Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

I don't know if either you or GB or NHC Tour members, but there's a free NHC qualifier on Saturday on DRF Tournaments page. I finished in the top 20% last time. There will probably be 1000 entries. Giving away 4 entries to the NHC next year. 

[gotbeer]

How does the DRF tourny go?  Is it open to any race, or do they have a set number of races, and you have to bet those?

[Adam]

The free ones are generally pick and pray. All your picks in before the races start. They choose 10-12 races and provide you with PPs.

 

$50/year for an NHC Tour Membership tho. Man, I want to qualify for the NHC just once. 

[gotbeer]

10 minutes ago, Adam said:

The free ones are generally pick and pray. All your picks in before the races start. They choose 10-12 races and provide you with PPs.

 

$50/year for an NHC Tour Membership tho. Man, I want to qualify for the NHC just once. 

 

On occassion, Santa Anita has seats to NHC or BC or some kind of bigger tournaments in their handicapping contest.  Of course the caveat is you have to be at the track. 

[Adam]

The BCBC would be fun too. 

[gotbeer]

Preakness: Brody's Cause, Suddenbreakingnews to await Belmont Stakes

 

Good move by Suddenbreakingnews.  Wish Exaggerator would follow suit.  

[Homebrewer]

A smaller field will make it better for the closers, especially if some serious early speed fills in the empty spots...but the betting opportunities will be worse for the public. Could be an example of a "hit the exacta hard" race? I've done well in the past on those in bigger races.

Ferdinand and Alysheba, they  kept paying 25-30+ during their matchups in the 80's, and kept hitting the wire together race after race.  Alysheba and Bet twice also battled each other many times, and the full fields always made the exacta pay nicely..

$100 box was such easy money..

Lets hope the weather is good and the undercard is appetizing..

Edited May 12, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

@Tank Ever wonder why people become racing fans for life?

I was there ...I knew when I left that day, that I would be a fan of the sport for the rest of my life. (I went to the track for the 1st time in my life in 84 (Del mar) 

1987 Breeders Cup Classic (Hollywood Park)

 

[Tank]

SO WHO WON?!?!?!?

don't leave me in suspense, dude.

[Homebrewer]

Ferdinand....by a nostril.

Those 2 horses duked it out many times...Seeing Mrs Keck (the owner of Ferdinand) reminds me of what happened to Ferdinand, one of the uglier episodes in modern racing history...google The Ferdinand Clause for further information.

[gotbeer]

Yeah, what happened to him was pretty ugly.  Huge black eye for Japanese Racing. 

[Homebrewer]

9 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Yeah, what happened to him was pretty ugly.  Huge black eye for Japanese Racing. 

The same people that still slaughter whales...

 

Edited May 12, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

Some stakes at Belmont on Saturday (since I still have a bank from last Saturday, I might look at these in more depth..

 

Race 7 – Ruffian Stakes (Gr II; 250k) – F&M 4YO+ - 1 Mile
When racing in New York turns back to Belmont, I’m the first to admit that I’m a sucker for betting the ‘horse for course’ angle. Between its long stretch and unique surface, Belmont is definitely a track that some horses like and others hate. Plus, where else in North American can you find one-turn, 1 1/8-mile races? And while this race isn’t quite that long, it carries the same principle. #6 CARRUMBA is a perfect 2-for-2 in one-mile, one-turn races here and should sit a perfect stalking trip from just outside the likely pacesetter, #4 CALAMITY KATE. That gives her a huge edge. #1 CAVORTING is a bet against in my eyes. She’s just 1-for-6 in races 7-furlongs and beyond and the rider switch away from Irad Ortiz Jr. feels like a desperate move. She hasn’t run back to last summer’s form and is tough to like based on that alone. #2 INCLUDE BETTY took advantage of extreme circumstances to win the Mother Goose here last summer, but probably won’t get that type of setup here.

