Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

Haskell: Derby winner Nyquist 6-5 favorite over Exaggerator

https://www.yahoo.com/news/haskell-derby-winner-nyquist-6-5-favorite-over-170227016--spt.html

[Homebrewer]

When it rains...

Just sat down and looked at race 3 Del Mar for a few mins, and hit the Tri for 114.00

Playing one at the spa now..love the .50 Trifecta.

Missed that one, but only because I changed my mind because the horse I liked was washed out and all hyped up,..

of course she won..  

[Adam]

On July 28, 2016 at 0:30 PM, Homebrewer said:

My excitement was tempered a little last night, when I realized that I would be receiving a tax form in the mail shortly..

584.00 on .50

1168 to 1

 

Less than $600 tho so I think you're ok

[gotbeer]

17 minutes ago, Adam said:

Less than $600 tho so I think you're ok

Yup, less than $600. 

[Adam]

Chalkbuster picks!

saratoga - in the sprint stakes #6 Chubalicious and in the Dandy #6 Race Me Home.

Im using both in an NHC qualifier.

 

Holy Boss and Mohaymen are my most likely winners.

Im in ATL headed to the Braves game. Good luck if you're playing today

[Homebrewer]

Ha ha!!

I saw AP Indian's last race and was impressed so used him back, and your Holy Boss for a $10 exacta.

It's not official yet.

Yes!..$58.00 x5

Thanks Adam.

I'm amassing a nice bankroll..gonna be making a withdrawal this week. 

[Homebrewer]

These are great betting races at Saratoga so far this meet. That last one was another example. Wide open contest with no heavy favorite. There were 8 horses and 7 of them were between 3 to 1 and 7 to 1. 8 was 20 something.

When the money is that spread out, it makes for nice pays if you can hit it.

  

 

Program Number	Horse Breed Sire-Dam Owner	Medication Weight Claiming Price Trainer	M/L Odds Jockey	Odds
1 PP 01	ANCHOR DOWN 5 GR/RO R (KY) Tapit - Successful Outlook Alto Racing, LLC	117   Todd Pletcher	5/2 Jose Ortiz	5
2 PP 02	CATALINA RED 4 CH C (FL) Munnings - Lovely Dream Lenci	119   Jorge Navarro	5/1 Luis Saez	7
3 PP 03	DELTA BLUESMAN 6 GR/RO G (FL) Wagon Limit - Smoke Alarm Monster Racing Stables	119   Jorge Navarro	3/1 Emisael Jaramillo	9/2
4 PP 04	A. P. INDIAN 6 B G (KY) Indian Charlie - Ender's Sister Green Lantern Stables LLC	118   Arnaud Delacour	5/1 Joe Bravo	9/2
5 PP 05	HOLY BOSS 4 CH C (KY) Street Boss - Holy Grace Durant	On 119   Steven Asmussen	9/2 John Velazquez	3
6 PP 06	CHUBLICIOUS 5 B G (NJ) Hey Chub - Sassy Broad Gruskos	115   Jorge Navarro	12/1 Antonio Gallardo	6
7 PP 07	REQUITE 4 B C (KY) Warrior's Reward - New Hope Seven Bermuda Limestone Thoroughbreds	116   George Weaver	12/1 Javier Castellano	9/2
8 PP 08	ALL STAR RED 4 CH C (KY) Five Star Day - My Sweet Caroline Carl Lizza Racing Stables, LLC	115   Rudy Rodriguez	20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr.	23

#	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Equip|Med|Weight	Clm$	M/L	Odds
1	ANCHOR DOWN	Jose Ortiz	Todd Pletcher	117	-	5/2	5
2	CATALINA RED	Luis Saez	Jorge Navarro	119	-	5/1	7
3	DELTA BLUESMAN	Emisael Jaramillo	Jorge Navarro	119	-	3/1	9/2
4	A. P. INDIAN	Joe Bravo	Arnaud Delacour	118	-	5/1	9/2
5	HOLY BOSS	John Velazquez	Steven Asmussen	On 119	-	9/2	3
6	CHUBLICIOUS	Antonio Gallardo	Jorge Navarro	115	-	12/1	6
7	REQUITE	Javier Castellano	George Weaver	116	-	12/1	9/2
8	ALL STAR RED	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Rudy Rodriguez	115	-	20/1	23

Medication & Equipment Key

[Homebrewer]

This next one is a heck of a race...

