Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Alright, since I'm so busy at work and with two young children and with home remodel I can't help but think about the Breeder's Cup. It is my light at the end of the tunnel. I cannot wait!

That said, here are the horses I'm looking forward to betting at this point in time. Holding off on the Juvenile divisions at this point. Need to see some two-turn form. 

FRIDAY

Dirt Mile - Runhappy and possibly Frosted are pointed to this race. I would probably use both defensively, but I will try to beat them. I imagine Dortmund and American Freedom will end up here for Baffert. I'd use them both equally, leaning pretty heavily on Dortmund. If Nyquist goes here he'd interest me at the right price. 

Distaff - I can't wait to play Stellar Wind in this race. If Beholder, Songbird, Cavorting, Curlina, et al show up here, they will all take money. Stellar Wind should be 5-1 or better. Love her in this spot.

SATURDAY

Turf Sprint - I am married to Undrafted. I bet him in 2014 at 13-1 and he came in third, beaten a head. I've bet him a few times since with no success. He owes me! He's had a not so great year and might be a nice price again this year. 6.5F hits him perfectly and I will be all over him if he's 4-1 or better. 

Mile - Tepin will be short and certainly a must use, but I want to use the CA horses - What A View and Midnight Storm, who have both been awesome this year. 

Sprint - I think this will be the most competitive of the BC races this year. It will come down to price. I am very interested in XY Jet, particularly if he goes overlooked by bettors. AP Indian, Lord Nelson and Masochistic will take a lot of money. XY Jet is a fast mofo. 

Turf - Flintshire may offer some decent value in this race if all of the international horses show up. I have a hard time seeing him losing this race. He likes it firm and there figures to be quite a bit of pace. 

Classic - California Chrome. Too versatile. Too experienced. Too good. 

[Homebrewer]

Classic - California Chrome. Too versatile. Too experienced. Too good. 

touché

Will cement himself in the best horse ever discussion with a win there.

 

[gotbeer]

Isn't Flintshire an International Horse?

[Homebrewer]

2 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Isn't Flintshire an International Horse?

yeah...but he's been in the states for a while. Owned by The Shiek- Juddmont (Arogate)

[Adam]

Since Saratoga last year Flintshire has been in Chad Browns barn. Most international horses come here because they perform much better on firm turf.

The horse who won the 2014 turf (can't remember his name) was a below average European runner who was a superstar here.

[Homebrewer]

Santa Anita's new turf course is open for business

Los Angeles Times•September 15, 2016

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-santa-anita-turf-course-20160915-snap-story.html

Santa Anita’s new turf course is open for business. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith took Curlin Rules onto the new surface just before 10 a.m. Thursday for the first official workout on the fully rebuilt course. Smith, who usually accentuates the positive, didn’t go off-script when asked about the surface. “This is just like [Masters’ home] Augusta [National Golf Club],” Smith told the Santa Anita publicity department. “This colt seemed to really like it. It’s like a brand-new putting green, and it’s only going to get better and better.” Smith took the 3-year-old colt trained by John Sadler through a half-mile in 48.80 seconds. The opening quarter was a workmanlike 24.40. The course is a mix of....

 

[gotbeer]

From that picture, looks like the turf is a lot shorter than before.  Even during season, they kept the grass pretty long.  

also, FYI.  My buddy said that the futures for the derby are out in Vegas.  /sigh.  Klimt 25-1.   Three Rules 75-1.  I asked him to take a picture of the sheets when he gets them.  Hopefully today or tomorrow.

[Homebrewer]

32 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

From that picture, looks like the turf is a lot shorter than before.  Even during season, they kept the grass pretty long.  

also, FYI.  My buddy said that the futures for the derby are out in Vegas.  /sigh.  Klimt 25-1.   Three Rules 75-1.  I asked him to take a picture of the sheets when he gets them.  Hopefully today or tomorrow.

Looks like a fairway, doesn't it. New surfaces are always a concern to everyone, hopefully they got it right. Going to be a good idea to keep an eye on turf races this month, to see how it plays up to the BC.

"Local knowledge" never hurts and often helps us players.

[gotbeer]

Not the greatest of pictures.  Not even sure which casino this is.  Think it's Wynn.

 

Edited September 17, 2016 by gotbeer

[Homebrewer]

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2017_Derby-Wynn_9-14-openers.pdf

Here is the link...it's a PDF file that doesn't translate well to this format.

If it come up sideways for you, right click on it and select ROTATE from the menu. ( I had to do it 3 times to get it right side up) Enlarge by pressing control and + on your keyboard.

