Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

I hope you guys are playing a show parlay with my picks

[Homebrewer]

I had to make an unplanned trip down the mountain yesterday so missed the day ..(but I did have In N Out!)

Watched replay with Moonlight Drive who came in 2nd..going to replay race 4.

I wouldn't have had a good day, but I never do at Del Mar opening day...so I'm pretty gun-shy until at least a week and preferably 2 into the meet.

[Homebrewer]

Opening day at the Spa, horse junkies. Looked at this 8th race this morning and it's an interesting affair.

6F Stakes for 2yo fillies, all of whom won 1st time out (well, 2 won 2nd time out) but the point is they have all won early.

Hard to say what will happen when they meet other somewhat talented horses, much of it will be break and trip.

So...I'm going value and jockey and maybe a little breeding.

#3 Rosario 5-1 Uncle Mo

#4 Velasquez 3-1 Tapit

#1 Ortiz  7-2 Speightstown

1-3-4 $5 Exacta box

Throwing the favorite into a .50 tri box 1-3-4-5.

The horses have reached the starting gate...Saratoga 2016.

[Homebrewer]

The Tapit horse (#4) won going away..but I lost.

4-8-9-5 (8 horse went off at 22-1)

Super (with the favorite 4th) paid over 4K.

[Adam]

I had a 4 / 5,9 exacta 

 

DOH!

[Homebrewer]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

I had a 4 / 5,9 exacta 

 

DOH!

OUCH..

[Homebrewer]

Nice capping tho..I wasn't going to use that 5 on top at 8/5 either...not in that kind of race.

[Homebrewer]

Sweet Lorretta will be a horse to watch. She started really badly and still held off horses at the finish.

[Homebrewer]

Im going to chase my money with the 6 here Sky My Sky.

Leparoux- Bernardini- 9-1 (front runner)

10 wps

box her up with Chad Browns 2 and 5 in an exacta.

[Homebrewer]

Must be warm there today..all of these horses look really sweaty.

[Homebrewer]

looks like 5-2-9-6 ..

Oh well, a little money back but not much.

That's all for today.

[Adam]

I only looked at the card for 20 minutes. 4-1 on Sweet Lorreta was a gift.

 

I'm alive to a decent score here in the last to the 5,11,12

[Homebrewer]

P4

5 /186

11/581

12/611

P3

101

357

442

[Adam]

$1 PK 3 + $1 Double to 5

$1 Double to 11,12

[Adam]

If I could go back, I'd bet the 11 here across the board. Rosario and Lewis won at 75% at Saratoga last year ($8.80 ROI). 7-1 is great value

[Homebrewer]

11 looks good on the track, too.

7 (1st time starter) does too.

Good Luck!

[Adam]

I'm glad I didn't play the pick 4. I would not have had the 2 in the first leg. Quite a few 2nds and 3rds for me today. 

[Adam]

Ooohh I also have a 5,11 / 5,11,12 exacta working here

[Homebrewer]

Well you got your P3 and the DD..

Hate it when they make maidens stand in the gate for a late scratch..that's just cruel.

[Adam]

That 6 wasn't impossible for 2nd. 2 year layoff. Class drop. $150K horse. Small/high percentage barn. Top rider. Not kicking myself but I ain't mad.

Tomorrow's card looks amazing. 

[Homebrewer]

First weekend at the spa usually is good.

Chrome and Dortmund at Del Mar tomorrow too.

 

[Adam]

My son's birthday party goes from 10-12 tomorrow so I may not be able to get down until 1:30 or so. I looked at Races 7-11

 

Race 7

10-Ice Cutter (15-1) comes in with good form. This jock-trainer combos was 2 for 3 last year at Saratoga and win at a high percentage this year (38%).

3-Slim Shady (8-1) finished ahead of the 9-5 favorite in a race back in April. Consistently fast speed figs.

2-Inordinate (9-5) is too short to consider on top. Finished first last out but DQ'd.

 

Race 8

3-Tizzarunner (12-1) comes out of the hottest barn in America, 2nd off of the layoff with a lot of back class. May have to run a career best to win here but the price is right to take that gamble. Expect this one to be bet much harder than the ML suggests.

1A-Catapult (5-2) is part of an entry and might be the most likely winner for Chad Brown. Impressive in debut last year and ran okay in the 2016 debut. Will be bet hard. You get another talented horse in you go this route, though.

6-Conquest See Ya (10-1) is another Casse horse. Good form. Definitely consider for underneath.

 

Race 9

3-Conviction (3-1) offers good value as My Man Sam returns from a layoff and will take a lot of money. Conviction is a late bloomer for Pletcher, who kills it at Saratoga.

2-Caydern (9-2) should get the lead in here and have it his own way on the front. Must use in all wagers!

4-My Man Sam (8-5) should have enough to get up for a placing late. Workout reports aren't flattering and my gut says he'll need a race. Would be interested in playing him back in the Travers perhaps, as closers have done well in that one.

 

Race 10

9-Rhaina De Bateria (20-1) ran super in the Just A Game to finish 7th. Went way wide and had a brutal trip. In a wide open race, I'll give a shot to this closer to pick em off late.

6-Dacita (5-1) is going to get bet down based on her win last year at Saratoga. This one needs super firm turf. If she gets it she has a big shot.

2-Miss Temple City (3-1) will be too short. Definitely has a shot based on her performance this year but too many questions coming back from Ascot.

 

Race 11

3-Aripeka (7-2) unlike others in here has been running at this level for a few races and running very well. Right rider up and should get a good trip from the 3-hole.

11-Amen Kitten (12-1) had a rough trip and did little in his last, but previously had been on quite the roll. Wesley Ward means business. Good price in an open field.

2-Winter Springs (5-2) has not performed up to expectations and takes a big drop here. Too big. Very suspicious that the connections would drop her in for a small tag.

[Adam]

Playing the pick 4 ($12)

1,3 / 2,3 / 2,6,9 / 3,11

[Homebrewer]

playing a little 3-4-5-6 tri box at Del Mar Race 1

(like the 4 as a horse for course)

[Homebrewer]

3-5-6 I'll about get my money back..

OK see ya tomorrow (I already liked Dacita tomorrow before reading your picks)

Made a whole $12..