Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

After what he did at 2-1, I'd say the most we should expect is even money.

[Homebrewer]

33 minutes ago, Adam said:

If I play the Preakness, it will be a small ticket. I'll key Nyquist on top because the Derby winner nearly always wins the Preakness

Nyquist (Guessing 1/2)

Uncle Lino (35-1), Dazzling Gem (15-1), Stradiveri (9-2)

Uncle Lino, Dazzling Gem, Stradiveri, Cherry Win (25-1)

 

 

I'll toss Exaggerator and Collected 

You really think Stradiveri could be 9-2?? Exaggerator might be that low, I expected more 5 or 6 to 1 (hey isn't that a Chicago song?)and at least 10-1 on Strad.

I could see spending less and leaving Exaggerator out of an exacta...depends on the will pays as post time gets close (10-15 mins)

if the $2 exacta falls under 10 bucks, the pools will be heavy in that combo, and the payoffs will be much, much, juicier if Exaggerator gets boxed in again...(which could very well happen)

 

even a 15 exacta x 50 is .. 750.00 not bad return on 100.00.

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

Exaggerator may very well run 2nd again, but that isn't worth playing.  I think the better will be super top heavy. There isn't a confirmed field yet...

Nyquist - 1/2

Exaggerator - 3-1

Stradiveri - 9-2

Collected 10-1

Gun Runner 10-1

Everyone else 25-1 +

[Homebrewer]

One of the things that bothers me is having Kent on Exaggerator.

He's burned me more times that I can count. Lets see how the horses look when they go out and breeze this week.

I'm playing with house money now, so I'm braver than usual.

I'd like a hefty profit and a fat ass bankroll heading to NY. 

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Adam said:

That would surprise me. But maybe. I couldn't believe he was 2-1 in the Derby

And to think.  American Pharoah was 2.9-1.  Trying to think, but was he even the favorite?  Or was it Dortmund?

[Adam]

Pharaoh was favored. Dortmund was 9-2

[Homebrewer]

Any Uncle Lino news yet Adam?

[Homebrewer]

@Adam Are you still in Vegas?

Saw they had major problems at MaCarron yesterday, scan machines were down and luggage was being stacked on the tarmac?

Sounds like fun.

[Adam]

I drove back on Thursday night. Re: Uncle Lino, it was actually Sherlocks son who I put the pick 4 ticket together with.

They think they have a good shot at 3rd place, are optimistic that they can hit 2nd if everything goes well but would be happy to cash any check. 

Pointing to the Kings Bishop at Saratoga as their primary goal.

[Adam]

Breeders Cup tickets go on sale this Thursday for previous ticket buyers. 

http://www.breederscup.com/tickets?utm_source=bc_database&utm_medium=email&utm_content=notification&utm_campaign=pre-sale_2

[gotbeer]

Looks like I will be at the Finish Line for BC.  Unless I decide to volunteer.

[gotbeer]

Just looked on Weather.com.   100% chance of rain for Saturday in Baltimore.

[Adam]

Cherry Wine gonna light up the tri! 

[Adam]

Sucks for the turf races

[gotbeer]

6 minutes ago, Adam said:

Sucks for the turf races

Yeah, I was going to handicap the entire card after it comes out today.  But now I'm not sure I'll even bother with the turf races.  I guess they may run the stakes on the turf, but weather.com is saying 1 inches of rain in the AM.  And showers in the PM.

[Adam]

I've got the BES card if you want it

[gotbeer]

please.  I need to figure out the double. 

[Adam]

Sent

[gotbeer]

Losers for the Black Eyed Susan

On Top

• 3 Land Over Sea 2/1
• 5 Go Maggie Go 5/2

Plays

Exacta ($1)

• 3 Land Over Sea 2/1 with 5 Go Maggie Go 5/2 box $2
• 3, 5 with 3, 5, 10 Kinsley Kisses 6/1, 11 In the Navy 30/1 $8

Trifecta ($0.50)

• 3, 5 with 3, 5, 10, 11 with 3, 5, 10, 11, 14 Moms on Strike 15/1 $9

Superfecta ($0.10)

• 3, 5 with 3, 5, 10, 11 with 3, 5, 10, 11, 14 with 3, 5, 10, 11, 14, 13 cced 15/1 $5.40

[Adam]

Pimlico Friday: Races 7-14

 

Race 7 - Pimlico Special - 9.5F Dirt GIII

 

1-Page McKinney (5-2)

 7-Noble Bird (3-1)

 2-Stanford (8-5)

 

If Noble Bird breaks well he should pressure Stanford on the Pace. Stanford doesn't usually finish when pressured. Noble Bird is terribly inconsistent. The outside post should help. Page McKinney can sit a few lengths off those two and pass them in the stretch. Bit of a home field advantage for him as well. 2-1-1-0 at Pimlico. Unfortunately, it doesn't look too good for the longer prices here. 5-Idelo Portino (12-1) is the most interesting of the prices.

