Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

29 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Exchange Wagering.

This was really talked about a few years ago, like it was going to happen any day. Well (although I admit to be somewhat out of the loop as far as racing news goes since I don't watch TVG or whatever it's morphed into the past couple years, as much as I used to) It's been a while since I have heard ANY discussion regarding exchange wagering.

Well, maybe it's really going to happen in the coming year. I've been a proponent of the idea for as long as I've known about it. It will bring a whole new type of fan to the game.

Git er done.

Monmouth Park and the revolution that’s set to be a wagering game-changer

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/monmouth-park-and-revolution-s-set-be-wagering-game-changer/

 

New Jersey has exchange wagering.  It's interesting watching it on TVG.  Really don't understand it much.  At least in NJ, it seems people must be betting the under, because I swear, all the odds are higher than the regular odds.  Except for oddly, the longest shot horses. 

Not sure how horse tracks make their money on exchange wagering though.  I guess it's got to be like sportsbooks, and they someone covers for 3.5, and someone takes the 3-1 odds? 

Also, it seems that exchange is just on win bets, so would they get rid of place and show?  At least on TVG, they never show anything but the win. 

Of course for me, exchange might be a huge bonanza. I'd just pick who I'd think is going to win, and cover the loss on him since he will undoubtably lose.

[Homebrewer]

Some good looking betting races at Belmont. Subarban 1 1/4 M for older horses, and The Oaks 1 1/4 M Turf for F/M.

Especially like the big field for the Oaks (13) Big fields in a million dollar turf race? 

Nice for my kind of betting (Ex-Tri) With the probable favorite (Catch a Glimpse)  looking at 2-1 at least, and some horses that have a chance at 20-30 to 1..it could be juicy.

Last Waltz at 30-1 ML and Harmonize at 10-1 both look appetizing as does Coolmore at 12-1

I'm going to look at it some more but I,m going to build some bets using 4-6-7-9-12-13

 

[Homebrewer]

In an effort to extend that streak to five straight years, Brown has entered three fillies for this year’s edition in Grade 3 winner Pricedtoperfection, Group 3-placed Last Waltz and Grade 3-placed Noble Beauty. “I don’t hold as strong a hand as in previous years, but all three horses are all doing well and we’re taking a different role in not being one of the favorites,” Brown said. “It’s a big field, and it might come down to trip. If I didn’t think it was possible they could get a piece of this million-dollar purse, I wouldn’t run. My philosophy is if they can earn their way into the big races, we like to participate.”

Trainer James Toner, who captured the 2011 Garden City with Winter Memories, will send out Time and Motion, who extended her win streak to three straight when taking the $200,000 Wonder Again Stakes on June 5 on the Belmont inner turf. The second- and third-place runners from that race also are entered Saturday in Harmonize and Last Waltz. “She’s doing terrific,” Toner said. “I’m excited about racing here Saturday.” The deep field also includes Kentucky Oaks runner-up Land Over Sea, a Grade 2 winner on dirt who is set for just the second turf start of her career. -

[Homebrewer]

Adam...your pal Tale of S'avall is running next race (Dwyer Hdp, Race 7 )

also a Laoban sighting.

Economic Model is the heavy favorite (8-5)

I'm liking Swipe at 5-2. If I can get 3-1 I might pull the trigger on a win bet. Already have a tri with Economic-Tale-Swipe-Volentario..

6-7 with 6-7-2-3 with 6-7-2-3

[Homebrewer]

8 (the horse I tossed) 6-2-3.

Arggg

[Homebrewer]

OK..well even though I'm talking to myself here today, I'm going to get in this big P4 pool at Belmont.

Big fields and good horses there today, and since I've already made choices in the last 3 legs, I think I'll stretch out with a small investment here.

4-6-10 with 5 (singling Effinex) with 6-9-12-13 (heavy favorite and 3 longshots) with 2-9.

$12.00

Bombs away if I can hit it.

[Homebrewer]

Well what do you do when you get beat by a neck in the first leg of a P4?

You bet a P3, that's what.