1. Carrumba
2. Include Betty
3. Cavorting

Race 8 – Beaugay Stakes (Gr III; 150k) – F&M 4YO+ - 1 1/16 Miles Turf
#8 MY MISS SOPHIA has been a different animal since moving over to the turf. She took an allowance field wire-to-wire here last June (stopping the clock in a snappy 1:46 4/5) prior to dropping three decisions. Don’t be too hard on her for those, though. Look at the running lines to see that all-world mare, Tepin, was in all three races. Depending on how this shakes out, don’t be surprised if MY MISS SOPHIA tracks or sets the pace and refuses to look back. The lone Grade 1 winner in the field is #3 BALL DANCING, but she has some questions to answer after an uncharacteristically disappointing seasonal debut in which she failed to do much running while beaten 11-lengths by Tepin in Tampa’s Hillsborough. And it’s not that she was beaten that day (that happens), but it’s that she finished 8th of 10 and never had any run. If the good BALL DANCING shows up, she’s as likely a winner as anyone. If the bad one shows up, you’re in for a long day. #1 RECEPTA drew great and developed into a solid performer last year for Jimmy Toner. She’s 2-for-5 at Belmont and missed by only a head in Del Mar’s Grade 1 Matriarch, so we know there’s talent there. This is her second off the pine and Johnny Velazquez took the call, so all systems appear set to go. Take those three, box them up and see what happens.

1. My Miss Sophia
2. Recepta
3. Ball Dancing

Race 9 – Peter Pan Stakes (Gr II; 200k) – 3YO – 1 1/8 Miles
Forget being the best horse in the field, #7 UNIFIED may be one of the best three-year-olds in North America. He’s already overcome fast and muddy tracks at Gulfstream and Aqueduct and his breeding (by Candy Ride, out of a Dixie Union mare) indicates he should be able to stretch out. And with no world beaters in this group, I’m looking for him to take this bunch to task. The only apparent upsetters are the California invader, #6 WILD ABOUT DEB, and Todd Pletcher’s #4 DECORATED SOLDIER. WILD ABOUT DEB ships cross-country for Phil D’Amato and his stable has been firing on all cylinders this season. He’s the only one of them with a win at 1 1/8-miles, but this is a significant class hike from the maidens he faced last out. DECORATED SOLDIER has a solid closing kick and won Oaklawn’s Northern Spur last out, but he’ll continue to need to improve to challenge UNIFIED.

1. Unified
2. Decorated Soldier
3. Wild About Deb

Race 10 – Man o’ War Stakes (Gr I; 400k) – 4YO+ - 1 3/8 Miles Turf
You’d be crazy to not appreciate the horse that #7 KAIGUN has developed into, and while he won a 1 ½-miles two back, he’s just one for his last eleven and too often settles for second and third place. He’s a cinch to hit the board, but I’ll take someone else on top. For my money, that someone is either #1 MORANDI or #2 MONEY MULTIPLIER. Why? I love the draws and I love the barns. Chad Brown has both in here for a reason and I think both stand a great chance. MORANDI had a miserable trip last out and never got to run, while MONEY MULTIPLIER may be a sneaky progressive type that is getting good with age. He closed stoutly in an allowance race at Aqueduct and should be more prepared this time. I’m taking a stand against Brown’s third horse, #9 WAKE FOREST, who lost the draw and doesn’t seem to get enough pace for his late kick. He’d need them to go fast early, but the only pacesetter here is #5 GO AROUND, and I’m expecting Junior Alvarado to try to drop anchor and slow this bunch way down.

1. Money Multiplier
2. Kaigun
3. Morandi

[Tank]

i googled the ferdinand clause . . .  holy mackeral, that's disturbing on many levels.

[Tank]

i hope john lackey has a ferd - nevermind.

[Homebrewer]

7 minutes ago, Tank said:

i googled the ferdinand clause . . .  holy mackeral, that's disturbing on many levels.

It opened a lot of eyes, and changed the sport for the better...but yeah, it was sad...especially for those of us that loved that horse.

Nowdays you see people like The Mosses...who have owned a Derby winner (Giacomo.) and the GREAT Zenyatta..

They keep ownership and make sure they never want for anything for the rest of their lives..

.

[Homebrewer]

Wish I had seen this earlier!

But they are splitting the mandatory pool between today and tomorrow..

@.20 even I can get into this P6..

Churchill has $343K Mandatory P6 Payout Today

---

May 12, 2016

Saturday's Derby Day Pick 6 at Churchill Downs was virtually impossible for horseplayers to tackle, with longshot winners Catalina Red ($30.20), Camelot Kitten ($39.40), Sharp Azteca ($28.20) and Divisidero ($15.40) ensuring no tickets included all six winners. And while Saturday's results left horseplayers licking their wounds, Saturday's loss also comes as Thursday's gain. There's $686,309 worth of carryover money up for grabs, and $343,154 of it will be paid out tonight!

