Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

I haven't picked a decent value Belmont winner since Drosselmeyer, and my best Belmont payoff ever was Victory Gallop.

For Victory Gallop I was in Cabo at OTB..I took $100 to bet and walked down from the marina with the intent to put it on his nose, but he has been bet down to 7/2 I think it was, and I was hoping for some better value than that...so after a couple of double bloody marys (it might have been 3 or 4) I threw caution to the wind and split it between exactas and TRIs. I had the straight exacta 40 times and threw $20 at the tri using the only other west coast jockey in the field, which was Chris McCarron.. 

It was an all or nothing bet, but the drinks calmed my nerves... and I had Gary Stevens riding...and Kent D on the favorite, and the confident feeling that Gary was going to turn the tables and time him perfectly. It happens so rarely that I can see a big race unfold in reality, the same way it looked to me on paper...that I can still picture that whole morning..(and remember very little of the rest of the day...hey I was in Cabo) The Tri was just luck (And Chris's horse was 50 or 60 -1)

I walked in with $100 to bet with and maybe $40 to drink on, and walked out an hour and 1/2 later with something in the neighborhood of $3500 \

GIGGLING MARLIN AND SQUID ROE T-SHIRTS FOR EVERYONE BACK HOME!!

 

[gotbeer]

19 years earlier.  They get a faster photo finish than today with all the technology. 

They had better sound too.  Unless it was someone just making up sounds.

[Adam]

So much for no pace. Gettysburg is in. Rabbit for Creator. Still, closers don't usually fair well in this race. 

[Adam]

We're getting a big field:

 

http://www.drf.com/news/dozen-set-face-exaggerator

[gotbeer]

Yeah, I figured that it would be a big field.  Which is good, now we will get paid when we hit those exotics.  Even if it's chalk. 

Also weather doesn't know what it wants to do for the Belmont.  I've seen it as low as 10% chance of rain, up to 80% chance of rain last night.  Currently it sits at 40% chance of rain. 

[Adam]

I'm totally burnt on triple crown season at least in terms of reading all the news, listening to Byk everyday, etc. I'm still doing those things but without the anticipation and excitement.

I'm not overthinking this race. I'll look at the PPs when they come out, assess value and make a decision. Not going to spend hours constructing exotic tickets. 

Wont be eating chalk though I can tell you that.

[gotbeer]

Yeah, I hear you.  I am just going to do win bets for Belmont and Santa anita.  Hope to find a long shot or two to pay for the day. 

[Homebrewer]

I like the fact that Smith is going to ride Suddenbreakingnews.

That plus the addition of a rabbit (especially if someone goes with it) to quicken things up front. 

Who will go with the speed?

Kent D is on the favorite (again)

I'm thinking that betting jockeys might be the way to go here (again)

Breakingnews and Smith are going to be mouthwateringly appetizing..

Gotta love the breeding..

 

 

[Homebrewer]

20 hours ago, gotbeer said:

19 years earlier.  They get a faster photo finish than today with all the technology. 

They had better sound too.  Unless it was someone just making up sounds.

Later.. I watched the full ABC (Wide World of Sports) broadcast of that race. They had Stevens and Kent both miked for the race. The iso replays were great to both watch and listen to. Brought back some memories.

Another thing that stood out to me was Kent's "trophy" wife at the time...man, I thought.. no wonder the guy had a drinking problem!  She looked like a real piece of work.

Also...had Real Quiet held on...Kent would have gotten him taken down for interference in the stretch (confirmed by the stewards after the race)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1HUCR15ED0

 

[Adam]

Yeah I may just play my heart and give SBN another shot. 

[Homebrewer]

He might be the wise-guy horse this go-round. Refreshed after the derby where he was 5th, a neck away from being 3rd? He's had the big race experience, and getting Smith, I just hope he doesn't emerge from under the radar and get bet down where he isn't a value. With the wider turns and longer stretch, I think it sets up between him and Exaggerator for a nice exacta. The bigger field coming aboard should help the payouts.

Position draw tomorrow.

[Adam]

He needs to be 18-1 or better for a W bet. 

[gotbeer]

Race 11

Post: 6:37 PM ET Dirt

• BET NOW!
• + GET PP's

Belmont S. 1 1/2 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,500,000

News and Updates 6Read All

• # PP ODDS Horse (Last 3 Beyers) (sire - dam | dam sire) Jockey Weight Trainer Claim $ Med.

