Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

See "Distaff" in your  glossary of racing terms..

[gotbeer]

And about the Oaks.  I thought I'd get better odds than 9-2 on Weep No More.  Hopefully I'll get an overlay on Oaks day. 

 

And Adam, if you get the Oaks day PP, shoot me off a copy.

[gotbeer]

The Kentucky Derby favorite who's nobody's favorite

 

Just a strange article.  Especially considering, American Pharoah finished at close to 3-1 odds last year ($7.80 to win). 

[gotbeer]

Stanley Cup to be in Nyquist's barn Saturday as motivation for Kentucky Derby

[Adam]

I've narrowed down my selections

As: Suddenbreakingnews and Nyquist

Bs: Exaggerator, Destin, Brody's Cause

Cs: Mor spirit, Creator

[Adam]

Lewis Bay looks like tremendous value in the oaks.

[gotbeer]

Brisnet's updated Oaks pp.

 

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYOaks16.pdf

[gotbeer]

Quote

 

Prelim picks.  Which I probably won't change.  So I'll lose.  But if I change, I would have been right, and I will lose.  You get the picture.  Anyways.

 

Oaks

1/2 Terra Promessa and Weep No More

2 Royal Obsession

2/3 Rachel's Valentina

3 Taxable

 

Super Terra Promessa, Weep No More with TP, WNM, Royal Obsession, Rachel's Velentina with TP, WNM, RO, RV, Taxable  $3.60

 

Derby

1/2 Nyquist and Exaggerator

2 Creator

3 Brody's Cause and My Man Sam

4 Gun Runner and Suddenbreakingnews

 

Super Nyquist, Exaggerator with N, E, Creator with N, E, C, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam with N, E, C, BC, MMS, Gun Runner, Sudenbreakingnews $4.80 

 

Might also play a Exaggerator/Creator exacta.  My hope is those two hitch up for the stretch run.

 

So now you know what horses not to bet on.

 

 

 

Revised Oaks bet.

 

Oaks

2  Weep No More

 

3 Lewis Bay 13 Land Over Sea

 

11 Rachel's Valentina

 

12 Cathryn Sophia

 

L/S 14 Taxable

 

Plays will probably be

Exacta 2 with 3, 13

Trifecta 2 with 3, 13, 11, 14 with 3, 13, 11, 12, 14 (think they have $0.50 Tri's, so that would be a $8 ticket)

Super 2 with 13 with 14, 11 with 3, 11  $2 lottery ticket

 

Oaks/Derby Double  2 with Nyquist, Exaggerator, Creator

Edited May 4, 2016 by gotbeer

[Adam]

I have the oaks PPs and will be getting derby pps today.

 

you want them both?

[gotbeer]

sure

[Adam]

The wifi in my hotel is shoddy 

 

Ill give it a shot post draw 

[gotbeer]

Kentucky Derby

1. Trojan Nation – Jockey Aaron Grider

2. Suddenbreakingnews – Jockey Luis Quinonez

3. Creator – Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.

4. Mo Tom – Jockey Corey Lanerie

5. Gun Runner – Jockey Florent Geroux

6. My Man Sam – Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

7. Oscar Nominated – Jockey Julien Leparoux

8. Lani – Jockey Yukata Take

9. Destin – Jockey Javier Castellano

10. Whitmore – Jockey Victor Espinoza

11. Exaggerator – Jockey Kent Desormeaux

12. Tom’s Ready – Jockey Brian Hernandex Jr.

13. Nyquist – Jockey Mario Gutierrez

14. Mohaymen – Jockey Junior Alvarado

15. Outwork – Jockey John Velazquez

16. Shagaf – Jockey Joel Rosario

17. Mor Spirit – Jockey Gary Stevens

18. Majesto – Jockey Emisael Jaramillo

19. Brody’s Cause – Jockey Luis Saez

20. Danzing Candy – Jockey Mike Smith

Also eligible

21. Laoban – Jockey Cornelio Velasquez

22. Cherry Wine – Jockey Robby Albarado

[gotbeer]

Suddenlybreakingnews, Creator, Danzing Candy, Brody's Cause.  Ouch on those positions.

[Adam]

I have no problems with closers getting inside. Ice Box made a huge run from the 2. Materiality last year ran huge from the 3 having to close. Brody's Cause got ****ed. I like it for Suddenbreakingnews and Creator. They'll get a rail trip and save lots of ground. Nyquist and Gun Runner drew extremely well also. 

I think the closers are going to have a real shot. Danzing Candy is either going to go wide or fly. Smith will press the gas. If one of these dumb asses like Lani or Shagaf scratch and Laoban gets in...WOW! 

Also, the way Mohaymen and Mor Spirit have been training, they could get seriously locked up together and with Outwork and have to really run to get position.

Nyquist, Destin and Gun Runner were huge winners. 

[gotbeer]

I might be reading too much into this.  Ok, I am reading too much into this. 

But Gun Runner stands out as a great position.  He is the lone speed with horses on the inside and outside that want no part of a lead. 

The other speed is coming from the extreme outside, Outwork, Shagaf, Mor Spirit, Danzing Candy.  Post 15+  So I see Gun Runner go for the pole easily.  Those four will have to go wide and fast to get to the lead.  If I was Gun Runner, I'd stay in that wide slot and make those 4 go really far around me. 

Then Tom's Ready, Nyquist, Mohaymen will slot right behind Gun Runner.  Which is again the problem with the speed, since they are outside this bunch. 

Exaggerator got IMO, best position for the closers, since he should slot right behind the second pack. 