1 PP 01	CREATOR 3 GR/RO C (KY) Tapit - Morena (PER) WinStar Farm LLC and Flay, Bobby	123   Steven Asmussen	3/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr.	5
2 PP 02	LAOBAN 3 DK B/BR C (KY) Uncle Mo - Chattertown McCormick Racing LLC and Southern Equine Stable LLC	117   Eric Guillot	20/1 Jose Ortiz	25
3 PP 03	MOHAYMEN 3 GR/RO C (KY) Tapit - Justwhistledixie Shadwell Stable	121   Kiaran McLaughlin	9/5 Junior Alvarado	6/5
4 PP 04	DESTIN 3 GR/RO C (KY) Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners	121   Todd Pletcher	2/1 Javier Castellano	2
5 PP 05	GOVERNOR MALIBU 3 CH C (NY) Malibu Moon - Akilina Jump Sucker Stable and Oak Bluff Stables	117   Christophe Clement	9/2 Joel Rosario	7/2
6 PP 06	RACE ME HOME (IRE) 3 B C (IRE) Oasis Dream (GB) - Society Selection Albaugh Family Stable	117   Dale Romans	15/1 Luis Saez	17

#	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Equip|Med|Weight	Clm$	M/L	Odds
1	CREATOR	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Steven Asmussen	123	-	3/1	5
2	LAOBAN	Jose Ortiz	Eric Guillot	117	-	20/1	25
3	MOHAYMEN	Junior Alvarado	Kiaran McLaughlin	121	-	9/5	6/5
4	DESTIN	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	121	-	2/1	2
5	GOVERNOR MALIBU	Joel Rosario	Christophe Clement	117	-	9/2	7/2
6	RACE ME HOME (IRE)	Luis Saez	Dale Romans	117	-	15/1	17

Medication & Equipment Key

[Homebrewer]

I'm leaning Destin. No real value in my top picks, (3-4) so I'm going with what's been working an watching the paddock/ post parade for body language. Governor Malibu looks great on the track.

I'm going 4 -5- 1/2/6 in a 1$ tri...just for yuks.

It's post time.

[Homebrewer]

Wow...Laoban wire to wire. Destin and Governor Malibu tight for 2nd-3rd. Mohaymen stumbled out of the gate and never threatened. Creator never kicked..

A maiden wins the Jim Dandy..at 27-1

My eyes are really good right now..Gov Malibu nosed out Destin for the place.

Laoban had a really happy group in the winner's circle. They looked like some home-spun, ranching folks. Good for them!

[gotbeer]

So did Beholder lose?  Or did Mike Smith Stevens do the right thing and saved him for the Pacific in 3 weeks?  It just seemed like Beholder was using it as a work, than trying to win.

Looking back at he replay.  He was pushing her, but not really whipping her.

Edited July 31, 2016 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

Who would have guessed, a horse that is based in California would be such a Mudder.  Exaggerator doing what he does in the slop at Haskell.

 

[Adam]

Looked to me like Beholder and Stevens tried to win. Beat on the square. 

Exaggerator gets another pace meltdown and more slop. What a lucky SOB

[gotbeer]

Thoughts?

Horse Racing Rankings for August 1, 2016

[Adam]

Tough to disagree with any of that.

However, personally I think Cavorting should stick to one turn races.

I don't think Frosted will win a significant race at 10F. I think Dortmund is in the same boat. I think Effinex has the best chance to beat Chrome and I don't think there's anyway he does.

[Adam]

I wonder if Gutierrez loses Nyquist. You can't go 22 and change and expect to win the premier races.

[Homebrewer]

23 hours ago, Adam said:

I wonder if Gutierrez loses Nyquist. You can't go 22 and change and expect to win the premier races.

Speed in the race

It may have been a grey, overcast day at the Jersey Shore, but when an opening quarter-mile was posted in a swift 22.78 seconds, Bryan’s smile beamed like the sun in the Sahara Desert.

“When I saw 22 and change for the first quarter, I’m not going to lie to you, I was extremely excited,” Bryan said. “In making the decision to run in the Haskell, it helped that there was speed in this race with Nyquist and American Freedom.”

Midway down the backstretch, American Freedom edged past Nyquist to take a slim lead, but the real action was happening at the back of the small pack as Exaggerator moved into the picture.

“Down the backstretch, my brother must have been panicking there out at Del Mar with the beach and the sand, but (Exaggerator) really just galloped to them with no encouragement,” said jockey Kent Desormeaux, Keith’s younger brother. “By the time we got to the 3/8ths pole, he showed an exemplary turn of foot. Then he really exploded at quarter pole. It felt like déjà vu from the Preakness.”

‘They went too fast’

As Awesome Slew faded to last and American Freedom maintained his lead over Nyquist, Exaggerator joined the two early leaders from the outside at the eighth pole and edged clear. He drifted in slightly in front of American Freedom, whose rider Rafael Bejarano claimed foul to no avail, but he hit the wire clear of his five rivals, covering the mile-and-an-eighth in 1:48.70 to scoop up an automatic spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic through the “Win and You’re In” program.

“He didn’t come from behind,” Kent Desormeaux said. “They went too fast.”

