Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

Enhanced Pick 6 to debut with opening of Del Mar's Fall race meeting

Thoughts?  Although I wish they would make the pick 6 $0.50.  Even $1.  $2 is just too much, and really only opens it up for those with deep pockets.

5 of 6 payouts will be considerably smaller, that's a drawback....but considering I have seldom played P6 and the best I've done is a couple of 5 of 6 wins, it really isn't something I look at very often. Most times I've played the P6 I've been at the track, was there early or was bored between races, and did it for something to do.

 

[Adam]

It is an absolutely terrible idea. The big money players will not play this until mandatory payout day and even then handle will be down so much it might not even be worth it. This is probably the worst racing idea I've ever seen. I'm sure the creators illogically dream of a $10 Million mandatory payout day. But it won't happen. It works at Gulfstream because there is seldom a sequence that doesn't include at least 3 $4-$8 horses. Very difficult to have a single winner in those scenarios. At a competitive meet like DM you'll never get a 25 day+ carryover. 

 

[gotbeer]

44 minutes ago, Adam said:

It is an absolutely terrible idea. The big money players will not play this until mandatory payout day and even then handle will be down so much it might not even be worth it. This is probably the worst racing idea I've ever seen. I'm sure the creators illogically dream of a $10 Million mandatory payout day. But it won't happen. It works at Gulfstream because there is seldom a sequence that doesn't include at least 3 $4-$8 horses. Very difficult to have a single winner in those scenarios. At a competitive meet like DM you'll never get a 25 day+ carryover. 

 

 

Actually, I think at Gulfstream and Golden Gate the reason is simple why they have $10 million closing day payouts.

$0.20 pick 6.  That makes it so that there will almost always be a carryover.  And not because nobody hits, but because you have multiple winners every day.  You get 10x more bets with a $0.20 pick 6 than a $2 pick 6.  To play 2 horses a race, for 6 races will cost $12.80 at Gulfstream, which for your average bettor is very playable, and probably playable by 95% of the bettors.  At Santa Anita/Del Mar, it's $128.  And that is discouraging to probably 90% of the betting public.  For instance, if you play 3 horses a race, for 6 races, it's $145.80.  And playing 3 horses instead of 2 is a huge advantage. And playing 4 horses a race for 6 races is $819.20.  And you know those syndicates will have no problem dropping that much.  Heck, I think that time when the jackpot was hit the day before closing day, the guy dropped $10k or 30k on a ticket.  10k is like picking 6 horses a race for 6 races.

At $2, while you will have some carryovers due to multiple winners.  I think you will have just as many single ticket winners, and you will have just as many no winner carryovers.  I don't think 15% will swing it to make more people play, because those people will only play when there is a multiple no winner carryover anyways, when 85% of the pot is up for grabs. 

Really, if they wanted to get creative.  They should have a jackpot pick 8 for $0.10 and leave the pick 6 alone.  2 horses a race is only $25.60. 

Edited September 23, 2016 by gotbeer

[Adam]

Yeah keeping it $2 makes no sense. I would rather they add new bets than replace others.

[Homebrewer]

A few longshot ideas for tomorrow. ( I already had my eye on Who's Out in the sprint)

 

September 23, 2016 | By Dustin Fabian

This weekend’s ‘Main Event’ (or this year, Co-Main Events) takes place at Parx Racing, just outside of Philadelphia. That’s where Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist, and Preakness/Haskell champ, Exaggerator, will rekindle their rivalry in the Grade 2, $1.25M Pennsylvania Derby. Couple that with Songbird’s tussle with Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia in the Grade 1, $1M Cotillion and Saturday’s races are ones you won’t want to miss.

Xpressbet customers that hit Parx’s All-Stakes Pick 4 (Races 8 – 11) will Split 1 Million XB Rewards Points. That wager gets underway at 3:41PM ET.

First post at Parx is 12:25PM ET, and the Cotillion and PA Derby are set for 4:55PM ET and 5:45PM ET, respectively.

Here are a list of five longshots I’ve identified on the card that are worth considering at a fair price.

Race 5 - #4 Flashy Kyem (8/1)
Race 5 is a first-level allowance, and with big name trainers and jockeys like Tony Dutrow, Ed Plesa, Javier Castellano and Paco Lopez among the entry sheet, it’s likely that a few of the local horses will get lost in the wagering. Dutrow ships Gloves Off (5/2) in from his base at Fair Hill, by way of a start at Saratoga, and Castellano is aboard, so you know he’ll take money. And Dr Blarney (5/1) is a Massachusetts-bred that has won five straight races at Suffolk and Finger Lakes by a combined 64 ½-lengths. You read that right. 64 ½-lengths. Granted, four of those races were against state-breds, so the competition can be called into question. And that leaves me with my pick, Flashy Kyem (8/1) at a gaudy 8/1 morning line. He’s in the Trifecta in 5-of-6 at Parx and stretched out well last time to miss by just ½-length in his route debut. I think he can get a great trip from upper-midpack, just behind the speed and will be tough to deny turning for home.