• 1 1 ML 12-1 Governor Malibu J. Rosario 126 Lbs C. Clement L Malibu Moon - Akilina | Langfuhr
• 2 2 ML 6-1 Destin J. Castellano 126 Lbs T. Pletcher L Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer | Siberian Summer
• 3 3 ML 8-1 Cherry Wine C. Lanerie 126 Lbs D. Romans L Paddy O'Prado - C. S. Royce | Unbridled's Song
• 4 4 ML 10-1 Suddenbreakingnews M. Smith 126 Lbs D. Von Hemel L Mineshaft - Uchitel | Afleet Alex
• 5 5 ML 5-1 Stradivari J. Velazquez 126 Lbs T. Pletcher L Medaglia d'Oro - Bending Strings | American Chance
• 6 6 ML 30-1 Gettysburg P. Lopez 126 Lbs S. Asmussen L Pioneerof the Nile - L. A. Devine | Pulpit
• 7 7 ML 30-1 Seeking the Soul F. Geroux 126 Lbs D. Stewart L Perfect Soul*Ire - Seeking the Title | Seeking the Gold
• 8 8 ML 30-1 Forever d'Oro J. Ortiz 126 Lbs D. Stewart L Medaglia d'Oro - Lemons Forever | Lemon Drop Kid
• 9 9 ML 30-1 Trojan Nation A. Gryder 126 Lbs P. Gallagher L Street Cry*Ire - Storm Song | Summer Squall
• 10 10 ML 20-1 Lani Y. Take 126 Lbs M. Matsunaga Tapit - Heavenly Romance*Jpn | Sunday Silence
• 11 11 ML 9-5 Exaggerator K. Desormeaux 126 Lbs J. Desormeaux L Curlin - Dawn Raid | Vindication
• 12 12 ML 20-1 Brody's Cause L. Saez 126 Lbs D. Romans L Giant's Causeway - Sweet Breanna | Sahm
• 13 13 ML 10-1 Creator I. Ortiz, Jr. 126 Lbs S. Asmussen L

Edited June 9, 2016 by gotbeer

[Adam]

Man the Met is such a fantastic betting race.

I will be 5-7 deep in multis but I will be betting win $ on Donworth at 20-1+

[Tank]

race horses have such weird names.

[Adam]

Dutt Bart just won in his debut a month or so ago

[Tank]

See what I mean?

[Homebrewer]

Well, today (after the draw yesterday) is "read analysis" day..and this was the most interesting perspective I've read so far.

2016 Belmont Analysis

---

June 9, 2016 | By Johnny D

It’s a bit difficult to believe that Saturday’s Belmont Stakes will conclude the 2016 Triple Crown series. But, time flies and the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes are in the books. I know that because I have torn mutual tickets and a zero balance wagering account to prove it.

I don’t think I’ve been entirely wrong about this year’s soph class. Instead, I prefer to believe that I’ve been a bit unlucky—zigging when I should have zagged.

For example, I respected Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby, but attempted to beat him at a short price in a large field. I took a swing with 16-1 Creator, both to win and in exotic wagers. Unfortunately, Creator had a rough trip and was nowhere at the finish. Still, if the Derby distance had included one additional stride, 24-1 longshot Suddenbreakingnews would have finished third, instead of fifth, and I would have made a few bucks on saver plays.

In the Preakness I correctly tabbed 17-1 longshot Cherry Wine as a ‘live’ player. Unfortunately, I keyed Nyquist without using Exaggerator on top in exotics. Oops!

You could say I’m due, but the way this Belmont looks on paper, I can’t promise anything. I am willing, however, to share this horseplayer’s thoughts on how things just might turn out.

2016 Belmont Field

1. Governor Malibu (J. Rosario/C. Clement) - 12-1
This New York-bred colt is taking a step up in company in the Belmont Stakes. He’s in good recent form with a nose win but a subsequent disqualification to second in the Federico Tessio at Laurel, and a close, runner-up try in the Grade 2 Peter Pan in his last two races. His running style should have him behind the early leaders, but in front of the many deep closers. Trainer Christophe Clement won the Belmont Stakes with Tonalist, while following a similar pattern as with Governor Malibu. Noteworthy is that this son of Malibu Moon never has taken a backward step, according to DRF Beyer and Thoro-Graph speed figures. Drawing the number one post position also is a plus as more winners of the Belmont Stakes have come from that post than any other. So, while there are many positives in this one’s corner, the question of quality remains. Is he good enough to hang with this elite group of 2016 3-year-ods? Maybe. Keep him around.