American Freedom, coming off a decisive victory in the Grade 3 Iowa Derby for Baffert, showed some determination in finishing second two lengths ahead of 31-1 shot Sunny Ridge, who finished a neck in front of the tiring Nyquist.

“The trip was great. The horse was just a little off today,” jockey Mario Gutierrez said about Nyquist. “Any other day, he should have been able to attack the pace. (American Freedom) kept going and I didn’t.”

[Homebrewer]

Might jump into this card on Saturday, or might go down to Oakland to see the Cubs with Arietta pitching against Sonny Gray...It's almost a 6 hr round trip tho...still debating.

Anyhow..This guy likes Noble Bird, and the price will certainly be inviting.

Thoughts?

Ranking the Whitney Contenders

---

August 4, 2016 | By Dustin Fabian

Saturday is a massive day at Saratoga. Well, most days – especially weekends – are huge at Saratoga. But this one, even more so. Why? They’ve got two Grade 1 races (Whitney and Test), five total stakes and $1.6 million in guaranteed wagers. Plus, top horses like Effinex, Frosted, Noble Bird, Off the Tracks, Lewis Bay and March are in action.

Saratoga’s guaranteed wagers include a $1 Million Guaranteed Late Pick 4, a $400K Guaranteed Pick 5 and a $250K Guaranteed Pick 6. The anchor of the card, the $1.25 Million Whitney, goes as Race 10, at 6:18PM ET. Here is a rundown of the contenders, and how we rank their chances.

1. El Kabeir (Terranova/Santana) - 20/1

Why He Could Win: Has won 5-of-15 lifetime with earnings of $877K … Ran better than it appears in the Stephen Foster last out as was too far behind a moderate early pace … Jockey Ricardo Santana is off to a hot start at Saratoga, having already booted home several longshot winners … Receives a 7lb weight allowance from Frosted, Effinex and Noble Bird.

Why He Couldn’t Win: Winless in graded stakes company since March 2015 ... Finished 4th, beaten 2 lengths, in the Gr I Stephen Foster last out against a weaker field … Career high Beyer Speed Figure of 97 does not compare favorably to most rivals … Is 0-for-3 at today’s 1 1/8-mile distance … Doesn’t figure to receive a favorable pace setup.

Bottom Line: He simply isn’t on par with these types of horses and a victory here would come as a significant surprise.

2. Comfort (Pletcher/Velazquez) - 8/1

Why He Could Win: Has won three straight races, including two at Belmont Park … Earned Beyer Speed Figures of 105 and 103 in his last two starts, which compare favorably to several of today’s rivals … Trainer, Todd Pletcher, is a 12-time leading trainer at Saratoga … Pletcher and Velazquez have teamed to win this race three times (2013 – Cross Traffic, 2007 – Lawyer Ron, 2002 – Left Bank) … Is 4-for-5 on a fast dirt track in his career … He figures to receive a comfortable stalking trip from just behind the pacesetters.

Why He Couldn’t Win: Is making his Grade 1 debut and finished 4th, beaten 4 ¾-lengths in his only prior stakes try … Has never faced horses nearly this good … Has not raced in a two-turn race since last April … Has only raced seven times, so he’s much more inexperienced than the majority of today’s rivals.

Bottom Line: If he wins here, it’ll be on talent alone because his class isn’t quite there yet. Might be best to take a wait and see approach, but in a six horse field it wouldn’t be a shock if he ran in the Trifecta.

3. Upstart (Violette/Ortiz Jr.) - 10/1

Why He Could Win: He is one of only two horses in the field with a win at Saratoga … In fact, he has two local victories … He has finished in-the-money in 10-of-14 starts … Was a decent 3rd last out in the Met Mile … Is winless (0-for-3) with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding … Doesn’t have the appearance of a traditional route performer … Career high best Beyer of 108.

Why He Couldn’t Win: Is just 4-for-14 in his career and was beaten by Frosted or Effinex in three of his last four starts … Is 0-for-4 at today’s 1 1/8-mile distance … While his Met Mile performance was decent, he was still beaten 15 ¼-lengths by Frosted … Is 0-for-7 in Grade 1 races in his career, but he did finish first (dq’d to second) in last year’s Florida Derby … The closing style he has employed lately doesn’t seem favorable against this field … Has not broken the 100 Beyer plateau in his last five races.

Bottom Line: He is a gritty horse that rarely fails to deliver a decent effort, but it’s hard to expect he has what it takes to jump up and beat these.

4. Frosted (McLaughlin/Rosario) - 3/5

Why He Could Win: Won the Met Mile last time out by 14 ¼-lengths and earned an exceptionally high 123 Beyer Speed Figure … Has won three of his last five races … Is 3-for-7 with Joel Rosario in the irons, with two Grade 1 wins … Is the only multiple Grade 1 winner in the field … Has yet to finish out of the Exacta while racing at today’s distance … Trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin is off to a hot start at Saratoga, winning with 7-of-16 starters (44%).