Race 8 – PA Derby Championship - #1 Cyrus Alexander (6/1)
In just a seven-horse field, value is in the eye of the beholder. And if I can beat Tale of Life (3/1) and Mr. Jordan (2/1) here, I think I’ll get paid. Mr. Jordan is the type of favorite I just don’t trust. He’s a speedster that has problems sealing the deal (as evidenced by eight straight defeats) and 2/1 is just too short on him. Cyrus Alexander (6/1) has been poking around in graded company for most of this year, and while he’s not flashy, his resume does include a victory in the Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap and a runner-up effort last out in the Grade 3 Longacres Mile. He’s the type of horse that needs some luck, but Rafael Bejarano is one of the best in the business and I think he can stalk the early pace and grind past them turning for home. At 6/1, he’s incredibly live.

Race 9 – Gallant Bob Stakes - #11 Who’s Out (12/1)
With most of the speed – Navy Hymn (5/1), Threefiveindia (7/2) and Noholdingback Bear (5/2) – drawn inside, this race could develop into a speed duel of which there are no winners. The real winners would be the closers, chief among them being California shipper, Who’s Out (12/1). The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained, Mike Smith-ridden son of Tale of Ekati was the heavy 6/5 favorite last out in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. Unfortunately, he didn’t take too kindly to two-turn racing. He gets back to sprinting today (he’s 5 – 2 – 2 – 0 around one-turn) and with the right setup and a return to his back-to-back 97 Beyers over the summer, he’s going to be in the equation.

Race 10 – Cotillion Stakes - #1 Carina Mia (5/1)
Sure, betting a horse at 5/1 isn’t really a ‘longshot play,’ but I’ll give myself a pass here if I’m betting her to beat Songbird (1/2). So, my take on Carina Mia (5/1) is this. I expect Mike Smith (Songbird) and Javier Castellano (Cathryn Sophia, 5/2) to engage in their own cat-and-mouse game, just as Carina Mia and Songbird did two starts back in the CCA Oaks. Things didn’t work out for ‘Mia that day, but I like the fact that Julien Leparoux is back (after Joel Rosario rode last out in the Ballerina) and I expect Leparoux to take her a bit further back and make one big run at them after (hopefully) Cathryn Sophia and Songbird have locked up early. If they let Songbird get away easy, she’ll be long gone. If I can get Carina Mia at 5/1, at least I’m getting some value on a high quality filly.

Race 11 – Pennsylvania Derby - #10 Sunny Ridge (12/1)
Don’t get me wrong. I think Nyquist (5/2) is your Pennsylvania Derby winner. He drew outside and I think Doug O’Neill has finally accepted that this isn’t the type of horse that you can just throw on the lead through blistering fractions and have him kick on with it. He’s still perfect (7-for-7) on fast tracks, which adds to the appeal. That said, with #1 Awesome Slew (10/1) and #5 Cupid (5/1) signed on, there is a lot of speed in here, so they won’t be walking. That could set things up for a closer and the one I like most is Sunny Ridge (12/1). He has been expertly handled by Jason Servis to the tune of $659K in earnings and was a strong 3rd in the Haskell off a 4 ½-month layoff. I expect Joe Bravo to take him back off the pace and make one run at them. If they go to fast and the speed fizzles, and if Exaggerator (9/2) runs to his 2-for-9 record on fast tracks, I think Sunny Ridge will be right there at the finish. At the very least, he should be in the Trifecta.

[Adam]

I'm considering playing a pick 4 and pick 3

$0.50 Pick 4 - Race 8-11 ($4.00)

1,7 // 2,11 // 5 // 2,9

$20.00 Pick 3 - Race 9-11 ($20.00)

11 // 5 // 9

[Homebrewer]

4 minutes ago, Adam said:

I'm considering playing a pick 4 and pick 3

$0.50 Pick 4 - Race 8-11 ($4.00)

1,7 // 2,11 // 5 // 2,9

$20.00 Pick 3 - Race 9-11 ($20.00)

11 // 5 // 9

So you are on Who's Out and Cyrus Alexander already. Cyrus caught my attention also, I think it's the name. Did he run at Del Mar this year too? Man that horse is a frequent flier. Lone Star, Longacres..now to Parx..

That pick 4 could prove real profitable if you can nail it with a couple of the prices.

[Adam]

Cyrus Alexander is uber-talented, but so green and unprofessional. If he runs straight he could win this easily. You can't trust him though. He's a retard. Tale Of Life is the more likely winner IMO.

 

LOL @ Mr. Jordan. 8 race losing streak. GL if you want him at all. 

[Adam]

Who's Out beat Jazzy Times 3 back. Baffert said that Jazzy Times would have beaten Defrong in the King's Bishop. Outside post. 12-1 ML. Thank you!

[Adam]

I'm not messing with any non-CA horses in the PA Derby. 

[gotbeer]

Pfft. 

• Race 8 all (7)
• Race 9 all (11)
• Race 10 5 Songbird
• Race 11 all (12)

$462 ticket.  Who's with me.  I got a dollar to chip in.  Just need 461 more people.