2. Destin (J. Castellano/T. Pletcher) - 6/1
Destin, the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby winner, went without a race for eight weeks heading into the Kentucky Derby and then didn’t embarrass himself with a sixth-place finish in that race. Now, returning for trainer Todd Pletcher with a more manageable five-week rest for the Belmont Stakes, some horseplayers expect to see a fitter Destin than the one that ran in Louisville. He’s already shown that he likes the track—breaking his maiden first out at Belmont last October—and as a son of Giant’s Causeway ought to handle the distance. Destin also has shown some early speed and that ought to be useful in here. He’s actually run the fastest Thoro-Graph speed figure of any horse in the race, and his 100 Beyer Speed Figure, also earned in the Tampa Bay Derby, ranks him as one of just three runners in the race to eclipse the triple figure Beyer standard (Exaggerator, three times and Stradivari, once are the others). There are reasons to like this one. Keep him around.

3. Cherry Wine (C. Lanerie/D. Romans) - 8-1
Trainer Dale Romans’ Triple Crown race record is impressive, as he’s hit the board with runners about half the time. Cherry Wine, who closed well to nail Nyquist in the Preakness final strides, actually comes into this a pretty fresh horse because he didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness was a major step forward for this late-running son of Paddy O’Prado, but it should be noted that he has steadily improved for Romans since his first race in August at Saratoga. Cherry Wine may have appreciated the sloppy conditions at Pimlico and also had a perfect, rail-skimming trip under jockey Cory Lanerie that afternoon. Others in here seem to be more talented than this one, but his form is good. Don’t like him on the ‘win’ end of things, but he might be worth superfecta inclusion.

4. Suddenbreakingnews (M. Smith/D. Von Hemel) - 10-1
Yours truly has been a fan of this horse since he roared past Whitmore in the stretch of the Southwest at Oaklawn in February. Replays of his previous races at that time showed a horse with an undisputable talent packaged inside a late-running style. At the time, the question was: Could Suddenbreakingnews could transfer Remington Park form to the big stage. His Southwest win suggested ‘yes,’ and a subsequent second in the Arkansas Derby confirmed that response. Closing with determination in the Kentucky Derby stretch, in one more stride the Mineshaft colt would have been third! Officially, he finished fifth, a nose and a head, from hitting the board. Since then he’s been in training with veteran conditioner Donnie Von Hemel at Churchill—a bit of a negative in that he’s only had a short time at Belmont. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will replace journeyman Luis Quinonez in the saddle Saturday. Deep closers like Suddenbreakingnews don’t always do well in the Belmont Stakes and this year’s edition of the race figures to have little early pace—a strike against this one’s chances—but he’s been first or second in seven out of nine races and there’s little reason (except possibly pace and style) to keep this one off the lower rungs of exotic tickets.

5. Stradivari (J. Velazquez/T. Pletcher) - 5-1
Talk about riding the fast track to success…Stradivari will be making just his fifth career start in the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher has done well in this race, so he knows what kind of horse it takes to get the job done in here. This son of Medaglia d’Oro ran like a ‘short’ horse first out in a seven-furlong, 2-year-old maiden race at Aqueduct in November. He then was shipped to Gulfstream where he decimated foes in an ‘off the turf’ maiden test. Out of racing until April 2016, Stradivari returned during Keeneland to obliterate first-level allowance foes. That impressive win led to a start in the Preakness and a subsequent respectable fourth-place finish behind Exaggerator, Cherry Wine and Derby winner Nyquist. One of few Belmont entrants with any early foot, expect Stradivari to be close to the early Belmont pace. Is he talented and experienced enough to handle a big field at a mile and one-half over ‘Big Sandy?’ It’s hard to feel strongly either way, but there are enough positives to keep him around.

6. Gettysburg (P. Lopez/S. Asmussen) - 30-1
This colt was a late addition to the previously pace-less Belmont lineup. He figures as the speed of the race and could help set things up for a closer to win. Gettysburg’s owners WinStar Farm LLC, who also pay the bills for Creator, hope he is the prime beneficiary of a fast pace. Additionally, WinStar probably wouldn’t mind terribly if Gettysburg’s front-running tactics sets things up for Exaggerator, since they eventually will stand him at stud and a Belmont victory wouldn’t damage his reputation. Despite denials by his connections, Gettysburg now can be spelled R-A-B-B-I-T. In order to start Gettysburg in the Belmont and keep trainer Todd Pletcher (who has two other pace factors already in the race) out of hot water with the owners of those other horses, WinStar moved Gettyburg to trainer Steve Asmussen’s care. What all of this could mean is that WinStar really think that Creator is ‘live’ in the Belmont Stakes and want to give him every chance to win by adding pace to the race. As for Gettysburg, he probably isn’t good enough to be around at the finish of this race.