That's because Churchill has decided to split the carryover into two pots, with $343,154 going as a mandatory amount in the 20-cent Single 6 Jackpot this evening and the other $343,154 used to seed that same pool beginning Friday. Takeout on this wager is just 15% and with its cheap and affordable minimum, it's easy to get involved.

Tonight's racing from Churchill Downs gets underway at 5PM ET, with the Pick 6 kicking off with Race 3, at 6:11PM ET.

[gotbeer]

3 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

It opened a lot of eyes, and changed the sport for the better...but yeah, it was sad...especially for those of us that loved that horse.

Nowdays you see people like The Mosses...who have owned a Derby winner (Giacomo.) and the GREAT Zenyatta..

They keep ownership and make sure they never want for anything for the rest of their lives..

.

And the thing is, it wasn't just Japan.  US and UK/France has been doing this.  But it was just surprising that a horse like that would be discarded after use. 

I'm actually kind of worried about one of my favorite horses right now.  Sahara Sky.  Gelding, so no breeding possibility.  Has won me some money on graded stakes, especially the met mile.  He's made good money over his career.  Is a graded stakes horse.  8 years old.

And he all of a sudden pops up in Golden Gate low level claiming races.  He got scratched from the two races I saw him in.  But it's just sad that they are just discarding him like that.  If I had the money, I'd want to claim him.  And just ride him around the trails.

[gotbeer]

4 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Wish I had seen this earlier!

But they are splitting the mandatory pool between today and tomorrow..

@.20 even I can get into this P6..

Churchill has $343K Mandatory P6 Payout Today

---

May 12, 2016

Saturday's Derby Day Pick 6 at Churchill Downs was virtually impossible for horseplayers to tackle, with longshot winners Catalina Red ($30.20), Camelot Kitten ($39.40), Sharp Azteca ($28.20) and Divisidero ($15.40) ensuring no tickets included all six winners. And while Saturday's results left horseplayers licking their wounds, Saturday's loss also comes as Thursday's gain. There's $686,309 worth of carryover money up for grabs, and $343,154 of it will be paid out tonight!

That's because Churchill has decided to split the carryover into two pots, with $343,154 going as a mandatory amount in the 20-cent Single 6 Jackpot this evening and the other $343,154 used to seed that same pool beginning Friday. Takeout on this wager is just 15% and with its cheap and affordable minimum, it's easy to get involved.

Tonight's racing from Churchill Downs gets underway at 5PM ET, with the Pick 6 kicking off with Race 3, at 6:11PM ET.

They would have gotten a lot more action if it was for Saturday. 

[Adam]

I'm in Vegas. Was going to play that but going through the PPs... Churchill is garbage. $5K claimers routing... No thanks. Would have gone 5 of 6. 

Played the late pick 4 at SA with a couple clients and took it down. Really nice payout today. $832 for $.50

[Homebrewer]

Insider guides for Preakness..

There are a few more opinions on how to wager this one, but everyone is picking Nyquist for obvious reasons, so I'm only including EX and TRI suggestions here.

 

FUN FACTS>>

Exacta Payoffs

(Last 15 years, $2 Payoffs)

Average: $116.19

High: $327.00 (War Emblem-Magic Weisner, 2002)

Low: $18.20 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014)

Notable: Last year’s exacta paid $114.40 despite heavilyfavored

American Pharoah winning.

Trifecta Payoffs

(Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs)

Average: $683.50

High: $3,912.80

(Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway’s Key, 2006)

Low: $35.40

(I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012)

Notable: Once since 2012 the trifecta paid 300-1 or more.

 

Failed Derby Winners

Year Horse Fin.

2010 Super Saver 8th

2006 Barbaro dnf (ANGELSWIN)

2001 Monarchos 6th

1991 Strike The Gold 6th

1984 Swale 7th

1983 Sunny’s Halo 6th

1970 Dust Commander 9th

1965 Lucky Debonair 7th

1962 Decidedly 8th

1923 Zev 12th

Winners Who Skipped Derby

(Since 1970)

Year Horse

2009 Rachel Alexandra

2006 Bernardini

2000 Red Bullet

1983 Deputed Testamony

1982 Aloma’s Ruler

1980 Codex

1972 Bee Bee Bee

Where Winners Were Bred

Wins State

96 Kentucky

8 Maryland

7 Florida

6 Pennsylvania

6 Virginia

Know This:

Well, Excluuuuude Me!