 

Race 8 - Turf Sprint - 5F Grass Stakes

 

1-Rapid Dan (8-1)

 2-Ben's Cat (9-5)

 7-Rocket Heat (5-2)

 5-Night Officer (3-1)

 

Rocket Heat is definitely the fastest horse in this race. If he gets loose on the lead he'll be really tough to catch. I anticipate a tough pace scenario for him as drawn to his inside is Big Guy Ian (20-1) who went 21 2/5 for the first quarter in his last at Belmont and has a ton of early run. If these two hook up, it will set it up for those sitting off. 2-Ben's Cat is a popular horse with 31 wins and $2.5 Million in lifetime earnings. He's old though. Real old. I prefer 1-Rapid Dan, who finished third to Ben's Cat last out and could get a dream trip on the rail at a big price, 2nd off the layoff.  Night Officer is another closing type who could make noise. I'll use all 4 in multis.

 

Race 9 - Distaff - 9F Dirt GIII

 

5-Ahh Chocolate (5-1)

 2-Engaginglee (6-1)

 4-Mei Ling (3-1)

 

Mei Ling will likely be favored and could wire this field if left alone on the front as a need the lead type. My concern for her is the entry of the sprinter 9-Super Majesty (15-1) who is likely to show speed as well. If there is any fight for the front, it will wipe out either horse's chances. Ahh Chocolate won a GII at this distance to close out 2015 and should fire third off the layoff. 2-Engaginlee is another with a closing chance if she works out a good trip. May throw in 1-Theogony as not much separates her from the others.

 

Race 10 - Hilltop - 8.5F Turf Stakes

 

1-Cowgirl Tough (20-1)

 14-Wessex (8-1)

 ALL

 

This is one of the tougher races I've looked at in a long time. I'll give my checkmark to 1-Cowgirl Tough (20-1) because she likes to cross the finish line first. 4 out of 6 races (DQ'd once). She'll also be a really nice price, though don't expect the 20-1 ML to ring true. 12-1 is more likely. 14-Wessex (8-1) won her debut and tries stakes company immediately. Mott must think she can run. Will spread something crazy in here.

 

Race 11 - Black Eyed Susan - 9F Dirt GII

 

5-Go Maggie Go (5-2)

 2-Dothraki Queen (15-1)

 3-Land Over Sea (2-1)

 

Go Maggie Go will offer value if she's second choice. She ran much better than Land Over Sea in the KY Oaks but faced more trouble. I'd take 9-5 on her. Dothraki Queen had a very good 1 year old campaign and finished third in the BC Juvenile Fillies. She's had a couple of wide/poor trips in her first two three-year old starts. If she can save ground, she should fire her best race. Land Over Sea is the likely favorite, who should definitely hit the board against this group.  6-She's A Warrior (6-1), 10-Kinsley Kisses (6-1) are also possible underneath.

 

Race 12 - $32K Optional Claimer - 8.5F Turf

 

11-Metaboss (9-2)

 5-Set To Music (8-1)

 2-Phlash Phelps (3-1)

 1-Helm (6-1)

 

I'm having a hard time separating my top 4 selections in here. Metaboss may be the class of the field, winning the El Camino Real Derby a year ago and running well despite trouble in his debut this year. Set To Music is lightly raced and 1 for 1 at the distance. Trainer fires with fresh horses. The two inside runners fit on speed and form.

 

Race 13 - Miss Preakness - 6F Dirt GIII

 

6-Moment Is Right (5-1)

 4-Lost Raven (5-1)

 9-Banree (7-2)

 

There is a lot of early speed in this race and not a lot of clarity as to which horses can change tactics successfully. I'm going to take horses that are proven off of the lead. Moment Is Right looks like she'll get a perfect stalking trip. Hopefully in her second after the layoff she can finish, unlike in her last race, in which she stalked, made a move to lead before fading to second. Lost Raven may or may not need the lead, but she has 2 wins and 1 place from three 6F races. Pletcher is dynamite in sprint stakes. 9-Banree is back to sprinting on dirt, where she's had her best success.

 

Race 14 - Starter Allowance - 9F Turf

 

11-Cruise More (4-1)

ALL

 

Cruise More looks like the most likely winner. Consistent runner, dropping in class a bit. If not him, who? I don't know.

[Adam]

In Race 12, I'll add the 8 (3 for 3 at distance) and the 10. 

[Homebrewer]

So has Nyquist run on an off track? And if against what caliber of horses..

I wonder what the chances of them scratching him are.

Either way exaggerator gets bet down, which isn't good for my strategy..

 

[Adam]

The Florida Derby was on an off track. Not muddy but wet. You can't bet him to win though if its muddy. 

[Homebrewer]

Time to talk to your connex dude...get us the scoop on what they think about Uncle Lino in the mud..

40 or 50-1 PS bet could pay well

Edited May 18, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

Notifications for Thursday, May 19
Golden Gate Fields
$852,602	Carryover for Golden Pick 6 Jackpot
$4,841	Carryover for Super High 5