7. Seeking the Soul (F. Geroux/D. Stewart) - 30-1
He broke his maiden last out going a mile at Churchill Downs. This is a huge jump up in class. We’ll pass on him in here.

8. Forever d’Oro (J. Ortiz/D. Stewart) - 30-1
Like stablemate Seeking the Soul, Forever d’Oro broke his maiden last out. Unlike ‘Soul, d’Oro did it at Belmont Park at a mile and one-sixteenth. Nevertheless, there are far too many other interesting options than this one. We’ll pass on him.

9. Trojan Nation (A. Gryder/P. Gallagher) - 30-1
There’s little in this maiden’s past performances to suggest that he might have a chance in here.

10. Lani (Y. Take/M. Matsunaga) - 20-1
Lani’s a world traveler who’s come full circle and then some. He was foaled in Kentucky, raced in Japan, saluted in Dubai, gawked at in a return to Kentucky and finally muddy mid-pack in Baltimore. This colt appears to be made of iron, and trains like there’s no bottom to him. He’s also bred to run all day—and his morning exercise regimes have approached that limit. Unlike some of his foes, in the mile and one-half Belmont he won’t experience fatigue! The question is: How fast is Lani? Speed figure analysis suggests that he’s improved over the last few races and that he’s nearly fast enough to have a say in the Bemont outcome…at least in the exotic area. He should be a big enough price to toss in on the underside of superfecta tickets, but we’d be hard pressed to expect much more than that. His running style will find him far back early along with several others in here. Expect him to pick up some pieces late because his strong suit is longevity. We just don’t think he’ll be able to catch everyone.

11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux) - 9/5
Favored in the 2016 Belmont Stakes, Exaggerator won the Preakness over a sloppy track under a heady, rail-skimming ride by Hall-of-Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux. The duo, a closing second in the Kentucky Derby to favored Nyquist, gained revenge on that one by taking advantage of squishy Baltimore footing and a contentious early pace. Exaggerator also won the Santa Anita Derby under similar conditions—an ‘off’ track and a favorable hot pace. The forecast for Elmont, NY Saturday is for clear skies and considerably slower early fractions. While trainer Keith Desormeaux and brother Kent deserve mounds of respect for the job they’ve done with Exaggerator—he’s improved nearly every race since his first start--this writer wonders if a mile and one-half is the colt’s optimum distance. And, can the Desormeaux brothers coax one more big race out of Exaggerator on the Triple Crown trail?

Exaggerator’s flat finish over a fast track in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita still is bothersome, even though the colt displayed no obvious distance issues in the mile and one-quarter Kentucky Derby or mile and three-sixteenths Preakness Stakes. However, closer examination of the final stages of those races suggests a possible chink in the armor of the Belmont favorite. About mid-stretch at Churchill it appeared that Exaggerator might have enough energy to get to Nyquist. He did not. In the Preakness stretch, when an apparently vanquished Nyquist angled out off the rail, it appeared for one fleeting moment that he just might re-rally and catch Exaggerator. Are these figments of this writer’s imagination, or was Exaggerator feeling the heat of extended distances? And what about Exaggerator ‘bearing out’ into the stretch of his most recent Belmont workout? Was that merely jockey Kent Desormeaux allowing the colt to drift, or does is signify that something’s not right?

Everything on paper suggests that Exaggerator is the one to beat in this race. He will be a short price. If there’s any question about a horse’s effectiveness going a distance, the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes at ‘Big Sandy’ will definitively end the discussion—in the affirmative or negative. I’m going to act on the assumption that Exaggerator can win the Belmont Stakes, but at a short price I’m going to leave the door open for an upset.

12. Brody’s Cause (L. Saez/D. Romans) - 20-1
In addition to Cherry Wine, Trainer Dale Romans will saddle Brody’s Cause in the Belmont Stakes. Both horses are late-running types in a race seemingly void of early speed. Therefore, the Romans’ duo will need to swim upstream to get the job done. Brody’s Cause is the more accomplished of the duo, with twice as much money in the bank as Cherry Wine--$1.1 million to $500k. He’s run faster, more often than his barn mate, too. However, Cherry Wine’s Preakness is faster than anything Brody’s been able to produce. A similar fate as an exotic round out seems destined for both Romans horses in the Belmont.

