Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Pacific Classic Card.pdf

[Adam]

All Stakes Pick 4 looks super hittable. Tough to find value though, 

[Homebrewer]

14 minutes ago, Adam said:

Pacific Classic Card.pdf

Race 1.. #1

Remember Drover from opening day.

[Adam]

The All Stakes Pick 4 includes:

The Fourstar Dave

Alabama

Del Mar Handicap

Pacific Classic

 

 

[gotbeer]

So Songbird is a single.  And work around her. 

Of course, I still don't know who I'm going for, Beholder or Chrome. 

 

[Adam]

Chrome and Hoppertunity

[Homebrewer]

Too bad it doesn't include the Oaks..that looks like a good betting race.

The Handicap might get spread out a little, odds wise..

Flamboyant and Ashleyluvsugar look like exacta box material..Wanstead Gardens likes DM (3-6) 

 

[Adam]

Barring changes, I will definitely play the All Stakes PK 4

Fourstardave: Grand Arch, Ring Weekend, Tourist

Alabama: Songbird

Del Mar Handicap: Metaboss, Flamboyant, Ashleyluvsugar, Finnegan's Wake

Pacific Classic: California Chrome, Hoppertunity

I'll play a few different tickets...

Ticket 1 (All As) 5X

Grand Arch, Tourist // Songbird // Metaboss, Flamboyant // Chrome

Ticket 2 1X

Ring Weekend, Tourist // Songbird // Metaboss, Ashleyluvsugar // Chrome, Hoppertunity

Ticket 3 1X

Tourist // Songbird // Metaboss, Finnegan's Wake // Chrome, Hoppertunity

[Homebrewer]

My bet of the day...

$5 trifecta Chrome w Hoppertunity Dortmund Hard Aces

$30

[Homebrewer]

I'm also thinking Hoppertunity to show is a safe money bet.

Show pools at Del Mar on weekends and big races always seemed to be pretty nice, I'm assuming they still are. If Hopper stays around 8-10 to 1, Could pay 6-7 bucks to show.

[Adam]

Man, the Del Mar Handicap is really the xfactor in the sequence. Honestly, I think Metaboss looked freaking awesome in his last. Talented horse who obviously likes Del Mar and is bred to run for days. And, I think he'll be 3rd or 4th choice. 

I'm going to be on a real small budget. 

I could see the FSD being a shitshow too. I like Grand Arch (horse for course) best their. 

I'm going to have to do some math here.

[Adam]

I reserve the right to change my mind, but sometimes you just have to take a stand. I'll let my pick 4 ride on the boss and spread in the first leg. 

$20 Budget

 

All Stakes Pick 4 - $9.00

FSD: ALL

ALABAMA: Songbird

DMH: Metaboss

PC: California Chrome, Hoppertunity

 

Pacific Classic

$10.00 Quinella - Chrome, Hoppertunity

$1.00 Superfecta - Chrome // Hoppertunity // Beholder // Dortmund

[gotbeer]

Here are the losers for 8/20

Saratoga

• Race 4 2 Scout Leader 8/5
• Race 5 4 Long on Value 3/1
• Race 7 9 Seven Forty Seven 30/1
• Race 8 10 Ava's Kitten 9/5
• Race 9 2 Grand Arch 6/1, 8 Tourist 5/2, ???6 Ring Weekend 3/1
• Race 10 6 Songbird 1/999999999
• Race 11 2 Sanctify 10/1, 11 With Exultation 4/1

Del Mar

• Race 3 2 Boozer 5/2
• Race 4 2 Tough it Out 3/1
• Race 6 ???3 Mokat 7/2
• Race 8 8 Ashleyluvssugar 3/1
• Race 9 1 California Chrome 8/5, 7 Beholder 3/1
• Race 10 8 B Rockett 8/1
• Race 11 10 Gunslinger 5/1

So you all know who to bet against.

[gotbeer]

I'll also be in Vegas next weekend.  So will be looking for the Kentucky Derby futures.  If I find one, will try to post.

[Homebrewer]

Just tuned into Del Mar simulcast to look around, thought I might pick up some info on the track (first race is @4) and make a few bets...and Mandella was schooling Beholder in the paddock. They kept the camera on her for a good 10-15 mins.

Wow, she sure is gorgeous. Calm and alert..getting some treats of some kind. Looks pretty damn good, but horses of her caliber usually do. Really thick for a mare.

I'm going to play the double just for something to do..

in the first #4 Magical Mystery (underlay Baffert)

in the 2nd

#2 Runnito Grunions

#6Dutt Bart....both for obvious reasons.

 

[Homebrewer]

24 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

• Race 5 4 Long on Value 3/1
• Race 7 9 Seven Forty Seven 30/1
• Race 8 10 Ava's Kitten 9/5

I'm with both 5 and 8 (although I'm not a big Kitten-Ramsy fan she probably wins there.)

Gonna have to look at your 30-1 horse.

[Adam]

Del Mar Saturday

 

Race 1 - #9 Malibu Mogul (12-1) makes his first start as a 4 year old. Miller does well off the layoff. 1 for 1 at Del Mar. Big price. #7 Boone Docks (4-1) comes in with great form and could wire the field. #1 Drover Crazy (15-1) was sent early last time. Looks like he'll prefer to sit off a bit.

 

Race 2 - #6 Atomic Action (9-2) ran okay in debut and has been working well since. #9 Lucky Teroda (3-1) will likely be too short. I'm not sure about the surface change. #8 Sir Matador (7-2) should improve off the last.

 

Race 3 - #3 Dream Team (8-1). The jump in class isn't a concern to me. Seems like Baffert just wanted to unload this one last out. Has competitive figs, back class and should be forwardly placed. #5 Willing To Travel (10-1) has hit the board in both Del Mar starts. #2 Boozer (5-2) always gives a good effort.

