Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

10 hours ago, Adam said:

Another very hittable, dare I say "easy" pick 4 sequence to end the card. Gotta get a price in the travers tho.

I was thinking the same thing.  Just glanced through it.  Flintshire a single? 

[Adam]

Flintshire

4-7 horses in the Travers

Miss Temple City, Lady Eli

10,11 in race 13. 

There's a bigger pick 4 starting in race 8 but the late one looks pretty easy. 

[Adam]

But if Exaggerator wins it will pay dick. 

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Flintshire

4-7 horses in the Travers

Miss Temple City, Lady Eli

10,11 in race 13. 

There's a bigger pick 4 starting in race 8 but the late one looks pretty easy. 

I'm probably going to play the 8-11 pick 4.  I like easy, which is usually pretty difficult for me.

[gotbeer]

Here be the losers for the pick 4 at Saratoga on Saturday

Race 8

• 2 Fish Trappe Road 8/1 Cutting back in distance after winning the last grade 3
• 6 Mohaymen 5/1 Cutting back in distance.  He always seems to start well.  So hoping this is his distance
• 13 Drefong 4/1 Moving up in class.  But at each level, he's just dominated. 

Race 9

• 11 A.P. Indian 5/2 Won last 2.  Last being at Saratoga as a G1.  This year, 4/4, with quick speed figures.

Race 10

• 6 Flintshire 1/5  Looks to be the horse to beat.  And he's beat many a few times.

Should be a three horse race?  With 1 Grand Tito and 4 Twilight Eclipse  exacta/Trifecta and probably 2 money Multiplier to complete the super. 

Race 11

• 8 Destin 10/1 Came in 3rd behind Laoban and Governor Malibu last out in a G2 at Saratoga.  I like the comment that he ran on at 1 1/8, so thinking the extra furlong might help?  Also he's done well in 4 out of 5 with good speed figures, with the exception being the Kentucky Derby. 
• 14 Gunrunner 10/1 Throw out the last in the slop.  And you have 3 wins out of 4, with the fourth being the derby.  Speed figures are there, and outside of the last in slop, is getting better.
• 12 Creator 15/1 L/S A big clunker last out.  But he's won the last 2 out of 3, with the 3rd being the Derby.  So if you throw out the last, he looks good.  But I question if he likes the surface.  Just seemed out of character to be that bad last out.

Laoban.  Big last number.  But outside of last race, really hasn't done anything.  That's why I'm throwing him out.  Exaggerator.  Not mud.  (famous last words)  I'm thinking Arrogate, Connect and Laoban go for the front.  not sure if Arrogate can keep up with Laoban, but Laoban has to come from the outside.  I think those three burn each other out, and Destin and Gun Runner just sits and picks up the pieces. 

So there is the losing strategy.

[Adam]

As always, I reserve the right to make changes...

Race 8 - King's Bishop

Multi-Race Strategy -4 Deep

Top Pick - #13 Defrong (4-1) is a new shooter to the three year old scene. Lightly raced. Beat older in an allowance last out by 5 lengths. I like the outside post going 7F. I think 4-1 is a bit short for a win bet but he should offer plenty of value in multis.

Other Contenders - #3 Summer Revolution (6-1) is another new shooter with just two races but ran a 105 Beyer Speed Figure last time, the highest of any 3YO this year. #2 Fish Trappe Road (8-1) is the most accomplished East Coast 3YO one turn horse and has to be respected. #10 Rated R Superstar (20-1) is an improving colt, will be a huge price and has a stakes win at the distance.

Key Tosses - #1 Economic Model: Chad Brown is 0-32 in G1s on dirt. #6 Mohaymen: Has done nothing impressive since the Fountain of Youth and will take money.

Race 9 - Forego

Multi-Race Strategy - 4 Deep

Top Pick - #3 Limousine Liberal (15-1) has been just okay after his 2nd to Runhappy in last year's King's Bishop, which remains his only race at Saratoga. In it he earned a 104 Speed Fig and ran 2nd only to the Eclipse Award winning sprinter. His works look good and he gets a positive rider change. A repeat performance of that effort will put him right there at big odds.

Other Contenders - #11 AP Indian (5-2) might be the elite sprinter in the country. He's 4 for 4 this year and has beaten most of these. #12 Marking (3-1) always gets bet. This might be his best shot at taking down a G1. He was super wide last time when he was beaten a nose by AP Indian. #1 Catalina Red (8-1) is inconsistent but is 3 for 3 at the distance, including a G1 on Derby Day.