13. Creator (I. Ortiz Jr./S. Asmussen) - 10-1
This grey/roan son of Tapit has been the equivalent of my 2016 Triple Crown Moby Dick! I leveled a huge harpoon (in the form of a major 16.40-to-1 win wager) at the great white whale in the Kentucky Derby, but the projectile missed. I also used him extensively in exotic wagers, too, and they came up all wet. True, Creator experienced significant traffic trouble in the Kentucky Derby when jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. moved him from effortlessly following Exaggerator along the rail outward into a mid-track Central Park-style mugging. So, what’s a horseplayer to do about that troubled trip? Cry, that’s what! Before the incident, Creator was moving as well or better than Exaggerator, who wound up second, and it’s reasonable to assume that trouble-free the former would have finished at least as well as the latter. Also, earlier this year, in Arkansas, Creator twice defeated Suddenbreakingnews, who was one stride away from finishing third in the Kentucky Derby. Isn’t it therefore reasonable to assume that minus trouble Creator would have finished in the Kentucky Derby trifecta? Or, am I all wet? In other words, is this merely a case of a jilted horseplayer stubbornly chasing bad money with good? Playing the horse back because it owes him money from the last time? That usually means that after the next race it owes him even more.

As kids these days say, ‘Whatever!’ At nearly the last moment, the owners of Creator added Gettysburg to the Belmont lineup. They say the new addition is not a ‘rabbit’ entered to establish an honest pace. If you buy that one I’ve got some Florida swampland you might be interested in. Oh, by the way, Irad Ortiz, Jr., one of the top jocks in New York, will replace Santana in the irons.

Can you say, ‘Thar she blows?’

Bottom Line:

The One to Beat
11-Exaggerator

The Great White Whale (see above)
13-Creator

Gotta Use Pletcher & Clement
2-Destin, 5-Stradivari, 1-Governor Malibu

For Price Shoppers Only
10-Lani, 4-Suddenbreakingnews, 3-Cherry Wine

Suggested Play: Three different 10-Cent Superfectas Keying 13- Creator in the First, Second and Third positions. Each wager costs $16.80 and placing all three wagers will cost a total of $50.40.

10-Cent Superfecta ($16.80)
First - 13
Second - 1, 2, 5, 11
Third - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
Fourth - 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 10, 11, 12

10-Cent Superfecta ($16.80)
First - 1, 2, 5, 11
Second - 13
Third - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
Fourth - 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 10, 11, 12

10-Cent Superfecta ($16.80)
First – 1, 2, 5, 11
Second – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
Third – 13
Fourth - 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 10, 11, 12

Race On!

Email Johnny D

[Homebrewer]

This horse kinda scares me. I doubt that I will invest anything other than including him in any dime supers, but the general consensus among analysts seems to go something like this..

   

Value Plays: LANI actually ran well in the Preakness when he finished fifth.

He was 27-lengths behind early, and closed ground well to lose by only five

lengths. After the finish the son of Tapit galloped out strongly.

 

 

The horse had traveled extensively...even to Dubai..and his breeding (and the observers) says he can run all day.

Just the kind of horse to jump up and finally run a huge race??

Like I say...scares me.

 

Pedigree |  Siblings |  Progeny

 

Tapit	Pulpit	A. P. Indy
		Preach
	Tap Your Heels	Unbridled
		Ruby Slippers
Heavenly Romance	Sunday Silence	Halo
		Wishing Well
	First Act	Sadler's Wells
		Arkadina

 

[Adam]

If the Belmont were an allowance race, I'd pass. I don't really like betting 12F races. They're crapshoots. That said, betting Exaggerator is why people lose at the races. I'm no winning player. There are very few, but I do know that taking a short price on a horse in his 3rd race in five weeks, running 12F for the first time against a pace scenario that is contrary to the ones he excelled against in his three best races is beyond stupid from a value standpoint. Can he win? Of course, but it would be wise to try and beat him. 

 

I like the strategy laid out above. I think the most likely winner is actually Stradivari, who figures to be much closer to the pace than Exaggerator and a horse who can improve a lot from his last start. 

Using the $0.10 Super strategy I'd key Stradivari in 1st and 2nd only.

5 / 1,2,4,11 / 1,2,4,11,13 / ALL

1,2,4,11 / 5 / 1,2,4,11,13 / ALL

[Homebrewer]

That's why I like this leg...everyone will bet Exaggerator, which opens it up for horseplayers to make money.

It's like Christmas for us (if you can get the right horse/jockey.. and a little racing luck)

It's why I lean heavily towards jockeys in this race. 