Saez waited too long to take the 4 from absolute last in a 13 horse race. and missed by a head. Damn Damn Damn.. 

[Homebrewer]

Effinex redeems himself form his last race with a hard fought win. None of the "experts" were picking him, but the horse has heart. That's what I was betting on.

 Great ride by Smith. Nice when a single comes through.

Now I need some value in the Oaks. Last Waltz would be nice.

[Homebrewer]

3 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Some good looking betting races at Belmont. Subarban 1 1/4 M for older horses, and The Oaks 1 1/4 M Turf for F/M.

Especially like the big field for the Oaks (13) Big fields in a million dollar turf race? 

Nice for my kind of betting (Ex-Tri) With the probable favorite (Catch a Glimpse)  looking at 2-1 at least, and some horses that have a chance at 20-30 to 1..it could be juicy.

Last Waltz at 30-1 ML and Harmonize at 10-1 both look appetizing as does Coolmore at 12-1

I'm going to look at it some more but I,m going to build some bets using 4-6-7-9-12-13

 

.50 tri to cover myself if I can't get a longshot home in the Oaks

4-7-12

4-6-7-9-12-13

4-6-7-9-12-13

$30.00

[Homebrewer]

Catch A Glimpse (8 straight wins) and Tepin? Can't wait..its going to be a great BC.

My $30.00 trifecta paid $182.00 not bad. Keeps my expressbet account healthy enough to play when I want to. Glad I made the cover bet with the favorites, and glad Coolmore (13-1) stayed in there for 3rd.

will pays for my P3 (2 and 9) aren't much 64 and 112 but they will still cover my lost bets with some nice profit..all and all an enjoyable day.

[Adam]

Man I would have had a pretty good day at Belmont yesterday. I put $150 in tickets together that returned $386 but I didn't make any plays. Decided early in the day I was going to be too busy with the fam. 

I loved Jimbo Fallon, Deauville, effinex and AP Indian. All paid very well value wise

[Adam]

Nice job HB!!

 

PS Firing Line sucked a huge wiener in his return

[Homebrewer]

On ‎7‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 6:43 AM, Adam said:

Nice job HB!!

 

PS Firing Line sucked a huge wiener in his return

Tale of S'avall ran a nice race finishing a strong 3rd at decent odds.

Re Firing Line...looks like he had an excuse.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/firing-line-miss-training-time-due-illness/

[Homebrewer]

Something interesting I found while looking around the NYRA website. "The Stewards Corner" Explanations of inquiries, decisions, etc.

https://www.nyra.com/belmont/stewards/

This one must of caused a ruckus..as it split the superfecta pot further. Anyhow, it's an interesting feature I hadn't run across before.

 

Race Decisions - July 1, 2016

Race 8

Following the running of the 8^th race the Placing Judges inadvertently and in error posted the incorrect 4^th place finisher as #3 Paige. Before going official the top 4 finishers were confirmed to the Stewards as being accurate by the Placing Judges. Shortly after the race was made official the Stewards noticed a discrepancy from the Placing Judges order of finish of 1-(4-5)-3, to the race order of finish posted on the infield tote board of 1-(4-5)-2. Immediately the situation was investigated and it was determined by the Stewards that the Placing Judges reported and posted the incorrect 4^th place finisher as #3 Paige when the actual 4^th place finisher was #2 Coming Attraction.

Announcements were made and graphics were posted explaining the situation and the Stewards ordered that the Superfecta payouts were to be paid to those holding tickets on the following combinations; 1-(4-5)-2,  1-(5-4)-2,  1-(4-5)-3,  &  1-(5-4)-3.

[Adam]

Del Mar starts Friday! I'll be posting a lot of picks throughout the meet

[Homebrewer]

1st couple of weeks at Del mar can be SO tough. Really a "horse for course" place, at least it used to be. I'd always look for horses that ran well there in the past, and had horrible recent form. I've probably had my longest odds winners there. Horses that ran like crap everywhere else, but won last time out at Del Mar.

 Some horses just love to run there.