Race 10 - Sword Dancer

Multi-Race Strategy - Single

Top Pick - #6 Flintshire (1-5) will absolutely win this race barring injury.

Other Contenders - None. #1 Grand Tito (8-1) to round out a modest exacta.

Race 11 - Travers

Multi-Race Strategy - Aggressive Single for Race 8 Pick 4 ; Spread for Race 10 Pick 4

Top Pick - #4 Governor Malibu (12-1) ran super in The Belmont and in The Jim Dandy. Rumored to be the wise guy horse but his price should be square. Should have a much better pace scenario and the distance should suit him perfectly!

Other Contenders - - #2 American Freedom (6-1) is likely to be bet down to 2nd choice. His Haskell was remarkable. He battled with Nyquist through very fast fractions and stayed well in his toughest challenge. Any step forward and he is going to be extremely tough in this spot. #8 Destin (10-1) feels like a horse who is sitting on a big one after a tough beat in the Belmont and just a so so run in a very strangely run Jim Dandy in which the field allowed a maiden to set ridiculously slow fractions on the front end. #1 Arrogate (10-1) is a lightly raced horse. Many have said he's the prospect in the Baffert barn. Looks to be too much too soon, but the price should reflect that. #7 Exaggerator (3-1) is the best closer and allows us to toss the other closers, who aren't as versatile or fast.

Key Tosses - #10 Connect (4-1). I'll be scratching my head if he's less than 8-1. No business being bet down to 2nd choice. The other closers (see Creator).

Race 12 - The Ballston

Multi-Race Strategy - 2 Deep

Top Pick - #8 Miss Temple City (2-1) beat the boys earlier in the year, ran at Ascot and was a tough luck loser last out. To me, she's clearly the most logical winner if Lady Eli doesn't win.

Other Contenders - #3 Lady Eli (1-1) has missed a lot of time since almost dying. Her story will drag her price way down. You have to think that if there were any question as to her ability to come back, they wouldn't be running her so I expect her to fire her race.  #5 Sentiero Italia (9-2) is 2 for 2 at the Spa and has beat Miss Temple City on a couple of occasions. Probably the horse I fear most on the card.

Race 13 - Turf Allowance

Multi-Race Strategy - 2 Deep

Top Pick - #10 Rooftop View (3-1) drops in class from a bad beat 2nd in a non-graded Stakes into an allowance field. Obscure connections should mean fair odds.

Other Contenders - #11 Kerjillion (8-5) should fire his best 2nd off the layoff, but has been the beaten favorite in his last two.

Race 8-11 Pick 4 - $8.00

2,3,10,13

1,3,11,12

6

4

Race 10 Pick 4 - $10.00

6

1,2,4,7,8

3,8

10,11

[Homebrewer]

On ‎8‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 1:08 PM, Adam said:

I like Governor Malibu some too but I think he'll be the wise guy horse. Connect is a total toss for me. As is Gift Box. And I wouldn't touch anyone from post 12-14

Been reading a lot of stuff and have found only 1 opinion on Gift Box (he's pretty much left out of most people's top horses, not just you Adam)

9) Gift Box (12-1) – As soon as I saw the talented son of Twirling Candy dominate a strong allowance field at Belmont Park in his comeback race this spring, I immediately thought of him as a Travers horse. Trained by top trainer, Chad Brown, I’m sure this has been his goal for a long time. Not rushed in the least, I believe his one race since, a second to stablemate Connect in the Curlin Stakes was merely a means to an end, with that end being August 27 at Saratoga. Connect got the better race set-up that afternoon, but the experience should be just what Gift Box needs to peak on Saturday. He has the tactical speed to find a good position early, no matter the pace, and the explosiveness to take over a race at the right time. To Upset the Travers

 

And with no mud, Exaggerators odds may not be too low to play. Guess we will find out, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him go to 3/1 - 7/2 and if that happens it changes the P4 picture.

[Adam]

He can beat me. I won't feel bad. 

[Homebrewer]

 Desormeaux says Exaggerator just as good on fast track

As the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes 2016 presented by NYRA Bets, Exaggerator's affinity for a wet racetrack has been one of the more prevalent narratives of the Saratoga meet this summer as the multiple graded stakes winner looks to shore up his supremacy in the 3-year-old division in the "Mid-Summer Derby," expected to be contested over a fast track Saturday afternoon.