But just looking at names and sucking at picking

• Race 8 7 Tale of Life
• Race 9 4 Navy Hymm, 11 Who's Out
• Race 10 5 Songbird
• Race 11 All (12)

$12 ticket.  I just don't like the big race.  Just has a feel of a huge upset.  Don't like singling race 8.  But if I get knocked out, play the pick 3.  So I'm going to try and make it into a $6 daily double.

Of course I won't play either ticket.  So they will win.  If at the last minute I decide to play the ticket, then I will lose.

[Homebrewer]

Parx is a weird track. I equate it with Los Al...night racing when the rest of the real racetracks are done. I don't really know when or how they raised the scratch to run races like tomorrow.

I would strongly suggest watching some of the early races there tomorrow.

One thing I know for a fact, and that's what I would, and will, do, which is not risk any amount of money that depends on one favorite coming in, not even Songbird. These are preps for the BC and nobody is going to waste any energy with a favorite that doesn't get a perfect trip. These are rich workouts, worth running in, but not worth your star horse not getting to the BC.

I expect a strange day,  maybe a chalk fest, maybe a favorite doesn't win all day...but I myself, wouldn't risk much for anything that isn't really high reward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Adam]

I have the same feeling about the derby but every time I spread or get cute a west coast horse wins. I might include sunny ridge because that horse could have matured a lot the last few months.

the fillies will leave it all on the line tho I think. Carina Mia darts to the lead. Songbird and Cathryn Sophia sit 1-2 lengths off and it's a sprint for the wire. I fully expect Songbird to destroy some souls tomorrow.

I doubt I'll get to see much racing as I've got quite a bit going on

 

 

[Homebrewer]

11 hours ago, Adam said:

I have the same feeling about the derby but every time I spread or get cute a west coast horse wins. I might include sunny ridge because that horse could have matured a lot the last few months.

the fillies will leave it all on the line tho I think. Carina Mia darts to the lead. Songbird and Cathryn Sophia sit 1-2 lengths off and it's a sprint for the wire. I fully expect Songbird to destroy some souls tomorrow.

I doubt I'll get to see much racing as I've got quite a bit going on

 

 

I doubt I'll get to see much racing as I've got quite a bit going on....

Same here. I'm going to make a few bets and then I'm headed out for Oktoberfest put on by the Yosemite employees up near the park. It's one of the biggest events for the locals up here, and I forgot about it until someone called me last night wondering what time I was headed up there.

So...I'll be watching replays tonight (more likely tomorrow morning, chances are good I won't make it home tonight) and pretending the races are live. 

[Homebrewer]

That 11th race kinda scares me, so I spread it out some. Exaggerator is going to win on a dry track one day and this could be the one. Gun Runner can certainly win this one also.

 

Races 8-11

$0.50 P4  1, 2, 4, 7

$0.50 P4  4, 11

$0.50 P4  1, 2, 5

$0.50 P4  2, 5, 7, 9

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $48.00

[Homebrewer]

Wish I had time to look at these races today, pretty big carryovers.

Hi David,

We thought you'd like to know that there are two carryovers on Saturday, September 24, 2016. Arlington has a Super High Five Jackpot carryover that is worth $249,036 starting with race 8. Also, there is a Super High Five Jackpot carryover at Woodbine for $241,420 in race 10.                            

 

[Adam]

Worth throwing a buck at em no matter what. Better odds than the lottery

[Homebrewer]

12 minutes ago, Adam said:

Worth throwing a buck at em no matter what. Better odds than the lottery

This is true....

Just watched a race at Parx on the main track. It looks deep and sandy, fwiw.

25-1 speed went wire to wire and nobody made much of a move on him, again fwiw.

[gotbeer]

Some big numbers winning at Parx so far.  Through 6,  $79, $46, and $54 winners.

[Adam]

Out of the pick 4. Alive to a back up pick 3. Need 5 / 8,9

[gotbeer]

15 hours ago, Adam said:

I have the same feeling about the derby but every time I spread or get cute a west coast horse wins. I might include sunny ridge because that horse could have matured a lot the last few months.

the fillies will leave it all on the line tho I think. Carina Mia darts to the lead. Songbird and Cathryn Sophia sit 1-2 lengths off and it's a sprint for the wire. I fully expect Songbird to destroy some souls tomorrow.

I doubt I'll get to see much racing as I've got quite a bit going on

 

 

 

Pretty much describes what Songbird did today.

[Adam]

So good. Should add a point or two to Stellar Winds price

[Homebrewer]

Horsephotos‏@HorsephotosCom 21h21 hours ago

California Chrome galloped & paddock schooled this morning at Santa Anita, prepping for Saturday's G1 Awesome Again.pic.twitter.com/Cef78GYg8L

[Homebrewer]

Tony Reagins is an exercise rider at SA now??

[Adam]

Most of the preps for the BC are this weekend.

A couple horses I want to run well but not win - Stellar Wind and XY Jet. I want to maximize BC odds. Also I hope Runhappy romps in the Ack Ack. I want to play against him in a month.