It's 2 pages A-Z, scroll down to see both pages.

[gotbeer]

Early.  But my 4 futures bets so far are Klimt 25/1, Three Rules 60/1, Practical Joke 60/1, and Made you Look 175/1.  Made you look is intriguing for me.  Pletcher/Castellano.  But he's only run on turf.  Last out, won by 2 lengths, at 1 1/16 in a G2.  The 1 1/16 is what intrigued me, because he's one of the few that has run over a mile as a 2 year old. 

[Homebrewer]

Tapit horses are all the rage these days, here's one that has looked pretty good so far.

Ticonderoga

Ran a mile and 1/16 in it's first start (finished 2nd) then won at a mile (by 6 L) 2nd time out.

75-1

 

Pedigree |  Siblings |  Progeny

[Edit]

Tapit	Pulpit	A. P. Indy
		Preach
	Tap Your Heels	Unbridled
		Ruby Slippers
Keertana	Johar	Gone West
		Windsharp
	Motokiks	Storm Cat
		Matoki

 

 

http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ticonderoga

[Adam]

When you watch turf races in other parts of the country the grass looks super long and tore up. In CA it always looks like a pool table. It will be interesting to see how speed does in October leading up to the BC. 

[gotbeer]

After horse racing stops at Los Alamitos Race Course, what happens to the 170 acres?

 

You know what they say.  Where there is smoke, there is fire.  

[gotbeer]

Longtime Friend On Maria Borell: ‘She Is Stopping At Nothing’

 

Talk about a psycho. 

[Adam]

She's nuts man. After she was fired by the Runhappy owners there was this huge outpouring of sympathy from the racing community on twitter. People were attacking the owners of the horse trying to help this chick. She has to be a sociopath. Like this shit would never come out. 

Anyway. DRF has BC analysis and MLs out.

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

 

 

[gotbeer]

Songbird vs Beholder.  The race I'm looking forward too.  Wonder what gen admin tickets on Friday will be?

[Adam]

$50 for reserved seats on Sat. Probably $25

[Homebrewer]

16 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Songbird vs Beholder.  The race I'm looking forward too.  Wonder what gen admin tickets on Friday will be?

I see Beholder is an also eligible for the classic too. They should probably stick to the Distaff, but it's going to be tempting for them if she can also go in the Classic. 

What a field for the Classic, my god.

[Homebrewer]

17 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Longtime Friend On Maria Borell: ‘She Is Stopping At Nothing’

 

Talk about a psycho. 

I wonder if she is any relation to Calvin. The article doesn't say anything about it.

[gotbeer]

28 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

I wonder if she is any relation to Calvin. The article doesn't say anything about it.

No, a previous article when it first broke made it clear there was no relation.

[Homebrewer]

On ‎9‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 7:05 AM, gotbeer said:

After horse racing stops at Los Alamitos Race Course, what happens to the 170 acres?

 

You know what they say.  Where there is smoke, there is fire.  

This has been an ongoing issue for what seems like a few decades now. I remember playing the golf course that used to be adjacent to the racetrack when I was in HS. (it's gone now) People have been salivating over that land for a long time, and if I'm not mistaken it was almost sold a time or 2.

[gotbeer]

15 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

This has been an ongoing issue for what seems like a few decades now. I remember playing the golf course that used to be adjacent to the racetrack when I was in HS. (it's gone now) People have been salivating over that land for a long time, and if I'm not mistaken it was almost sold a time or 2.

Yeah, the problem is that area isn't that great.  So development is likely.  Just a matter of when.

I'm just glad that the City of Arcadia really put their foot down when Santa Anita was on the market.  And they made it clear that the racetrack would stay a racetrack.  While Stomach isn't the perfect owner.  At least he's not trying to kill the place like Churchill Downs corp does with all of their tracks.

[Adam]

2 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

I see Beholder is an also eligible for the classic too. They should probably stick to the Distaff, but it's going to be tempting for them if she can also go in the Classic. 

What a field for the Classic, my god.

She's a lock for the distaff I think. 

Songbird will be an easy toss in that race unless she runs something spectacular on Saturday. 80% of my plays will be Stellar Wind. 20% Beholder. 

[gotbeer]

Enhanced Pick 6 to debut with opening of Del Mar's Fall race meeting

Thoughts?  Although I wish they would make the pick 6 $0.50.  Even $1.  $2 is just too much, and really only opens it up for those with deep pockets.