Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Uncle Lino was 3rd in a muddy SA Derby, albeit beaten 10 lengths

[Homebrewer]

Preakness Post Draw

When: 5 p.m., Wednesday

TV: Not televised

How to watch: Streaming via DRF.com

[Homebrewer]

http://livestream.com/MarylandRacing/events/4147442

 

this one works..

[Homebrewer]

http://livestream.com/MarylandRacing/events/4147442

 

Drawing starts at 2:07.00 on the video...ML odds follow the draw

Edited May 18, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

141st Preakness Stakes Post Draw	Odds
1. Cherry Wine	20-1
2. Uncle Lino	20-1
3. Nyquist	3-5
4. Awesome Speed	30-1
5. Exaggerator	3-1
6. Lani	30-1
7. Collected	10-1
8. Laoban	30-1
9. Abiding Star	30-1
10. Fellowship	30-1
11. Stardivari	8-1

[Adam]

Here are my plays for Friday:

R6 $0.20 Pick 6 - $5.40 

4

1,2,5

1,2,7

5

1,5,14

5

 

 

R7 $1 Pick 3 - $4.00

 

1

1,2,5,7

5

 

R11 $0.50 Pick 4 - $20.00               

 

5

2,5,8,11

ALL

11

 

$0.50 Trifectas - $16.00

 

Race	6	7	11	12
1st	4	1,2	5	8
2nd	3,10	1,2	2,3	1,2,5,11
3rd	3,6,10,13	3,5	2,3,6,9,13,14	1,2,5,11

 

 

[gotbeer]

Uncle Lino at 20-1, considering the speed figures he put up in his last race at Santa Anita.  That might not be a bad win bet.  I haven't closely looked at the race yet.  But putting a win bet on him as a cover might not be a bad idea.

[Adam]

Going to keep it pretty simple for The Preakness

$0.50 Trifecta -$6.00

3,5

1,3,5

1,2,3,5,10

$0.10 Super Box - $6.00

1,2,3,5,6

$0.10 Super - $4.00

3

1,5

1,2,5,6,7

1,2,5,6,7,10,11

Edited May 18, 2016 by Adam

[gotbeer]

LOL.  This is a funny article.

Meet Lani, the horse that threatens to make the Preakness weird

[gotbeer]

Losing tickets for the Preakness.

Exacta 3,5 with 3, 5, 9 $4

Trifecta 3, 5 with 3, 5, 9 with 3, 5, 9, 2, 6 ($0.50?) $6

Superfecta 3, 5 with 3, 5, 9 with 3, 5, 9, 2, 6 with 3, 5, 9, 2, 6, 7, 11 ($0.10) $4.80

Pent (super high 5 lottery ticket) $12

• 3,5 with 3, 5 with 9 with 2,6 with 2,6
• 3,5 with 9 with 3,5 with 2,6 with 2,6
• 3,5 with 3,5 with 2,6 with 9 with 2,6

[gotbeer]

Also, race 8.  #12 Lady Shipman looks like a single.

[Adam]

After further pondering... I'm just going to key Nyquist on top. It isn't like Exaggerator is proving much value if he somehow gets up. Plus Derby runner ups fair very badly in the Preakness. Much more likely Exaggerator is out of the exacta than on top of it. Cherry Wine is my key horse. He freaked in the mud too and comes in super fresh. Dale Romans can have a really nice weekend as he's got some good runners going. 

Tomorrow's card is so good, and the weather is such a cluster F on Saturday ( can't count on the turf races staying one) I'm only playing the Preakness.

Exacta - 3 / 1

Trifecta - 3 / ALL / 1

Super -  3 /1,5 / 1,5 / 2,6,7,10

 

[Homebrewer]

I agree that Exaggerator will probably not be a value play on the win. Have to wait on the tote to be sure, but he might even come down from 3-1 if it's wet. Really don't know what I'm gonna do..

[Adam]

3-1 in the win pool, maybe lower in terms of exactas and tris because most people box

[Homebrewer]

It depends on how people bet, for sure. East Coasters bet differently than us Lefties.

