a worse connections draw than Runhappy? Terrible owner, sociopathic trainer replaced by an incompetent trainer. After finishing 4th against garbage in the GIII Ack Ack on Saturday after setting pretty soft fractions, the connections make jock switch to Gary Stevens and confirm they're going to the BC Dirt Mile, which is two turns.

 

[gotbeer]

18 minutes ago, Adam said:

Has any horse ever had a worse connections draw than Runhappy? Terrible owner, sociopathic trainer replaced by an incompetent trainer. After finishing 4th against garbage in the GIII Ack Ack on Saturday after setting pretty soft fractions, the connections make jock switch to Gary Stevens and confirm they're going to the BC Dirt Mile, which is two turns.

 

Yeah, isn't Runhappy a sprinter?  Mile is going to be a tough one since you will have a lot of defections from the Classic. 

[Adam]

Numbnuts the Matress Man, his owner, spent $1 Million on a Pegasus slot for this horse. They're married to the idea that this sprinter is going to be a router. He's 0-2 and off the board in both races longer than 7F. 

He came off a 9 month layoff. 

I'd want 8-1 on him at a mile. He could win if the track plays like it did Saturday, depending on the pace scenario/rest of the field. But what a disaster. Just keep him sprinting. 

[Lou]

@Adam said "super duped"

what a dork

[Adam]

I said super suped

 

but yeah probably still a dork

[Homebrewer]

I know this is a no duh..but of course It bears watching, because if the speed bias continues for the next couple weeks, it's going to change everything come BC day. Smart trainers and jockeys will adjust tactics accordingly, and versatile horses (Chrome) as always will have an advantage, even more so when there is an obvious bias... but finding big prices underneath is going to take a bit more digging, but that work could really pay off handsomely with the large fields.

[Adam]

Every track seems to tighten up the race track for big days anyhow. Speed kill especially on dirt. 

[gotbeer]

My friend let me know that Creator got sold to Japan.

[Tank]

28 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

My friend let me know that Creator got sold to Japan.

that's not usually a good thing, is it?

[gotbeer]

24 minutes ago, Tank said:

that's not usually a good thing, is it?

It's a lot better now than before.  Usually, now, there are clauses that once their breeding career is done, they are returned back to the U.S.  Ferdinand I believe was the WTF moment that changed things.

[Adam]

Some chinaman from Japan offers you a couple million bucks for a horse that isn't likely to make 25% of that racing for another year or two, you take it!

[Tank]

i have a couple of 8th grade boys i'd like to paint brown and sell to the japanese. think honorable biznessman would notice? maybe i'll need to paint a white star on their chest, too.

[Lou]

On October 5, 2016 at 8:21 AM, Adam said:

I said super suped

 

but yeah probably still a dork

I knew that

 

stupid thumb 

[Adam]

The Breeders Cup preps are over.

Licking my chops to bet Undrafted in the Turf Sprint. Just missed at 13-1 in 2014. He's finished off the board in his last couple races. 

Loves 6.5 Furlongs. 

Check out how much ground he makes up in the stretch on Saturday. He's #9. 

 

[Adam]

Stonetastic in the F&M sprint might be worth a bet back on the SA surface. She's #2

 

[Homebrewer]

Woodbine This Weekend

My Woodbine Canadian International Late P4 Ticket

---

October 14, 2016 | By Dustin Fabian

Two of Sunday’s best bets take place at Woodbine, where their Late Pick 4 carries a hefty $250K Guarantee and they also feature a mandatory payout of their massive Super Hi-5 Jackpot Carryover. That means some very lucky bettors are going to get paid this weekend – why shouldn’t it be you?

Plus, when you hit the Late Pick 4 at Xpressbet, you’ll split 1 Million Points as part of our 40 Million Points Giveaway. Follow that link to learn more and register for the contest. You won’t regret it. We’ve already given out more than 15 Million Points!