Indeed, the Curlin colt has posted his three Grade 1 victories - the Santa Anita Derby, Preakness, and Haskell - all on off-going and is 4-for-4 overall on sealed tracks, plus a runner-up finish in a muddy rendering of the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity last fall. Even his second in the Kentucky Derby came on a track that, although listed as "fast," had gotten a little extra moisture just before the race, courtesy of a quick-moving summer storm that swept through the area.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux, however, remained firm in his opinion on Friday morning that track conditions have been merely circumstantial to his colt's success and is relishing the opportunity to dispel the notion that his horse is merely a wet-track specialist once and for all this weekend.

"I've said it before, it's not the off track [he needs], it's the pace, a pace to run at. There should be pace with a [13-horse] field," said Desormeaux, who arrived in Saratoga onThursday afternoon.

Asked if Exaggerator's off-track reputation bothers him, Desormeaux offered a wry, "Yeah, it bothers me all the way to the bank."

Exaggerator has bankrolled $3,571,120.

Attempting to become the ninth Preakness winner and the sixth Haskell winner to go on to victory in the Travers, Exaggerator has remained in top form at his Saratoga training base primarily under the care of assistant trainer Julie Clark.

"I can only read what I see in front of me and I see a maturing horse," said a confident Desormeaux. "He's carried his weight well, his coat color is great, he still has that exuberance to train, he's got a gleam in his eye, good appetite - all those things that we as horsemen look for in judging the readiness of our horse."

With the field down to 13 following the recent defection of Florida Derby runner-up Majesto, this year's Travers remains on track to be one of the largest fields in the Travers history, matching the number of starters in 1965 and 1990 as the second-largest field after the 1977 edition, which saw a record 14 go to post.

"That says to me that there's no one there that other horsemen think is dominant; you're going to stay away when there's dominant horses," Desormeaux said of the field size. "According to the field, maybe they think we're all on the same playing field. But Exaggerator doesn't have anything to prove; he's a dominant horse and, again, it'll be fun to prove his dominance on a dry track."

Source: NYRA Communications
 

 

[Adam]

I won't let him beat me. 

[Homebrewer]

5 hours ago, Adam said:

I won't let him beat me. 

Me either.

At least some of this Saturday of great racing is going to be covered on National TV. Too bad they couldn't do it last weekend for Del Mar and Chrome.

[Homebrewer]

hit the 50c tri in race 5 for 47.00, so already playing with house money..

P3 starting in race 6

$1 P3  3, 5

$1 P3  8, 9

$1 P3  3, 6, 13

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $12.00

[Homebrewer]

Cavorting (5) baby!

Hell of a race..

[Homebrewer]

race 8 3-6-8-13

[Homebrewer]

1 for 3 so far today...but just messing around so far. One thing to notice, the track seems to be playing to closers, or at least horses seem to be able to close on the main track.

 

race 9

Tried to find some value with AP Indian

pray for a longshot..

$1 TRI 11

$1 TRI 1, 3, 8, 9

$1 TRI 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 (all)

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $32.00

[Homebrewer]

Flintshire sure is a machine...

Well, not playing with house money any longer so didn't bet that one.

Travers coming up.

$1 TBX  4, 7, 8, 9

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $24.00

 

$1 TBX  1, 4, 7, 8

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

Wager Total $24.00

 

I'm sucked into the Baffert vortex...he thinks a lot of Arrogate. 

[Homebrewer]

Wow...track record 159.2

But,Hey.... Gift Box finished 4th! 

[Adam]

Alive on my second ticket

[Homebrewer]

7 minutes ago, Adam said:

Alive on my second ticket

to 8-3?

[Adam]

Yeah, 3,8 / 10,11

[Homebrewer]

good luck!

[Adam]

123 beyer for arrogate

 

whoa

[Homebrewer]

So what's the deal with that horse? Did he basically sit out his 3 YO season?

One of the casualties of the universal Jan 1 birthday for all race horses?

Chrome now has even more serious competition for the Classic. Betcha Art Sherman watched that shit and went Oh Fuck..

1 hour ago, Adam said:

123 beyer for arrogate

 

whoa

 

[Homebrewer]

Gonna be a lot of juice speculation, especially with the 1-2 finish.

[Adam]

I don't think anyone knew he was that good but for months on the Steve Byk show they've alluded to Arrogate being the best horse in the barn. Guess they were right. Was not contested on lead tho