Look at PPs for me, and see if Nyquist ever ran behind in the slop..some horses can win just fine in the mud, as long as they are on the lead most of the way and aren't getting pelted with it. Many horses don't take to getting slapped with it for 6 furlongs...and if they go wide to avoid it, they cover a lot more ground to get home.

Might favor your #1 if he can get out clean and save all the ground.

 

[gotbeer]

I think of all the TVG/HRTV announcers.  I like the Handicapping of Matt Caruthers and Kurt Hoover the most.  They seem to find the gems.

Matt was all over the 2 in the 3rd race over the 1/9 favorite 8.  And the 2 romped. 

[Homebrewer]

Matt is always all over the value plays.

He comes from a horse playing background and he almost never will take anything short. 

Speaking of value..I'm leaning towards both the 1 and the 8 in the next one at Pim.. (race 5)

Maybe 10 W on both of them...and a 5 ex with the favorite (9) top and bottom.

[Homebrewer]

$250,000 G2 DIXIE STAKES

---

Saturday, May 21, 2016

By Jeremy Plonk, Horse Player NOW

The Lead:
We continue our tour of the turf division in recent weeks, handicapping the G2 Dixie from Pimlico on the heels of the G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill and G2 Man o' War at Belmont Park. The Dixie hits middle-distance runners in the crosshairs at 1-1/16 miles, a trip reduction now in its third year after a long history at 9 furlongs. This will be the lead-in race to the Preakness and broadcast live nationally on NBC.

Field Depth:
ZA APPROVAL has made nearly $1.4 million and G1 winner GRAND ARCH has bagged $1.8 million after a 7-figure season in 2015 alone. RING WEEKEND is a G1 winner as well and has bagged $1 million-plus. The top-end class of this race is very legitimate and it won't be won easily on a class rise.

Pace:
LONG ON VALUE has inside speed, while the widest-drawn runners FORCE THE PASS, TAKE THE STAND and CAGE FIGHTER also want to be forwardly placed. That recipe often will lead to a quick pace as riders hustle to keep or secure position. I would have no problem taking a closer in this field.

Our Eyes:
We're focusing our gaze on the weather map to be honest. Rainy conditions are forecasted for Saturday and it looks inevitable that we will be dealing with, at best, a softish turf course, and, at worst, an off-the-turf situation. Even in poor conditions, the Dixie would figure to have every chance to stay on the grass if horse safety is not compromised in any fashion.

GRAND ARCH hasn't run since the Breeders' Cup Mile when third, but he was awfully sharp in 2015 in winning the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Trainer Brian Lynch had been aiming him for a Churchill or Keeneland return, but wound up here in Plan B or C. That's not a total toss-out scenario to me, but it does make me want to demand a bit of value. Fair odds strictly on form here are around 3-1, but with the form cycle questions, I would put that to around 9-2 or 5-1. It's not going to get that high, so GRAND ARCH becomes a value stand-against to me, even though I absolutely recognize his talent and chance to win this race.

On soft turf, TAKEOVER TARGET has been dynamite for Chad Brown with 2 wins and a second in 3 bids. He's progressively gotten better in each start this year while taking on elder turfers. Notice his form last year vs. straight 3YOs, something to consider when balancing the form of FORCE THE PASS as well. The recent races for TAKEOVER TARGET and the likely course conditions make him the stronger 4YO in this scenario. Plus, I like that Irad Ortiz, Jr. doesn't have a Preakness mount, yet still is coming to ride key undercard stakes.

ZA APPROVAL and CONQUEST TYPHOON both go for trainer Mark Casse and the former always has struck me the more talented of this duo. Now age 8, ZA APPROVAL may not be quite as dynamic as he once was, and sometimes the older you get, the harder it is to come back and fire fresh off the layoff without some prepping. It's not a shock if Casse wins this race with either, but it won't be with my backing.