With apologies to comedian Steve Martin,

horses excluded from the Kentucky Derby

have had solid success at Pimlico. Tale

of Verve was runner-up here a year ago;

Hemingway’s Key was third in ’06; and

Rock Hard Ten was second in ’04.

 

Preakness Stakes History: The Last...

Kentucky Derby exacta to repeat 1-2 in Preakness:

I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012)

Kentucky Derby trifecta to repeat 1-2-3 in Preakness:

Affirmed-Alydar-Believe It (1978)

Gelding to win: Funny Cide (2003)

 

 

Race of Champions

(Preakness Winner was Champion

3-year-old in 13 of the last 15 years.)

Year Horse

2015 American Pharoah

2014 California Chrome

2012 I’ll Have Another

2010 Lookin At Lucky

2009 Rachel Alexandra (filly)

2008 Big Brown

2007 Curlin

2006 Bernardini

2005 Afleet Alex

2004 Smarty Jones

2003 Funny Cide

2002 War Emblem

2001 Point Given

 

Know This:

Fenced In

In the last 65 years, four starters from the

rail have won the Preakness – American

Pharoah (2015), Tabasco Cat (1994), Bally

Ache (1960) and Hill Prince (1950).

 

Nyquist Extras

Nyquist’s $4.95 million earned is the second-most ever exiting a Derby.

Smarty Jones’ $5 million Centennial Season Bonus from Oaklawn Park

pushed him to $6,763,155.

Nyquist’s 2:01.31 Kentucky Derby time rates 14th-best in history

and fastest since Funny Cide in 2003.

 

 

 

All Signs Point to Nyquist

by Jon White Santa Anita Morning Line Oddsmaker

________________________________________________________________________________

Analysis: Based on past results, the 2016 Preakness winner probably ran in

the Kentucky Derby. Only three of the last 32 Preakness winners (Red Bullet

in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009) did not start in the

Derby. Additionally, in the last 14 years the Kentucky Derby winner often has

gone on to take the Preakness--three of the last four years and seven of the last

14. That bodes well for undefeated NYQUIST, who extended his winning streak

to eight in the Run for the Roses.

Main Contenders: The main contenders are the first two finishers in the

Kentucky Derby, NYQUIST and EXAGGERATOR. These two talented colts,

well clear of the other 18 starters at the finish of the Kentucky Derby, now

have met four times, with NYQUIST winning each. Can EXAGGERATOR

finally defeat NYQUIST in the Preakness? It’s doubtful, though not impossible.

EXAGGERATOR was gaining on NYQUIST toward the end of the Derby, but

the shorter distance of the Preakness probably works in NYQUIST’S favor.

Perhaps the best hope for EXAGGERATOR and those trying to beat NYQUIST

in Baltimore is if coming bªck in just two weeks somehow is too much for

NYQUIST to handle. But even that seems unlikely because NYQUIST is going

into the Preakness relatively fresh, having made just two starts this year before

the Kentucky Derby.

Value Plays: COLLECTED won the Lexington Stakes by four-lengths at

Keeneland for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness

six times, including last year with Triple Crown conqueror American Pharoah.

STRADIVARI looked terrific when he won his initial 2016 start by 14 ½-lengths

at Keeneland, but I was not nearly as impressed by his subsequent workout

in company at Churchill Downs with Destin who then finished sixth in the

Kentucky Derby.

Wagering Strategies ($100):

• $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($100)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gem of an Exacta

by Dick Jerardi Daily Racing Form Columnist

 

Analysis: The Kentucky Derby had just a few speed horses and one of them,

NYQUIST, also happened to be the best horse. It was domination from the start,

NYQUIST looking like the winner every step of the trip. Accomplished Derby

winners rarely lose the Preakness and NYQUIST, with his perfect record, nearly

$5 million in earnings and five Grade 1 wins at five different tracks, is incredibly

accomplished. There is a chance the Preakness could have a few more speed

horses than the Derby, but NYQUIST is as versatile as he is fast so it is hard to

imagine an uncomfortable scenario. There is also this: NYQUIST is fast enough

to have been on or just off the lead in four sprint races, so even when it looks

like there is other speed, NYQUIST often outruns that speed from the start. This

horse’s style reminds me of Smarty Jones, another unbeaten Derby winner who

went on to win the Preakness by the biggest margin in the race’s history.

Main Contenders: NYQUIST was nine-lengths in front of EXAGGERATOR

at the quarter pole in the Derby, one and one-quarter lengths at the finish.

