Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

Does anyone know the max number of runners the Belmont can have?  With Nyquist out, this might be a full field, because I think anyone has a shot.  I'm hoping close to a max field so that there will be some juicy LS values.

[Tank]

2 hours ago, Adam said:

My heart wants to go with Suddenbreakingnews but its usually the one-paced types that win the Belmont. Way too premature but I'll be interested to see what Destin looks like coming in. 

i wonder if someone could make money on a race like the belmont where they put $10 on every single horse in the field.

[Homebrewer]

53 minutes ago, Tank said:

i wonder if someone could make money on a race like the belmont where they put $10 on every single horse in the field.

In a 10 horse race that looks wide open, sure you can..but it isn't good money management strategy. And a favorite would come in, you just know that.

Better to set a line somewhere...say 10 or 15 to 1, and just bet those horses.

2 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Does anyone know the max number of runners the Belmont can have?  With Nyquist out, this might be a full field, because I think anyone has a shot.  I'm hoping close to a max field so that there will be some juicy LS values.

There has never been a walkover in the Belmont, but five times - in 1887, 1888, 1892, 1910 and in Man O' War's year, 1920 - there were only two starters.

The largest field ever to compete in the Belmont was 15 in 1983 when Caveat defeated Slew O' Gold by 3 1/2 lengths. The second largest field was 14 in 1875 when Calvin beat Aristides, a stablemate who that year won the inaugural edition of the Kentucky Derby.

In 1996, a field of 14 went to the post with Editor's Note the winner.

[gotbeer]

If I remember right, 11 or 13 went against Chrome, which resulted in the famous rant by the owner after the race. 

1 hour ago, Tank said:

i wonder if someone could make money on a race like the belmont where they put $10 on every single horse in the field.

As for betting a race wide open.  I've actually made more money going favorite (Or the horse I knew would win) with all in an exacta.  In the case of the Preakness, a strategy that I did not do (stupid me), if you went Exaggerator with all in the exacta in a 11 horse field, it would have cost you $10.  Payout for a $1 exacta was $44.  To even go further, you could have played the trifecta Exaggerator with all with Nyquist and of course Exaggerator with Nyquist with all. At $0.50 that bet would also have been $10 going both ways.  That paid $36.55. 

Of course the risk you run with that strategy is if the second or third favorite comes in second.  I've lost money using that strategy, but I think overall I am still ahead. 

For instance again.  Lady Shipman in the 8th race at Pimlico on Preakness weekend.  She was a sure thing.  12 horse field, so $11 on the Exacta paid $11.80.  This was with the 4th favorite coming in second place. 

In the end, it's all a gamble. 

[Tank]

thanks for the explanations, gentlemen. my thinking was this: if there are 10 horses in the race and i bet $10 on each horse to win, i'm sure to lose $90. but depending on which horse wins and the odds on it to win, i stand a chance of winning much more than $90. 

am i correct? i think the last time i went to the track was at hollywood park around 1966 or 67. i know as little about gambling on a horse as any single human could possible know.

[gotbeer]

30 minutes ago, Tank said:

thanks for the explanations, gentlemen. my thinking was this: if there are 10 horses in the race and i bet $10 on each horse to win, i'm sure to lose $90. but depending on which horse wins and the odds on it to win, i stand a chance of winning much more than $90. 

am i correct? i think the last time i went to the track was at hollywood park around 1966 or 67. i know as little about gambling on a horse as any single human could possible know.

You would be correct.  And say a 10 horse field.  IMO, the chances are better if the favorite is a huge favorite.  I have done bets like that, mainly at Golden Gate and Los Alamitos.  Where the favorite is 1/9 in a 7 or so horse field.  And every other horse is double digits.  If I think it's a vulnerable favorite, I'll bet the wins on every horse but the favorite.  And there are times when a horse is a 1/9 favorite, or even a 1/1 favorite, and I have no idea what everyone else knows.  Those are the horses I'll bet against.

 

[Adam]

You can't make money betting favorites in the long run, Tank. In your example, it would be prudent to omit horses that = losses. If there are ten horses in a race and the odds are:

2-1, 7-2, 4-1, 5-1, 9-1, 12-1, 16-1, 18-1, 24-1 and 42-1, you would want to toss at least the top three, maybe 4 choices, because you're guaranteed to lose money if one of them comes in. 

 

[Tank]

adam, let's go to santa anita sometime. i'd be curious to experience it with someone who knows what he's doing. GB, you can come along, too.

[Adam]

But he has to buy us lunch 

[gotbeer]

5 hours ago, Adam said:

But he has to buy us lunch 

 

There is an In N Out close by.  They let you bring in food.  @nate knows where it's at.  He can meet us there.

[nate]

The SA INO gets super busy lunch time, better to go after 1:30 PM or you will be waiting a long time... dicks

[Adam]

Tank I'd love to go to SA with you. Challenge is, I can't make it up there more than once or twice a year. Buy some tickets for The Breeders Cup. You'll be hooked!