CAGE FIGHTER and LONG ON VALUE finished second and fourth, respectively, in this race last year and that was against a sterling performance by Ironicus. But both are flanked in the extreme inside and outside post positions and their recent form leaves some doubt to their trajectory heading into the return bout.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: GRAND ARCH is 19-for-23 in the trifecta lifetime and rarely fails to fire.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: PRINCE GAGARIN has foreign experience on soft turf and his US debut at Keeneland, while against much weaker, was solid. Under better turf conditions, I give him little chance to beat the heavyweights here, but in a bog, don't sleep on his chances for an underneath share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 win and place TAKEOVER TARGET.

[Homebrewer]

Value Plays:The off track and hot pace could benefit CHERRY WINE, and he's the only price horse I have any feel for in the Preakness. His lone effort on a wet track was very impressive and his jockey, Corey Lanerie, is one of the best in the business at saving ground with closers and bringing them up the rail. Look for him to get a good, ground-saving trip Saturday. None of the others inspires me. Value in this race will have to come in the exotics and identifying the horses that can jump up and grab a minor share of the prize.

Wagering Strategies ($100)
* $30 Win: EXAGGERATOR ($30)
* $12 Exactas: EXAGGERATOR with NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE ($24)
* $5 Exactas: NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE with EXAGGERATOR ($10)
* $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: EXAGERRATOR with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE with ALL ($18)
* $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: EXAGGERATOR with ALL with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE ($18)

[gotbeer]

6 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Value Plays:The off track and hot pace could benefit CHERRY WINE, and he's the only price horse I have any feel for in the Preakness. His lone effort on a wet track was very impressive and his jockey, Corey Lanerie, is one of the best in the business at saving ground with closers and bringing them up the rail. Look for him to get a good, ground-saving trip Saturday. None of the others inspires me. Value in this race will have to come in the exotics and identifying the horses that can jump up and grab a minor share of the prize.

Wagering Strategies ($100)
* $30 Win: EXAGGERATOR ($30)
* $12 Exactas: EXAGGERATOR with NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE ($24)
* $5 Exactas: NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE with EXAGGERATOR ($10)
* $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: EXAGERRATOR with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE with ALL ($18)
* $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: EXAGGERATOR with ALL with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE ($18)

I find it odd, that the experts are pointing to Cherry Wine and his maiden win over the slop.  And nothing on Abiding Star and his win with a much much higher rating on the slop.  Sure, Abiding Star is going up in class.  But he's won 5 in a row, with his highest rating on the slop.  I don't know if he can win it.  But he should be up there in the exotics.

[Homebrewer]

1 minute ago, gotbeer said:

I find it odd, that the experts are pointing to Cherry Wine and his maiden win over the slop.  And nothing on Abiding Star and his win with a much much higher rating on the slop.  Sure, Abiding Star is going up in class.  But he's won 5 in a row, with his highest rating on the slop.  I don't know if he can win it.  But he should be up there in the exotics.

Abiding Star-Stradivari-Uncle Lino all have some serious speed, and solid figures.

I think they, as a whole, expect a hot pace, even in the rain.. and tiring speed down the stretch because of the off conditions.

Cheery Wine seems to be a Draw pick, getting Lanerie and the rail.

[gotbeer]

One thing I hate about Pimlico.  So many damn tents in the infield. It's hard to see the race with all the blockage of the camera angles.

[Homebrewer]

@Adam

R6 $0.20 Pick 6 - $5.40 

4 W

1,2,5

1,2,7

5

1,5,14

5

 

 

 

 

 You got your single to start it off..

[Homebrewer]

6 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

@Adam

R6 $0.20 Pick 6 - $5.40 

4 W

1,2,5

1,2,7

5

1,5,14

5

 

 

 

 

 You got your single to start it off..but 1 and 2 are scratched..

Which will leave you with the 5 and the favorite I think??? (looks to be between the 5 and the 7)

 

Edited May 20, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

9 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

@Adam

R6 $0.20 Pick 6 - $5.40 

4 W

1,2,5

1,2,7

5

1,5,14

5

 

 

 

 

 You got your single to start it off..

I actually didn't play this with the scratch of the 1 and 2. I mean I did, but I played a pick em ticket. 

4-5-1-6-5-5

Edited May 20, 2016 by Adam