[Homebrewer]

Wow..and we hear trainers complain about shipping between coasts here in the US. Check out what this mare is doing to get to Santa Anita in November for the BC.

 

 

The brilliant mare and her eight-month journey to the Breeders’ Cup

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/brilliant-mare-and-eight-month-journey-breeders-cup/

 

[Homebrewer]

So Adam..I assume you will be heading down there on the 23rd, right?

I expect pictures.

[Adam]

Nah. Aug 12th is the only date I'm guaranteed to be there. 

 

Going to try to work in one more trip. Late August. 

[mrwicked]

I ended up doing Cabo instead of The Derby this year, tickets were available but couldn't get a room at the bomb ass hotels like The Brown.

Gonna try and go next year and book further in advance. Looking at hotels, damn they are expensive! Like $2k a night and you have to stay 3 nights. 

That doesn't even cover the price of the ticket, or the Barnstable Brown party.

Where is the downtown kentucky travelodge when you need it.

[Homebrewer]

Tomorrow at Del Mar..horse for course angle.

Race 4

#2 Nextdoorneighbor is 3-for-7 at Del Mar and won his last two Del Mar races last summer.  Off since September. 5-1

#1 Drover Crazy is another with a strong Del Mar record (2-1-1-0),

Turf races..Keep a close eye on the turf races early in the meet at Del Mar. Santa Anita didn’t card anything on the lawn in July, so you’re going to likely see an influx of overflow fields with talented turf horses that have been ready to race for a few weeks. And as a horseplayer, that’s a great problem to have.

Race 8 (Turf)

#2 Moonlight Drive ..Rare Baffert turfer, Bejerano sticks with her. Big field of 14... wheel her in exacta/tri @ 7/2+ with a few others and still get paid nicely like I did at Belmont last Saturday.

 

 

[Adam]

I have no idea how I'll play this card. 5 of these races are impossible. My advice would be to pick a spot or two and take a shot with some prices.

Del Mar Opening Day

Race 1

Start the meet with a bang! #4 Saddle Soar (15-1) does not look great at first glance, but when you consider the pace of the race (lot of speed, with stretch out sprinters) and his recent improvement, this one has a chance to mow 'em down late a huge price. I'd expect that 15-1 to be 25-1 at post. 

Race 2

#4 Veiled Heat (6-1) comes in with really fast works and a winning pedigree. 0 for 24 trainer should mean a great price in a field of who-knows-what.

Race 3

#5 Glory Bound (6-1) has been facing much tougher than most in here and should get a perfect trip near the lead.

Race 4

#3 My Samurai Warrior (5-2) appears to be too tough for this group. Back class and a misleading record at Del Mar. 6-0-0-1, but a lot of good 4ths and some really fast figs against much tougher.

Race 5

Taking a shot with #9 Stylish In Black (12-1). 2 for 2 at Del Mar. I think routing on the turf is what this one wants to do. Should be another big price.

Race 6

#2 Spread The Joy (5-1) takes the biggest drop in class. Obscure connections should equate to an overlay situation.

Race 7

#4 Missing Groom (8-1) won at Del Mar last summer. He returns to Del Mar for his second race a long layoff. Hollendorfer gets these types ready at an impressive clip. **Best Bet

Race 8

#10 Hollywood Don (6-1) might be the classiest in the field. Impressive on Del Mar turf as a 2YO. Ran in the BC Juv. Turf. They think a lot of this one and I don't think there are any other potential stars in this field.

Race 9

#10 Chief of Staff (5-1) is 2-1-1-0 at Del Mar, both race at the 8F distance. Should sit a good trip near the lead and get first run on the stretch out sprinters. Not sure if he's good enough any longer.

Race 10

Top Pick: #6 Scuderia (3-1) has the figs and connections. Trainer does well both adding blinkers and moving sprint to route. **Most Likely Winner

[Homebrewer]

Adam, I would think Nextdoorneighbor By Fencelineneighbor (4th race) would at least be a hunch play for you.

 

[Adam]

Definitely live!

I'm trying to figure this card out 

[Adam]

My first two picks both ran very well at nice odds. A 3rd and a 2nd.