Johnny Velasquez and Irad Ortiz are based at Belmont...

and Mike Smith is well, Mike Smith.

[Adam]

I did my first pass through the Belmont card for Saturday. Easily the best group of races so far this year. This is a Breeder's Cup quality group of races.

Here are my race by race thoughts and picks to this point. I'm working with a relatively small budget for Saturday so I'm not likely to play much of the first half of races.

Race 1 - Looks like a two horse race between Cupid and Rally Cry. Short field. Pass. I'd use both horses though in multis. Cupid will be super short.

Race 2 - #3 Wake Up In Malibu (10-1) presents some value in here. He's in good form and his speed figs fit perfectly. He may be a little class disadvantaged but its an allowance race and he's got a nice shot in here. #6 Connect (3-1) is probably the most likely winner. 

Race 3 - Cathryn Sophia (6-5) is a single to me. A lot of people like Carina Mia (4-1) but I can't see Cathryn Sophia letting her foe get too far away. 

Race 4 - The first 12 Furlong race of the day looks tough. #3 Neck and Neck (15-1) has a win at the distance, which I love at these funky distances. In addition I'd use the favorites based on figs and class. #4 Shaman Ghost (4-1) and #7 Kid Cruz (3-1) look tough. 

Race 5 - Man, I'd probably use everyone in this race. My top pick is #2 Stopchargingmaria (7-2) who beats these with her best race. 

Race 6 - Turf Sprints are the absolute toughest races to handicap. Add in a field like this both in quality and quantity and my only rule is to take a price. #7 Green Mask (8-1) will likely get bet some, but I'd probably keep him on top at 6-1. He finished 3rd in the BC Turf Sprint at Keeneland and cuts back in distance, which Iove in races like this. I'm absolutely against Rocket Heat at 6F. 

Race 7- #1 Sharp Azteca (7-2) will be tough if he runs back to his Pat Day Mile. He was AWESOME! But, Justin Squared (4-1) will present a pace challenge for him. I will look for a horse to come from off the pace in what figures to be really fast early fractions. #7 Counterforce (15-1) should like the extra furlong and may pass everyone late. #3 Big Deep (6-1) is up in class but is a fast horse who could get first jump on the leaders. 

Race 8 - I'm having a hard time separating my first three choices in here. #2 Recepta (6-1) is a classy runner who might fire her best race third off the layoff. #12 Rhaina De Batera (5-1) finished 2nd to Tepin at Churchill on Derby Day. That's like a win! I'll use these two and throw in the CA runner #10 Faufiler (5-1). 

Race 9 (The Met Mile) - I'm really excited for what looks like the best race on the card. #3 Donworth (20-1) is my best value bet of the day. He ran awesome in the San Antonio, losing to Hoppertunity and Imperative, posting a career high speed fig. In his last two he had all kinds of trouble. In the Big Cap he was so eager to run and Mario had to fight him the whole way around the track before finally making a move right into traffic and having to check. His last was around three turns at Charlestown and he was 5-wide the whole way. A clean trip I feel like he's going to run a monster race. O'Neill might get a win on Belmont day afterall. I'll also use the psychotic #4 Noble Bird (9-2), #11 Calculator (10-1) and #13 Marking (8-1). I'm against all the Pletchers in here. #Donworthbitches! #Lightupthetote

Race 10 (The Manhattan) - As great a field as this is #10 Flintshire (8-5) is in a different league. If he handles the layoff and the Belmont Turf he should win for fun. In a deep ticket, I'd use the other 3 Chad Brown horses - Slumber, Wake Forest and Big Blue Kitten as well as Divisidero, who is may not like 10F. 

Race 11 (The Belmont Stakes) - The biggest race on the card is probably my least favorite race on the card from a betting standpoint. I'm against #11 Exaggerator (9-5), but will use him. #5 Stradivari (5-1) I prefer over all others, but will he get the distance? #2 Destin is another Pletcher who just hasn't raced enough to get a good feel. #4 Suddenbreakingnews (10-1) and #13 Creator (10-1) are interesting but will they be close enough? #1 Governor Malibu (12-1) ran a great Peter Pan race, finishing 2nd. As of now, I'm leaning toward using Stradivari and Suddenbreakingnews equally while including the others on B tickets.

[gotbeer]

Nice Adam.  Did my highlighting.  Will do picks tomorrow. 

[gotbeer]

@Adam did you get the Friday form?   The Belmont Gold/Derby double specifically.

[Tank]

home brewer, if i read all of that, can i get book report credit?