That sounds interesting unless you kept watching past the wire. NYQUIST’S

lead actually was extended during the gallop out. EXAGGERATOR was never

going by. Trailing in second and third behind NYQUIST in Kentucky were horses

that had combined to win the Santa Anita Derby, Delta Jackpot, Saratoga

Special, Louisiana Derby and Risen Star. The key word is trailing. NYQUIST has

finished in front of 79 horses so far, including poor EXAGGERATOR four times.

EXAGGERATOR is 4-for-6 in races that do not include NYQUIST. Several of

the newcomers have serious early speed and good speed figures. They would

include LAOBAN, STRADIVARI and UNCLE LINO.

Value Plays: Good luck trying to beat NYQUIST, but if you must try, you

could do worse than to fall on Lexington Stakes winner COLLECTED, an

improving colt that will need another big jump to win. DAZZLING GEM could

round out the exacta exiting a solid fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

Wagering Strategies ($100):

• $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over DAZZLING GEM ($100)

 

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

TRI that I think is very sound...on a $5tri I don't see how you don't at least get your money back, and if some longer horses get up, it could pay very nicely!

But first some more fun Preakness facts..

Longshot Winners

(15-1 Odds or Higher)

$2 Payoff Horse Year

$48.80 Master Derby 1975

$45.60 Coventry 1925

$40.70 Display 1926

$39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972

$32.80 Oxbow 2013

$32.00 Hindus 1900

$32.00 Don Enrique 1907

New Millennium Blowouts

Lengths Horse Year

11 1/2 Smarty Jones 2004

9 3/4 Funny Cide 2003

7 American Phoarah 2015

5 1/4 Big Brown 2008

5 1/4 Bernardini 2006

Baffert’s Baltimore Beauties

Year Preakness Winner

2015 American Pharoah

2010 Lookin At Lucky

2002 War Emblem

2001 Point Given

1998 Real Quiet

1997 Silver Charm

Know This:

Two Digits Too Much?

Only four horses have finished worse

than ninth in the Kentucky Derby and

rebounded to win the Preakness – most

recently Louis Quatorze in 1996 (16th).

More Than Half

Favorites are a strong 72-for-141 in the

Preakness; odds-on choices are now

18-for-28 after American Pharoah’s

popular score at 4-to-5.

 

 

 

 

Empty Net Goal for Nyquist

by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host

 

Analysis: As mentioned annually, runners contesting the Preakness off

favorable (or forgivable) Derby efforts should be the foundation of your wagers.

In the last 14 Preakness editions, 12 winners of the Woodlawn Vase arrived from

Louisville after positive results. Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009)

were exceptions. 2016 Preakness analysis starts with four from the Derby Hi-5,

assuming GUN RUNNER and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS make the trip.

Main Contenders: It appears this Preakness will feature more authentic

pace types than the Derby, but it’s been established that NYQUIST can adjust

to most conceivable scenarios. It’s hard to envision a development where any of

the Derby runners or newcomers deny him. GUN RUNNER ran the kind of third

at Churchill that reminds of Shackleford and Oxbow in their Derby runs ahead of

success in Baltimore. EXAGGERATOR was courageous in defeat two weeks ago

but the record of Derby runners up in Maryland is weak.

Value Plays: DAZZLING GEM and CHERRY WINE fell just short with bids

to make the Derby gate but have had extra time to prepare for the Preakness

and have worked well toward that end. Both own styles that should fit into the

race flow well. Talented, developing UNCLE LINO forced his way into the field

by following up his Santa Anita Derby third with a win in the California Chrome

Stakes, but will have to be better than LAOBAN, COLLECTED, STRADIVARI

and AWESOME SPEED on the front end.

Wagering Strategies ($100):

• $5 Trifecta Key: NYQUIST with GUN RUNNER, DAZZLING GEM,

CHERRY WINE, EXAGGERATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS ($100)

[Adam]

If I play the Preakness, it will be a small ticket. I'll key Nyquist on top because the Derby winner nearly always wins the Preakness

Nyquist (Guessing 1/2)

Uncle Lino (35-1), Dazzling Gem (15-1), Stradiveri (9-2)

Uncle Lino, Dazzling Gem, Stradiveri, Cherry Win (25-1)

 

 

I'll toss Exaggerator and Collected 

[Homebrewer]

I've seen speculation of 1-5 on Nyquist.

[Adam]

That would surprise me. But maybe. I couldn't believe he was 2-1 in the Derby