Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

Nyquist scheduled to resume training this morning.  So that's some good news.

 

Regarding Exaggerator.  I really don't know about him.  Was what we saw at the SA Derby a thing to come?  Or is he just a really really good mudder?  Because his two wins came on the mud.  And yet, as Adam said, his tactics the last race was totally different.  He's usually a stalker, not an absolute closer.  And if this new tactic is his true running style, it might be a good thing for the Derby when the field is 20 deep.  He can just sit back, save energy and ground around the first turn, then pick them off in the end.

[Adam]

His Tomlinson rating was by far the highest in the field. Mor Spirits was the lowest. He hates the mud. Exaggerator is a must use in slop.

Really hope we get some clarity after the Ark Derby.

[Adam]

Ark Derby tomorrow. For some of my futures (exactas) I hope Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews both qualify for the derby so I'll be rooting for them to hit the board. I'd also like Cupid to run well again. 

 

I won't be playing but if I were, I'd probably take a shot with Creator.

 

$20 W/P on Creator

$5 Exacta Creator, Cupid / Creator, Cupid, Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews

[Homebrewer]

American Pioneer..(Awesome Again - Makoma, by Malibu Moon)

Already won @ 1/16 at Oaklawn.

Late bloomer...be afraid to leave this one out.

[gotbeer]

American Pioneer..(Awesome Again - Makoma, by Malibu Moon)

Already won @ 1/16 at Oaklawn.

Late bloomer...be afraid to leave this one out.

 

He definitely has the odds right now.  14-1, 22 minutes out.

[Adam]

Bam! Send your $16.99 to My paypal

My $70 play returns nearly $700

Edited April 17, 2016 by Adam

[gotbeer]

Bam! Send your $16.99 to My paypal

My $70 play returns nearly $700

 

Where is my cut?

[gotbeer]

Points standing.

 

Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1 Gun Runner Steve Asmussen 151 $849,200

2 Nyquist Doug O'Neill 130 $3,289,000

3 Exaggerator Keith Desormeaux 126 $1,628,000

4 Outwork Todd Pletcher 120 $660,000

5 Brody's Cause Dale Romans 114 $1,100,000

6 Creator Steve Asmussen 110 $690,000

7 Lani Mikio Matsunaga 100 $1,300,119

8 Mor Spirit Bob Baffert 84 $616,800

9 Mohaymen Kiaran McLaughlin 80 $807,750

10 Danzig Candy Cliff Sise Jr. 60 $290,000

11 Destin Todd Pletcher 51 $338,000

12 Suddenbreakingnews Donnie Von Hemel 50 $637,000

13 Cupid Bob Baffert 50 $542,857

14 $+ Oscar Nominated Mike Maker 50 $321,360

15 Shagaf Chad Brown 50

$270,000 

16 Whitmore Ron Moquett 44 $400,000

17 Tom's Ready Dallas Stewart 44 $270,670

18 My Man Sam Chad Brown  40 $200,000 (Career: $251,200)

19 Majesto Gustavo Delgado 40 $190,000

20 Trojan Nation Paddy Gallagher 40 $190,000 (Career: $213,290)

 

 

Probably Alternates

21 Mo Tom Tom Amoss 32 $268,326

22 Fellowship Stanley Gold 32 $206,590

23 Adventist Leah Gyarmati 32 $155,000                                                

 

 

40 points to get in the derby this year. 

Edited April 17, 2016 by gotbeer

[Adam]

My gut says that Shagaf is out. There will be some other defections too. I think the 32s will get in

[Adam]

Ive got a few derby future exactas with Mor Spirit / Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews so it was awesome to see those latter two finish 2nd and 3rd to qualify!

[Adam]

Here is an early Derby Trifecta I'm likely to play:

Nyquist, Suddenbreakingnews //

Nyquist, Suddenbreakingnews, Mor Spirit, Brody's Cause //

Nyquist, Suddenbreakingnews, Mor Spirit, Brody's Cause, Fellowship, Creator, Mo Tom, Toms Ready

Edited April 17, 2016 by Adam

[Adam]

Songbird out of the Oaks.

[gotbeer]

Well, now who do you pick.  lol.  That was a sure thing. 

[Adam]

Makes the oaks derby double playable at least

[Homebrewer]

Nice hit Adam..

Just watched the race. 24.8 and 46.3 burned up Cupid and the pretenders.

Great patient rides by the top 3.  

[Adam]

Cupid was hurt. Out of the Derby. 

 

"Jay Privman reports Cupid is out of Derby, per Baffert. 

Mo Tom moves into Top 20.
He had an entrapped epiglottis.Will have surgery as soon as possible Preakness likely for next start"

 

Trading Cupid (12-1) for Mo Tom (25-1) is good for the pool! Mo Tom is definitely another live closer. I don't remember a Derby with so many horses that come from the clouds. 

[Homebrewer]

After the Ark, Cupid was going to be looking at the Preakness, hurt or not. It's really the smart move for him.

And...with 20 horses, the Derby isn't really a "closer" type of race. Too much traffic to get through.

Everybody will hang back hoping the speed fails, and a speed/stalking horse will run the race of it's life and forget to stop.

[Adam]

I won't bet him to win, but things are setting up very nicely for Nyquist, especially if Danzing Candy skips, which there are rumors of... 

[Homebrewer]

Yeah, Nyquist will be way too short.

This could be/should be an upset year. I wouldn't take anything short of 20-1.

Some of the closers might change it up and stalk...and for that matter, there could be so many horses changing tactics that the whole thing falls apart pace wise.

Might be wise to bet mostly jockey/trainer this year.

[Tank]

i won't pretend i understand any of what you guys are talking about, but it's been an interesting thread to read, to say the least. my lack of horse racing vocab keeps me from understanding about 90% of what you're saying. 

 

as far as the actual races go, i usually root for the brown horse.

[Homebrewer]

We'll have to speaking like a true pony degenerate in no time..

[gotbeer]

i won't pretend i understand any of what you guys are talking about, but it's been an interesting thread to read, to say the least. my lack of horse racing vocab keeps me from understanding about 90% of what you're saying. 

 

as far as the actual races go, i usually root for the brown horse.

 

We'll have you up to speed in no time.  But to start.

 

Betting on Horse Racing For Dummies

[gotbeer]

And once you get through that.

 

Horse Racing Terminology

[Tank]

i only know i should wager on Lucky Dan or Bluenote.

[Homebrewer]

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