Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Sent

[gotbeer]

Belmont day

• Race 1 - 2 Cupid 3/5 - I think he's just going to run away with it.  No real other speed.  And no real closers.  He's moving down in class.  Moving down 1/16 in distance when in the stretch he was 1 length out and tired to finish 11 out.  Beyer has him at a prime of +10.9 so I think that's close to a 60% chance.
• Race 2 - 7 Testosterone 20/1 - Moving up in class.  But pretty much everyone is moving up.  He has front running speed, or can close.  I was thinking about 3 wake up Malibu, but I just don't like moving up in distance, class, a 7 month layoff, and changing barns.  Dr Mounty and Connect look ok, but both are coming off maidens.  Connect is also stretching it out.  Will probably put a win bet on the 7 and hope it's a daymaker.
• Race 3 - 5 Catheryn Sophia 6/5 - Looks like the one to beat.  She's probably the second best 3 year old Filly in the nation.  Her early speed will probably help.  But she's just a consistent runner.  Underneath 6 Go Maggie Go and 4 Carina Mia.  Probably an Easy tri 5 with 6, 4

Looking at the card.  This looks like an easy pick 3 to hit.  2 Cupid with all with 5 Catheryn Sophia for $9.  I really think a bomber will hit race 2, so should pay. 

[gotbeer]

Belmont Day Part 2

• Race 4 - 7 Kid Cruz - 3/1 Looks to be the logical choice.  He's just the fastest most consistent of the runners.  He's also 3 starts, 2 wins 1 second on Belmont.  Everyone else is moving up a bit in class, and just don't seem to have the numbers as Kid Cruz has. 
• Race 5 - Wide Open - Looks to be a really good race.  Lots of good runners.  2 StopChargingMaria 7/2 Looks in form.  Good speed figures.  4 Cavorting 9/2 Looks like he likes shorter.  But a 4/3/0/0 record at Belmont you can't discount.  5 Curalina 3/1 Horse has been in the money every race he's run.  6 Forever Unbridled 4/1 Won his last 3.  Really you could make a play for all the horses. Only the 3 Desert Valley looks like he has no shot. 

Pick 5 Looks very hittable, and I may drop it down to a pick 3.  Race 1 2 Cupid with All (9) with 5 Catheryn Sophia with 7 Kid Cruz with All minus Desert Valley (6) $27

[gotbeer]

Belmont Day Part 3

• Race 6 - 1 Green Gratto and 6 Rocket Heat seem to be the speed.  I'm hoping they wear each other out.  I don't see any deep closers in the field.  So I'm going with the guys that should be stalking the pace.  9 Commute 12/1 Switched to Velazquez (19%) last race and stalked and won.  He's moving up from last race, but in the G2 2 races ago, closed to 1 length out from 10 lengths out.  11 Guns Loaded 6/1 is the other stalker I'm looking at.  Didn't do well last race.  But won 3 in a row and 4 out of 5 on the Santa Anita Downhill.  All in a stalky stalky position.  Brisnet has 2 A Lot top pick according to speed +4 above Commute.  So he might have some consideration also.
• Race 7 - 4 Justin Squared 4/1 - Odds is a fair price.  Won all 3 of his races.  Front running speed.  He moves up in class, but you can't leave him off the tickets.  With his speed, I think you have to cross out all other speed.  So looking for closers and stalkers.  1 Sharp Azteca 7/2 Usually a front running horse.  But moving down in distance from 1 mile to 7 furlongs.  He might sit right behind Justin and run by him.  11 Mrazek 6/1 6 races, 2 firsts 4 seconds.  12 I will score 5/1 Won off the pace last race.  I like that his speed figures has been improving last 3 races.  Should be in contention.  13 Star Hill 20/1 Longshot.  Moving down in distance from a mile back to 7 furlongs where he broke his maiden on closing fashion.  8 Awesome Gent 20/1.  According to Brisnet, this horse has a huge speed advantage, +6.  Might be a better Longshot bet.
• Race 8 - Wide Open 1 Strike Charmer 8/1 - Won his last race at Belmont in a G3.  Brisnet figures are moving up the last 3.  At the odds, probably the way I'll go, just not seeing anything else pop out.

Will finish the rest this afternoon.

Edited June 10, 2016 by gotbeer

[Homebrewer]

Some current odds from CBS sports (Does this seem right?)

30-1 on Creator??

Belmont Stakes
Governor Malibu	20-1
Destin	8-1
Cherry Wine	10-1
Suddenbreakingnews	6-1
Stradivari	9-5
Gettysburg	30-1
Seeking the Soul	30-1
Forver d'Oro	12-1
Trojan Nation	20-1
Lani	30-1
Exaggerator	5-1
Brody's Cause	10-1
Creator	30-1

[Homebrewer]

Sharp Azteca...Sharp Azteca...Sharp Azteca...Sharp Azteca...