Here’s how I’m playing the Late Pick 4 –

Race 8 (4:56PM ET) – E.P. Taylor Stakes (Gr I; 500k) – 3YO+ Fillies & Mares – 1 1/4 Miles Turf
What an exciting field! Six of these are making their North American debut, and of the contingent from this side of the pond, Suffused, Rainha Da Bateria and Guapaza have exceptional resumes. On accomplishment alone, this year’s international team doesn’t appear to be overwhelmingly deep. Only one (Parvaneh), won a Group 2 race this year, and three enter this off Group 3 victories. The confidently-named Best In The World goes out for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, so that is a filly I feel you have to use. Of the North Americans, I’ve always really liked Suffused, and Rainha Da Bateria has rounded into a very nice filly for Chad Brown. I’ll use those two with the best of the Euros and hope to start out the sequence with a ‘W.’

Race 9 (5:40PM ET) – Pattison Canadian International (Gr I; 1M) – 3YO+ - 1 1/2 Miles Turf
The day’s feature card is the Pattison Canadian International, and a brief look at the recent history of this race indicates a strong advantage for European runners in Canada’s most prestigious distance race. The last six winners were based in Europe, and no North American-conditioned runner has taken the ‘International since Champse Elysees in 2009. Since then, Joshua Tree took the race three times (for three conditioners), Sarah Lynx was victorious in 2011 and Sir Michael Stoute won the last two editions, with Hillstar (2014) and Cannock Chase (2015).

And, unfortunately for the US runners, this year’s European contingent appears as strong as ever. The aforementioned Mr. Stoute is represented by Dartmouth, who is 7-for-14 in his career. He won the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and just missed last out in a Grade 3 at Newbury. Aidan O’Brien’s Idaho won the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York and most recently unseated the rider as the heavy favorite in the Group 1 St Leger at Doncaster. The world’s top rider, Ryan Moore, only adds to the appeal. Erupt also ships in, and he’s 4-for-11 in his career, with a victory in last year’s Group 1 Grand Prix of Paris. And the German-based Protectionist may be the best of them. He won the Melbourne Cup in 2014 and brings a three-race winning streak to North America. He absolutely would not be a shock. Needless to say, I’m going to use all four of the Europeans. And only the four Europeans. Nobody in this American contingent intrigues me and I think Europe has this one in the bag…assuming one of the four fires their best race.

Race 10 (6:14PM ET) – Allowance (58k) – 3YO+ - 6 1/2 Furlongs
Since I went deep in the first two legs, I’m going to need to pare things down from here. And that’s always easier said than done. This is a tricky first-level allowance, but I think we can keep our ticket at just two horses. Norm McKnight’s Touch of Disney is the top pick. I think he has a huge tactical edge over this group, and given his last three races, he is in peak form. He’s earned Beyers of 82 and 91 in his last two starts and is two for his last five on this strip. I’m also going to use Opportunity Rocks for Catherine Day-Phillips. He never had a chance last out in his most recent start, and I expect Eurico Rosa Da Silva to put him on the lead (or close to it) here. He broke his maiden two back and could be the right play in a relatively mediocre bunch.

Race 11 (6:45PM ET) - $20K Claiming (24k) – 3YO+ - 1 1/16 Miles
This race is an important one! Not only is it the payout leg of the Late Pick 4, but it’s also the Super Hi-5 Jackpot Carryover Mandatory Payout race. So get to know these runners early and often. This is a race you need to hit. I’m going to go four-deep in my Pick 4. After all, that 20-cent base allows me to spread when necessary. I love just about every horse Rafael Hernandez is riding up at Woodbine, so Seize the Bay makes my ticket, despite his unfortunate 1-for-15 career record. Durango Flier makes the cut as well for Reade Baker (he’s 1-for-22, though) and I’ll also take the 1-for-17 Frascati Gold, who makes his second start off a year-long layoff. Finally, recent maiden winner, Philly Completely, makes the cut. I liked his win last out and sometimes a maiden win is just the confidence some of these horses need when they’re stepping up in class. Especially against a N2L field.

My Ticket
Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Race 9: 3, 5, 8, 9
Race 10: 3, 8
Race 11: 1, 2, 5, 6
Total Ticket: $38.40 for 20-cents