Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Shit HB, seems like you have to bet the favorite in the derby now. I learned a ton this year. I had maybe my best day of handicapping ever and had very little to show for it because of how I bet the races. 90% of bankroll was tied into the Derby. Stupid because I loved Divisidero and I liked Camelot Kitten quite a bit as well and I just made small action plays. I should have slayed it yesterday. Frustrating. 

[gotbeer]

45 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Mohaymen ran well, finishing alongside Gun Runner and Suddenbreakingnews in a photo.

I've been trying to watch Exaggerator's run, would like to find somewhere that isolates cameras on horses, but have yet to find anything.

It looks like he had to swing from the rail to 4 wide at the 1/4 pole or so, and that might have cost him the race right there. Kent is not my favorite rider to put it mildly...but it doesn't look like he did anything really stupid...although with the camera coverage and the multitude of horses it's really hard to pick out one horse and watch his trip.

Had a decent day even without a winner in the derby..which is usually the other way around for me. I usually suck on the undercard and make it back in the derby.

It's funny.  The Trainer Bother said that Exaggerator just got beat.  But Kent said that he had to slam on the brakes around the turn and work his way out.  It's hard to see from the replays, since A) horse is covered in dirt, so it's hard to see the silks and B ) the angle is so wide that it's hard to see who's who. 

But from what I can tell.  He was coming around the turn, and wanted to go out.  But a horse kept him pinned in.  It wasn't until that horse faded that he was able to get out and that was in the stretch. 

Could have have won?  Don't know.  I don't think Nyquist was really being asked.  Although, the way he shot out of the cannon at the SA Derby, he could have made it a very interesting ending. 

[gotbeer]

2016 Preakness Stakes: What the field may look like

It'll be interesting.  Might be a big field, which will be good for betting purposes.

[Homebrewer]

19 minutes ago, Adam said:

Shit HB, seems like you have to bet the favorite in the derby now. I learned a ton this year. I had maybe my best day of handicapping ever and had very little to show for it because of how I bet the races. 90% of bankroll was tied into the Derby. Stupid because I loved Divisidero and I liked Camelot Kitten quite a bit as well and I just made small action plays. I should have slayed it yesterday. Frustrating. 

It IS frustrating to have so many winners and not bet them the way one should have..it's sort of why I have gone to more vertical bets, and why I love the 50 cent trifecta. My handicapping has evolved into a search for obvious contenders and sneaky underneath horses at prices...and then box it up...I don't know how many times I had good longshots that I picked for underneath.. that won, and my betting style closed me out of horizontal bets.

Another thing is betting early...and why I love internet betting while watching post parades and paddocks and the tote, especially the tote...it's the same as being there without having a chance at getting stuck in line and closed out at the window..I really like playing it by ear and betting late (close to post time)...and yeah, it's been hard not to bet favorites in the derby for a few years, but that will change.  A nice run of favorites will open it up when the favorites start losing again. That's where the real money is there to be made!

[Homebrewer]

20 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

It's funny.  The Trainer Bother said that Exaggerator just got beat.  But Kent said that he had to slam on the brakes around the turn and work his way out.  It's hard to see from the replays, since A) horse is covered in dirt, so it's hard to see the silks and B ) the angle is so wide that it's hard to see who's who. 

But from what I can tell.  He was coming around the turn, and wanted to go out.  But a horse kept him pinned in.  It wasn't until that horse faded that he was able to get out and that was in the stretch. 

Could have have won?  Don't know.  I don't think Nyquist was really being asked.  Although, the way he shot out of the cannon at the SA Derby, he could have made it a very interesting ending. 

I can see him pull of the rail and swing out 4 wide, but can't see what happened before that. It seemed like a real late move, so maybe he was pinned in a significant ways before that. Like you said, it's very hard to see anything with the field so strung out, the dirt, and the bad camera angles.

[Adam]

36 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

It IS frustrating to have so many winners and not bet them the way one should have..it's sort of why I have gone to more vertical bets, and why I love the 50 cent trifecta. My handicapping has evolved into a search for obvious contenders and sneaky underneath horses at prices...and then box it up...I don't know how many times I had good longshots that I picked for underneath.. that won, and my betting style closed me out of horizontal bets.