[Adam]

I will say this. If Donworth wins the Met Mile, I'm going to have a very, very big day. 

[gotbeer]

Belmont Day Part 4

• Race 9 - Wide Open 4 Noble Bird 9/2 - Moving down in distance.  Had a huge race last at Pimlico.  If he does that again, he gone.  7 Stanford 5/1 - Hoping he goes all rapey rapey on the field.  Last 3 has been in contention.  Really only one dud in the last 9 finishing 3 wins 5 seconds.  11 Calculator 10/1 - Will probably be my pick.  Horse screams wants more distance.  Main look is the Sham last year.  1 mile and romped.  Last 4, has been closing each race.  An extra furlong might be the trick.  12 Anchor Down 12/1 - His last 2 1 mile runs have been game.  With Brisnet numbers that that is very competitive. 
• Race 10 - 5 Big Blue Kitten 6/1 - At the odds.  I'd run to the windows.  Hit a clunker last out.  But that was off a 7 month layoff.  Other than that one.  3 firsts, 4 seconds, 1 third.  On the Belmont surface 7 starts, 4 wins, 2 seconds.  Brisnet prime power of a huge +12.5  2 Slumber at 10/1 has the Beyer figures to hang on.  6 Ironicus 4/1 also looks good.  5 wins 4 seconds and a third in the last 10.  10 Flintshire 8/5 - Only comes in first or second.  Might play a super here with Flintshire in first/second and the other three horses.  Huge Brisnet speed of +12. 
• Race 11 - 11 Exaggerator 9/5 Sorry Adam.  Have to stick to him.  According to Weather.com 60% chance of rain for Belmont.  50% chance of rain at 2pm, 35% chance at 3pm, and 30% chance at 4pm.  He's a slop slop baby horse.  Plus Kent has experience at Belmont, so he shouldn't panic.  Brisnet speed +4, and Prime +6.5.  Underneath, going 10 Lani 20/1, 4 Suddenbreakingnews 10/1, 3 Cherry Wine 8/1 in second with 13 Creator 10/1, 5 Stradivari 5/1 + second in third and 2 Destin 6/1 in fourth. 
• Race 12 - 1 Roman Approval 4/1 - drops down in class.  His Brisnet numbers 3 ago puts him in the mix.  4 Make a Decision 15/1 - Has been within 2 lengths last 4 races, with 2 wins and a second.  His numbers fit.  6 Animal Instinct 5/1 - Moves up in class.  But has won the last 2, and a third in the last 3.  8 Fundamental Brisnet speed +2, Prime Power + 7.5, 
• Race 13 - 6 Cerro 5/1 - Off a short layoff.  Won 2 of 3, with a 1/2 length second.  Brisnet numbers moving in the right direction.  2 Amoral 6/1 - Moving up in class.  Won the last 2 with good Brisnet numbers.  10 Watershed has a Brisnet speed figure of +5.

[Adam]

Exaggerator is going to be 3-5 and Kent has fucked up his share of Belmonts. I'm going to use him but only defensively. 

[gotbeer]

I think the early pick 5 is really hittable.

[Adam]

Belmont Plays 

BEST BETS

Race 9 - Win - $10.00 Ticket

3

Race 10 - $5 Trifecta - $5 Ticket

10 / 11 / 5

Race 11 - $5 Exacta - $15.00 Ticket

4 / 5,11,13

MULTIS

Race 6 - Double - $6.00

7,9

1,7,13

Race 7 - Double -  $6.00

1,7

2,9,13

Race 8 - Pick 4 - $6.00

2,7,9,10,12,13

3

10

4,5

Race 9 - Pick 3 - $7.00 Ticket

2,3,4,5,8,11,13

10

4

BELMONT SUPER - $6.40 Ticket

11 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,4,5,13 / 1,2,4,5,10,13

[Adam]

I hit a bunch of bullshit lone star and meadowlands races last night so I was able to get plays in for the whole card.

 

GL today! 

[gotbeer]

I'm sorry Adam but your horse got scratched 

[Homebrewer]

Race 6 (turf sprint)

I'm going 3-8 box

Ready for Rye and Mosler. 

[Homebrewer]

Ready for rye ran well... but Pure Sensation set a new track record.

Trifecta here paid $7800..wow.

Liked that Disco Partner (finished 2nd) as a horse for course angle. Loves Belmont.

Oh well..

[Adam]

Did not have a good day. Once Donworth scratched I had absolutely no plan. Not that it mattered. No one was beating frosted. What a performance. Unreal. Hopefully they don't try and stretch him out anymore and just let him run some one turn races. That was impressive.

On two occasions today once the horses were loading into that gate I thought "I should have included ______. (Celestine and Creator). Oh well. Not much ventured.

Oh well. 

 

del mar and Saratoga in 5.5 weeks!