Why He Couldn’t Win: His Met Mile performance appears to be an extraordinary outlier on his resume … Previous career high Beyer before the Met was just 106 … Doesn’t figure to receive the same pace setup today and this field is better than that one … Is 0-for-3 at Saratoga (2 seconds) … Has not won a Grade 1 two-turn race since April 2015.

Bottom Line: If he runs back to the Met Mile he wins for fun. But this field is better and at a very short price, he’s worth betting against. Let him prove to us that he’s as good and that the Met wasn’t simply an anomaly.

5. Noble Bird (Casse/Leparoux) - 10/1

Why He Could Win: Is a Grade 1 winner with Beyer Speed Figures of 110 and 108 on his resume … Appears to hold a strong tactical edge as potential lone speed in the race … Is in the Exacta in 2-of-3 tries at this distance … Won the Gr III Pimlico Special earlier this year by 11 ¼-lengths … Gets back to a better distance for him after going far too fast in the one-turn Met Mile.

Why He Couldn’t Win: Has won just one of his last six starts … Finished 9th, beaten 24 ¼-lengths, in this race last year … Has been beaten double-digit lengths in 4-of-6 starts since last August … Julien Leparoux is only 1-for-4 aboard him … Is co-highweight with Effinex and Frosted (124 lbs) ... Is an ‘all or nothing’ type with plenty of clunkers on his resume.

Bottom Line: Upset special. He gets back to his preferred game (routing) and finds a field severely lacking in early speed. If Leparoux can get him to the front and into a nice, easy rhythm, he’ll be tough to deny.

6. Effinex (Jerkens/Smith) - 7/2

Why He Could Win: Has won 9-of-24 starts with earnings of $2.9 million … Is 3-for-5 with a second and a third with Mike Smith aboard … Won the Gr I Clark Handicap last fall and finished second to American Pharoah in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic … Has a penchant for the wire, and has defeated rivals like Tonalist, Hoppertunity, Melatonin and Mubtaahij in his career.

Why He Couldn’t Win: Lost as the heavy favorite in both the Stephen Foster and Santa Anita Handicap earlier this year … Is 0-for-2 in his career at Saratoga … Won the Gr II Suburban by just a neck over an inferior rival (Samraat) … Last five Beyers average to just 101, which is just average with the majority of the field … Outside draw and grinding style caught get him caught wide early.

Bottom Line: Is dangerous and honest, but certainly not flashy. If someone runs off and puts up a big figure, he won’t match them. But if nobody is doing much running down the lane, he’s probably the one to deny.
 

[Homebrewer]

Didn't drive to Oakland so I sat down to look at the odds for the Whitney...and ended up betting the Fasig-Tipton turf stakes.

Got nosed out for the win on the 3, I mean a head-bob...but had the 6-3 exacta 5 times, and it paid a surprising 57.00. Have I mentioned how much I like these bigger fields at Saratoga? Big fields with no heavy favorite, I can't not throw some $$$ at these things.

Frosted is 1-5 in the Whitney so Im going to go to my go-to...50C tri 2-4-5-6 and put 20 across on Noble Bird.(12-1)

[Homebrewer]

Wow...F'n Frosted and Bird went 23..and I'm yelling "too fast", Then 109...really 109?..but somehow Frosted managed to stagger across in the lead. Hell of a run from that horse. He was huffin and puffin but held on.

Not so much for Noble Bird..

[Adam]

Frosted was very impressive. You shouldn't be able to go 1:09 and hold on

[Homebrewer]

On ‎8‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 8:42 PM, Adam said:

Frosted was very impressive. You shouldn't be able to go 1:09 and hold on

No kiddin..when was the last time we saw that happen? I can't think of it. Secratariat maybe.

[Adam]

I did some quick math. He ran the last 3 furlongs in 38 and change. The last 1/8th in 13+. He came home pretty slow. I don't know what that means for him at 10F. I think his inclusion in the classic will guarantee an odds off price on Chrome and will make him more valuable in multis. Frosted is still 0fer at 10F.

He'll certainly be a bet against based on value but I wonder what his tactics will be. The way the Classic division is setting up, unless a Nyquist, American Freedom or Bradester goes, it will take some clever investigation to determine who will go to the lead in that race.  

[Homebrewer]

That's a good question. Can't see them trying that same tactic at a longer distance...but hey..you never know.

I don't think anyone expected Frosted to not only stay with N-Bird, but actually shoot out and lead at the first turn. I figured right away that was going to be it for him. (both of them actually)

He was staggering and lugging in and out the last 8th.

[Adam]

Yep. I think effinex stayed too close to the pace. He was only a few lengths off. Had he sat back further I wonder if he could have come home in 36