 

Race 4 - #5 Forest Blue (4-1) cuts back and gets a rider change. #2 Tough It Out (3-1) is one of my favorite Cal Breds. Versatile and has run well at Del Mar. #3 Old Man Lake (15-1) may enjoy the extra distance. In the tri in 5 of 6 races at Del Mar.

 

Race 5 - #11 With Love (7-2) looks as live as any in here. I like the outside post for firsters. #10 Oh Flatter Me (6-1). Let's make it a Hollendorfer exacta! #7 Viva Vegas (3-1). Baffert.

 

Race 6 - #10 Stays In Vegas (5-1) should be a lot closer to the pace this round without a lot of speed to her inside. May go overlooked and drift up from the ML. #3 Mokat (7-2) was super impressive last out. #7 Harmonize (9-2) has kept the best company.

 

Race 7 - #4 Twirling (4-1). Take a shot with Baffert, who almost always fires off the layoff. No real opinions otherwise.

 

Race 8 - #8 Ashleyluvsugar (3-1) has the fewest question marks in my mind. He'll be right there. #4 Metaboss (4-1) looked super his first try on this turf. Even a small step forward and he's right there. #11 Patentar (20-1) might really like the added distance.

 

Race 9 - #1 California Chrome (8-5). I think he'll be able to get off the rail pretty quickly and find a comfortable spot. #2 Hoppertunity (8-1) always gives a good effort and I think there's a good chance the pace sets up for him to hit the exacta. #7 Beholder (3-1) to me is a better bet than Dortmund to contend seriously.

I didn't bother with the last two. 

[Homebrewer]

22 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

in the first #4 Magical Mystery (underlay Baffert)

in the 2nd

#2 Runnito Grunions

#6Dutt Bart....both for obvious reasons.

 

4 got nosed in the final stride...

Looks like a -  Grunion Dutt exacta bet now..

and a 1-2-6-7  (inside outside) tri box (2 year olds, gotta go with the tote)

[Adam]

Dutt Bart!

[Homebrewer]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

Dutt Bart!

@ 8-1 finished SECOND (ran greenly down the lane, but  ran well and one to watch next time out)

Got the tri.

[Homebrewer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Race 6 - #10 Stays In Vegas (5-1) should be a lot closer to the pace this round without a lot of speed to her inside. May go overlooked and drift up from the ML. #3 Mokat (7-2) was super impressive last out. #7 Harmonize (9-2) has kept the best company.

Agree with Stays in Vegas...a win bet if she stays 5-1 or better.

Another thing to note is the jockey change to Prat, who is the leading turf rider at the meet. 

 

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Race 8 - #8 Ashleyluvsugar (3-1) has the fewest question marks in my mind. He'll be right there. #4 Metaboss (4-1) looked super his first try on this turf. Even a small step forward and he's right there. #11 Patentar (20-1) might really like the added distance.

Exacta box Ashley with Flamboyant, might be the ice cold bet of the day.

 

I am more and more thinking that it's going to be a Chrome-Beholder contest, with them looking at each other in the eye down the stretch. Loading up an exacta will be the only way to get value out of the race if you feel the way I do, so that's going to be the way I play it. I think Beholder was really pointed here all along, and Mandella was playing around when he was wishy washy about running her here, after the Hirsh. He knew he would run her here, and I hope we are set up for a 2 horse race in the final 16th. I think Beholder will run Dortmund into the ground in the early going, and he'll be done at the quarter pole...but she will have to hold off Chrome when Dortmund gets passed by him and he comes up to see what she has left.

Well, as someone once said, 'That's the way I see it, Friday August 19"

Looking foreword to this race as much as I have any this year, and if it goes that way, I won't be disappointed by either outcome.

see ya'll tomorrow

 

[gotbeer]

4 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

I am more and more thinking that it's going to be a Chrome-Beholder contest, with them looking at each other in the eye down the stretch. Loading up an exacta will be the only way to get value out of the race if you feel the way I do, so that's going to be the way I play it. I think Beholder was really pointed here all along, and Mandella was playing around when he was wishy washy about running her here, after the Hirsh. He knew he would run her here, and I hope we are set up for a 2 horse race in the final 16th. I think Beholder will run Dortmund into the ground in the early going, and he'll be done at the quarter pole...but she will have to hold off Chrome when Dortmund gets passed by him and he comes up to see what she has left.
 

Personally, looking back at the Hirsch.  If you watch the head on.  Around the turn, the Jockey on Stellar Wind starts whipping her.  Stevens holds steady on Beholder.  Down the stretch, Stellar Wind gets a steady whip.  Until about 150 yards out, Stevens never whips her.  And he only whips her once or twice. 

IMO, I really think that Stevens and the connections were pointing her to this race, and not using her at all except for a workout in the Hirsch.  And pot wise, $300k for the Hirsch, and $1 million for the Pacific. 

I guess we'll see tomorrow. 

[Homebrewer]

Fun fact (or not) If Beholder wins tomorrow, she will be the first to win the PC wearing # 7.

I have a soft spot for both of them. A dead heat would suit me just fine.

I was down there the day Cigar lost and that memory has crossed my mind the past few days.

It was 20 years ago this year....in case you don't remember, here's the story

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/apr/10/the-day-there-was-no-victory-cigar-at-del-mar/

[Homebrewer]

No network coverage of the race that I can find. It's TVG or nothing

That's awful. Bad for racing.

[gotbeer]

WTF. Seven forty seven 20-1 morning line. Currently 9/5 with 20 minutes to go