[gotbeer]

Brutal day for me.  Was so bad, I went short in the big race.  Man, couldn't find a winner today.

[Adam]

I think you're going to lose on these huge days way more often than not. That's why you have to play value so that when you're right you make em pay. I made cuts to a double I had because there were 20 combos and I ended up cutting pure sensation (because he's too inconsistent). Shoulda rolled with it

[Adam]

As good as exaggerator is if you bet $2 to win on him in each TC race you made $1 total. If you bet $2 on Creator in the derby and Belmont you made $30. 

Its not about picking winners. It's about getting value. 

[Homebrewer]

Its not about picking winners. It's about getting value. 

That's the name of the game.

Anyhow, I had a bad feeling about the day after I lost my first bet, and I backed off completely. Some days just look and feel "off" and that was one of them. 

Watched a few, and that's it. Had I been active I would have also had the brutal day you guys had.

Even my Sharp Azteca finished 4th.

[Adam]

Tepin just won in Ascot. What a mare. 

[Homebrewer]

Beat boys again too. What a mare is right.

No Lasix or anything allowed over there. She's a class stand-out all the way.

[Adam]

I won a DRF contest and got to tell my bad beat story on the podcast.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/drf-players-podcast-june-21-2016

 

My segment begins at the 43:30 mark

[gotbeer]

Forgot to post this.  But talk about a dumb shit jockey.  Watch Belmont, Race 10 last Saturday 6-18.  I can't find a youtube video of it, which is surprising, because it was such a colossal fail.  here is the chart, and it doesn't even describe the fail enough.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=BEL&raceDate=06/18/2016&cy=USA&rn=10

Footnotes

STORMIN SARATOGA settled along the rail after an apparent clean getaway, stayed within striking distance, was put to solid urging cutting the corner into the stretch, angled sharply three wide heading for three-sixteenths marker, kicked into her best stride at the beginning of the final furlong, closed in rapdily on MAYBRY'S CONQUEST with the second place finisher in tow one path farther off the rail, was full of run and almost hitched up to the pacesetter when

that one struck the fence and went stumbling down in deep stretch, took full advantage of the opportunity given and held sway, driving. ALYSSA AND A
LISA bumped with MIND THAT DIAMOND as the field was sent on its way, sat parked out in path four for most of the going on the turn, got set down for the drive home, teamed up with the winner in midstretch as they sped towards the leader, continued onward with good energy after the incident past the sixteenth pole to garner the place. IRISH ACTOR three wide at the top of the turn, was driven five to six wide into upper stretch, rallied for the show. U DO THAT within range in two path, came four wide into the stretch, had put together a mild response sufficient to claim the last major check when checked steering away from the prostrate rider and rival in the final stages. RESCUE CAT raced in the two path and from between opponents on the turn, was asked for a response for the drive home, angled into the three path in the vicinity of the sixteent marker, wasn't posing a threat when she become of one of four getting steadied with a few jumps to spare before the wire avoiding the spill. CHAMPAGNE THERAPY took the inside route, was pulling on the bit proceeding down the backstretch, was flattening out when checked and shifted to the outisde in deep stretch to evade the fallen horse and rider. MARY'S IN UTOPIA reserved in the two path for nearly a half, lacked the needed response. MIDASWELLSWING saved ground, was making no headway, when checked and tipped out several paths as a precaution approaching the general area of the spill. GREAT LADY saved ground to no avail. NIGHT NIGHT KITTY pressed the issue from the two path on the turn and gave way. MIND THAT DIAMOND was bumped at the start, underwent a three wide pursuit on the turn, had the rider grab hold after losing her best action approaching the eighth pole, was eased and subsequently vanned off. MAYBRY'S CONQUEST edged away from CHAMPAGNE THERAPY and cut over to the rail down the backstretch, carved out the pace accompanied by NIGHT NIGHT KITTY to the outside, began to edge away from the competition as the half was being completed, got put to a drive, scampered away to her biggest advantage during the next furlong, saw it chopped away readily by the top twosome, came in slightly with about a sixteenth to go, appeared vulnerable coming in a second time in the last seventy yards after one strong right handed shot, struck the rail,stumbling and losing the rider. She was apprehended by the outrider and walked off.

After a Stewards' Inquiry focusing on the incident in deep stretch, the result was declared official.

Edited June 22, 2016 by gotbeer

[Homebrewer]

Sheesh...reminds me of Scott Stevens (Gary's brother) quite a few years ago..I think it was at the Fair, I was at Los Al watching and wagering at the bar there....

He was maybe 15 lengths out in front, all by himself..with a horse that was going to make my night...and he freakin fell off.

Just fell off.

I've seen horses jump shadows and fall,  crash though the rail, stop completely, veer left and right, all kinds of weird shit...but that's the only time I can remember seeing a jock fall of a horse that was running perfectly straight and in a clear lead.