Another thing is betting early...and why I love internet betting while watching post parades and paddocks and the tote, especially the tote...it's the same as being there without having a chance at getting stuck in line and closed out at the window..I really like playing it by ear and betting late (close to post time)...and yeah, it's been hard not to bet favorites in the derby for a few years, but that will change.  A nice run of favorites will open it up when the favorites start losing again. That's where the real money is there to be made!

At the same time, I was playing to put myself in a position to make $20K. It didn't work out but I was alive to about $10K in the derby had things gone right. 

[gotbeer]

 

Looking at it slowly.  Exaggerator is leading the second to last group at the .48 mark.  At around 1:15 on the backstretch, his group is closing in on the group in front of them.  Aournd the 1:20 mark, just as they are entering into the stretch, Exaggerator was going to go on the outside of the horse that he was trailing down the stretch but another horse just stopped, forcing Exaggerator to cut to the rail.  This might be where he was talking about that he had to slam on the breaks.  At the end of the turn around the 1:35 mark, he goes from rail to outside when he has an opening. 

So not sure if he would have caught him.  But Exaggerator had to work for it. 

[Homebrewer]

That's serious money Adam. I've only experienced that a few times in many years, alive to one race for big money, and never had it come together either...

But just that possibility is thrilling in itself. It keeps us coming back. 

[Homebrewer]

6 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

 

Looking at it slowly.  Exaggerator is leading the second to last group at the .48 mark.  At around 1:15 on the backstretch, his group is closing in on the group in front of them.  Aournd the 1:20 mark, just as they are entering into the stretch, Exaggerator was going to go on the outside of the horse that he was trailing down the stretch but another horse just stopped, forcing Exaggerator to cut to the rail.  This might be where he was talking about that he had to slam on the breaks.  At the end of the turn around the 1:35 mark, he goes from rail to outside when he has an opening. 

So not sure if he would have caught him.  But Exaggerator had to work for it. 

That was my feeling after the race, that Exaggerator might have had to do a lot more work...being back in the pack of closers and needing to wind his way through. It bodes well for a nice exacta payout in the Preakness if he gets a cleaner trip.

Have to watch and see reports on how both horses came out of the race..

Remember Real Quiet and Victory Gallop? I made some money playing those two horses in the triple crown series...and  Exaggerator reminds me a whole bunch of Victory Gallop...I really cleaned up on the Belmont when he final caught 'Quiet.

This series of races could set up a lot like those if these horses stay sound.

[Tank]

18 hours ago, gotbeer said:

I can't even afford the water in the first pic.

ditto.

stupid el nino.

[Homebrewer]

21 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

That was my feeling after the race, that Exaggerator might have had to do a lot more work...being back in the pack of closers and needing to wind his way through. It bodes well for a nice exacta payout in the Preakness if he gets a cleaner trip.

Have to watch and see reports on how both horses came out of the race..

Remember Real Quiet and Victory Gallop? I made some money playing those two horses in the triple crown series...and  Exaggerator reminds me a whole bunch of Victory Gallop...I really cleaned up on the Belmont when he final caught 'Quiet.

This series of races could set up a lot like those if these horses stay sound.

22 hours ago, gotbeer said:

 

Looking at it slowly.  Exaggerator is leading the second to last group at the .48 mark.  At around 1:15 on the backstretch, his group is closing in on the group in front of them.  Aournd the 1:20 mark, just as they are entering into the stretch, Exaggerator was going to go on the outside of the horse that he was trailing down the stretch but another horse just stopped, forcing Exaggerator to cut to the rail.  This might be where he was talking about that he had to slam on the breaks.  At the end of the turn around the 1:35 mark, he goes from rail to outside when he has an opening. 

So not sure if he would have caught him.  But Exaggerator had to work for it. 

I've watched a few times now...and I have to say that move off the rail was really nice...good riding, just a few seconds too late, which wasn't really Kent's fault he just had to wait until he had a lane to shoot out into. Maybe he should have kept him 2 or 3 wide and he wouldn't have had to lose those strides going sideways, but maybe he had no choice but to stay on the rail around the turn?