So my thoughts are.   If Gun Runner gets first jump, he could be gone.  Nyquist should be right there though, and should be in good position.  I don't know if Mohaymen can keep up with Nyquist.  If he tries to get in front, he might burn himself out with the speed coming from the outside.  Tom's Ready though might come in the money, but I don't know if he has the distance.  Exaggerator should have a good position to fly late.  I don't think Whitmore would be there.  Destin has a shot at the lower, and Lani is the unknown. 

So 5 Gun Runner, 13 Nyquist, 11 Exaggerator would be my top picks

LS 8 Lani

In the money 9 Destin

Exacta 5, 13, 11

Tri 5, 13, 11 with 5, 13, 11 with 5, 13, 11, 9, 8

Super 11, 13 with 11, 13 with 5 with 9, 8  (what can I say, I'm cheap)

My donation to the derby.

[gotbeer]

18 minutes ago, Adam said:

If one of these dumb asses like Lani or Shagaf scratch and Laoban gets in...WOW! 

 

So say someone scratches.  Where would Laoban get?  Far 20 slot?  Or replace the horse that scratches slot?  Because if it's far outside or Shagaf's spot, I don't think it's a big deal.  All the speed will still be grouped.  But if he goes in the 8 slot, then the entire race changes. 

[Homebrewer]

Mohaymen can draft right in behind Nyquist.

13-14-17-2...in some order.

 

[Adam]

No way Mohaymen finishes in the top 10

[Adam]

He's been training like shit. Uncontrollable. Going way too fast. Getting tired. 

[Adam]

I'm sure I just put him into the winners circle.

[Adam]

13 hours ago, gotbeer said:

I might be reading too much into this.  Ok, I am reading too much into this. 

But Gun Runner stands out as a great position.  He is the lone speed with horses on the inside and outside that want no part of a lead. 

The other speed is coming from the extreme outside, Outwork, Shagaf, Mor Spirit, Danzing Candy.  Post 15+  So I see Gun Runner go for the pole easily.  Those four will have to go wide and fast to get to the lead.  If I was Gun Runner, I'd stay in that wide slot and make those 4 go really far around me. 

Then Tom's Ready, Nyquist, Mohaymen will slot right behind Gun Runner.  Which is again the problem with the speed, since they are outside this bunch. 

Exaggerator got IMO, best position for the closers, since he should slot right behind the second pack. 

So my thoughts are.   If Gun Runner gets first jump, he could be gone.  Nyquist should be right there though, and should be in good position.  I don't know if Mohaymen can keep up with Nyquist.  If he tries to get in front, he might burn himself out with the speed coming from the outside.  Tom's Ready though might come in the money, but I don't know if he has the distance.  Exaggerator should have a good position to fly late.  I don't think Whitmore would be there.  Destin has a shot at the lower, and Lani is the unknown. 

So 5 Gun Runner, 13 Nyquist, 11 Exaggerator would be my top picks

LS 8 Lani

In the money 9 Destin

Exacta 5, 13, 11

Tri 5, 13, 11 with 5, 13, 11 with 5, 13, 11, 9, 8

Super 11, 13 with 11, 13 with 5 with 9, 8  (what can I say, I'm cheap)

My donation to the derby.

Exaggerator is an A for me as well, but I don't think he'll be closing from far back. He ran a 48 1/2 in the SA derby, which is the same time Outwork ran in the Tampa Bay Derby on the lead. The speed was just so quick in that race. Kent said he wants to sit pretty close to the speed in the Derby. 

My As: Nyquist A+, Suddenbreakingnews A, Destin A, Exaggerator A

[Angel Oracle]

Just read today (guessing I'm far behind on it) that Nyquist is named after a Detroit Red Wings player, and that Nyquist's owner also named two other racehorses after Red Wing players (Datsyuk and Tatar).

Just saw the post a page back, where the Stanley Cup will be in Nyquist's barn for race day.

 

Edited May 5, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[gotbeer]

Oaks day.  These are the horses that stood out.  Too bad they are all short chalk.

Race 4 - 7 Family Tree 9/5, moving down in class, has the best speed figures. 

Race 6 - 2 Sheer Drama 8/5, second off a layoff.  Won in a shorter distance off the layoff, and had a big beyer. 

Race 7 - 5 Carina Mia 8/5, moving down in distance, good speed figures, and may just run away with it

Race 8 - 12 Guns Loaded 4/1, won his last 3, cutting back from the downhill to 5f, last 4 races, his beyers have been gettting better

Race 10 - 10 Catch a Glimpse 2/1, won his last 5, speed figures are consistent and fast for this group

 

There you go.  The losers of the day.

 

[gotbeer]

Finally, Oaks day.  Win big boys.

[Adam]

21 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Oaks day.  These are the horses that stood out.  Too bad they are all short chalk.

Race 4 - 7 Family Tree 9/5, moving down in class, has the best speed figures. 

Race 6 - 2 Sheer Drama 8/5, second off a layoff.  Won in a shorter distance off the layoff, and had a big beyer. 

Race 7 - 5 Carina Mia 8/5, moving down in distance, good speed figures, and may just run away with it

Race 8 - 12 Guns Loaded 4/1, won his last 3, cutting back from the downhill to 5f, last 4 races, his beyers have been gettting better

Race 10 - 10 Catch a Glimpse 2/1, won his last 5, speed figures are consistent and fast for this group

 

There you go.  The losers of the day.

 

I was going to make a joke about how chalky you are but it does seem like it will be a chalky day.

however, the sprint and aleysheba might be live for some prices