[gotbeer]

Breeders Cup is too expensive and crowded, especially when hosted at Santa Anita.  Better to go on a big stakes day.  Belmont day would be a good one to go to, since you have the Belmont races, and usually some good stakes races.  Personally, for me, the best days at Santa Anita are SA Derby, Big Cap, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.  Maybe opening weekend.  Tokyo City Cup day is also fun, because they have a lot of things to do, and different events.  Gold Cup and Sunshine Millions day are sometimes good.  But lately not as many stakes races. 

[gotbeer]

Oh, and Del Mar is consistently a better experience weekend in and weekend out than Santa Anita.  I love Santa Anita and all.  But you can't beat the Del Mar atmosphere and eye candy.  I just wish they had a Del Mar Express train from Union Station to there that wasn't so expensive.  California Surfliner is like $60 each way.  And when you factor in drinks are way too expensive, it ends up being a way too over budget day.

[Homebrewer]

20 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Oh, and Del Mar is consistently a better experience weekend in and weekend out than Santa Anita.  I love Santa Anita and all.  But you can't beat the Del Mar atmosphere and eye candy.  I just wish they had a Del Mar Express train from Union Station to there that wasn't so expensive.  California Surfliner is like $60 each way.  And when you factor in drinks are way too expensive, it ends up being a way too over budget day.

There is a cheaper train...Metrolink.

You take Metrolink from Union Station to Oceanside...then switch to the San Diego version of metrolink (Coaster) there , and go to Solana Beach...where there is a shuttle to the track.

Round trip on the weekends (day pass) for the metrolink part is $10 and the Coaster day pass is 12.00.

You might find it cheaper to take it by route cheaper in SD county...just check out their websites..

On metrolink it's BYOB.. you can bring a cooler of beer, or a bottle of wine, or even mixed drinks.

even this way is $22 round trip from Union Station to Delmar..you cant drive and park yourself for that!

 

[Adam]

47 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Breeders Cup is too expensive and crowded, especially when hosted at Santa Anita.  Better to go on a big stakes day.  Belmont day would be a good one to go to, since you have the Belmont races, and usually some good stakes races.  Personally, for me, the best days at Santa Anita are SA Derby, Big Cap, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.  Maybe opening weekend.  Tokyo City Cup day is also fun, because they have a lot of things to do, and different events.  Gold Cup and Sunshine Millions day are sometimes good.  But lately not as many stakes races. 

 

I think Breeders Cup is an awesome value. $50 a ticket for the Super Bowl of Thoroughbred Racing is a steal IMO. Thank God its a niche sport. 

 

It is definitely crowded. The good thing with the BC is that scratches are scarce and the odds are predictable. You can put in 75% of your plays before the big races begin and avoid the long lines between races. My bro and I alternate our in race plays. 

Edited May 25, 2016 by Adam

[Adam]

I wonder that the tickets are going to cost in 2017 when the BC is at Del Mar? I might buy extras and sell them. 

[Tank]

10 hours ago, Adam said:

But he has to buy us lunch 

if you show up, i'll buy.

[Tank]

4 hours ago, Adam said:

Tank I'd love to go to SA with you. Challenge is, I can't make it up there more than once or twice a year. Buy some tickets for The Breeders Cup. You'll be hooked!

i think i'd enjoy going to a BC. the problem with that is it's always on a saturday and since that's my day of worship, i choose not to go. i usually have men's chorus rehearsal that day, as well.

i'd be willing to drive down to del mar some random weekday this summer. let's work this out. GB, you wanna join us?

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

i think i'd enjoy going to a BC. the problem with that is it's always on a saturday and since that's my day of worship, i choose not to go. i usually have men's chorus rehearsal that day, as well.

i'd be willing to drive down to del mar some random weekday this summer. let's work this out. GB, you wanna join us?

I thought Sunday was your day of worship?  What kind of cult do you belong to? 

And weekdays aren't as fun as Saturdays.  That's really the day to go.  Although holidays (like all those weird holidays you government folk get like arbor day) is a good day to kick back at the track, since it's usually dollar drinks and hot dogs.  Oh wait......dollar drinks and full price food for you.  Hmm looking at the calendar, only holidays left are this monday and 4th of july. 

[Homebrewer]

@Tank

I'll only give you one piece of advice...one that was given to me long ago and it's held true.

It's more about eliminating losers, than it is picking winners.

[Homebrewer]

Del Mar is great during the week, too.

 

[Adam]

Tank, I do a couple trips to Del Mar each year. Once on a Friday in a suite with a professional network my boss and I are involved in. For my personal trip this year, I want to do a weekday so I'll hit you up to coordinate that with you. 

[Tank]

that's going to be a problem, brewer. as it turns out, i'm a lifelong angels fan. i know very little about eliminating losers.

[Tank]

45 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

I thought Sunday was your day of worship?  What kind of cult do you belong to? 

nope, i worship on saturday (seventh day adventist). doing it right since 1844.