Nyquist just kept going and had the dream trip. Ran a great race. He'll have an even bigger target on his back in Baltimore and post position might not be as favorable...I've no doubt that Exaggerator can catch him when the race sets up right for it, and If Kent can stay sober for a few weeks.

Don't want another Triple Crown winner so soon.

[Adam]

Tactical speed is just such an advantage, especially in longer races. Makes what Zenyatta was able to do that much better. So often the best racehorse in a race is a closer, but because of the pace and trip disadvantages, they win at a much lower rate than quicker horses. For Z to go 20-19-1-0 with that running style is beyond remarkable. 

[Homebrewer]

10 minutes ago, Adam said:

Tactical speed is just such an advantage, especially in longer races. Makes what Zenyatta was able to do that much better. So often the best racehorse in a race is a closer, but because of the pace and trip disadvantages, they win at a much lower rate than quicker horses. For Z to go 20-19-1-0 with that running style is beyond remarkable. 

She really was incredible...and Mike Smith isn't in the HOF for nothing. He really had a special relationship with her, rating her and setting her up so perfectly so many times. The best at it, still to this day the best I've ever seen, was Eddie Delahoussaye. 

I still keep an eye on Zenny...she's doing really well having babies. What a cool horse.

[Homebrewer]

On ‎5‎/‎9‎/‎2016 at 10:15 AM, gotbeer said:

2016 Preakness Stakes: What the field may look like

It'll be interesting.  Might be a big field, which will be good for betting purposes.

Hell of a lot more speed to contend with if this lineup goes...and f'n Sharp Azecta sure was impressive in the mile Saturday. I wouldn't be shocked to see that one wire em if he's really as good as he looked in that race. He blew away a pretty good field there and looked like he was ready to go round again.

Danger Will Robinson... 

[Adam]

Sharp Azteca isn't going

Saving him for Summer per trainer

[Homebrewer]

22 flat and 44 flat...

[Homebrewer]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

Sharp Azteca isn't going

Saving him for Summer per trainer

Race must have taken too much outa him...I mean 22 and 44?

Really..

[Adam]

Saving grace for me is I wouldn't have used him in any pick 4 tickets. That was certainly an impressive run. 

[Adam]

I hope Uncle Lino can hit the board. I'll give you guys the 411 on what Sherlock thinks his chances are. Seeing his son this week in Vegas. 

[Homebrewer]

4 minutes ago, Adam said:

Sharp Azteca isn't going

Saving him for Summer per trainer

The thing that really stood out about that horse, other than holding up to blistering fractions....

Was how BEAUTIFUL he is, I've seen a lot of horseflesh in my day, but wow. He really stood out.. gleaming dark black coat and perfect confirmation. 

[Adam]

I figure, the CA form is best. He finished 3rd to Exaggerator and can do it again. Distance might be a bit much though. I'll use him in 3rd for sure though at 25-1

[Adam]

Just now, Homebrewer said:

The thing that really stood out about that horse, other than holding up to blistering fractions....

Was how BEAUTIFUL he is, I've seen a lot of horseflesh in my day, but wow. He really stood out.. gleaming dark black coat and perfect confirmation. 

Definitely one to watch. I mean, that race, if he can repeat it, competes with Runhappy, Private Zone... 

[Homebrewer]

I saw Uncle Lino in there and remembered you had connex to the connex...They're still believing if they're ready to ship back East..

[Adam]

I hope Suddenbreakingnews skips the preakness. I'd love for him to run fresh in the Belmont. His only struggle is on the turns and those long wide turns at Belmont might help him big time. 

[Homebrewer]

11 minutes ago, Adam said:

I hope Suddenbreakingnews skips the preakness. I'd love for him to run fresh in the Belmont. His only struggle is on the turns and those long wide turns at Belmont might help him big time. 

That's been the strategy the past few years. Don't know much about his connex...Von Hemel.

Looks like he's based at Oaklawn.