Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

Likin' me some OM here.

 

20 w/p

1-3-6 ex/tri box 

[Homebrewer]

OM was cut off in the 1st turn and forced to take back and steady. Gary hand rode him after that. I hope Stevens takes it to the Stewards.

 

OK..Inquiry....but not involving the 1...

[Homebrewer]

I suck today.

My 1-3-6 worked out real well

 

1 bumped, spun out, pulled up, never went on

 

3-6 play demolition derby bashing each other around, and get involved in an inquiry

Edited March 12, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

I've got a shit ton of seconds today. I don't bet place. 

[Adam]

Welp, I'm kinda down to my late pick 4 and some prayers. My remaining bets...

 

Pick 4: 3,7,11,12 / 1,3,8 / 5,6,8 / 9

 

Race 8: $10 Win #3 ; $1 Exacta 3,12/3,7,11,12

Race 9: $1 Super 3/1/8/2,5

Race 10: $10 Win #6 ; $10 Exacta 5/8

Race 11: $5 Exacta 9/5

Edited March 12, 2016 by Adam

[Adam]

I don't know how anyone could have that 2

[gotbeer]

I don't know how anyone could have that 2

 

I did. 

 

Some weird ass races I hit today.  Unfortunately, I was a cheap ass like usual. 

 

Started at Gulfstream race 5.  Was playing very conservative today, so minimal win bets.  Had a WS for $1 on the 7.  He won on a late late charge at 40-1.  Miler, cutting down to 6 F with a positive last 3 beyer progression.  Blind squirrel finds the acorn.

 

That sets me up for Santa Anita.

 

Airball first race.  Second race, chalk, so had a double that I missed to the third.  Fourth race, missed, came in 3rd.  So now my misses are getting into my head and I get even tighter.

 

fifth race, again third.

 

Sixth race.  2 was my top pick.  2 was my buddies top pick.  So do we load up.  NO.  And end up only with a $2 win on him.  F me.

 

Seventh race.  Of course I put my last $5 side bet on Uncle Lino.  So now I'm just ass clenched.

 

Eighth race.  Airball.  Same with the ninth.

 

Tenth.  I'm looking at the board.  Melatonin, 15-1.  Looking at it closer.  And that first off a layoff with a 97 beyer really stands out to me.  Just odds wise, couldn't pass it up.  So of course only put $2 to win on him. 

 

Eleventh.  Man hindsite on this one.  It's approaching St Patricks day.  And who comes in first, second, third.  3 Irish horses.  And to make it worse.  First and Second.  Trainer Callahan and Gallager.  And I had the third place horse as my top pick. 

 

sigh.  So I hit a 40-1, 15-1, and 6-1, and yet still managed to lose.  I just really need to pick one horse a race, and let the cards fall.  Instead of chasing these exotics and multiple horses a race. 

[Adam]

GB, you can't lose money when you have a 40-1, 15-1 and a 6-1. You really shouldn't lose money if you have a 6-1 shot hit unless you're just throwing darts.

What was your plan going into the day?

Most of my day was wrapped up in Outwork. There should always be one opinion that guarantees a profit if it hits.

[Adam]

I'll be there for SA derby day GB

[gotbeer]

I'll be there for SA derby day GB

 

Planning on being there also.  Hopefully the kid cooperates this time. 

 

As for my betting.  Was going to do just wins, maybe wps.  Then I hit gulfstream, and started playing doubles and exactas.  The big problem was my big side bets of $5 wins never came in in the 3rd 4th and 5th.  So saved my last $5 for Lino instead of betting the 6th.  Plus I missed all the other races at Gulfstream, and everything at Golden Gate. 

[Adam]

Gotcha. I love doubles too. Had inclusive decision (10 in race 3) hit if have had a good day too. He and Outwork were my money makers and they both got 2nd in game efforts. I didn't cash all day. Oh well.

[Adam]

I'm telling you guys you should be playing the rainbow 6 every day until mandatory payout day. All the whales are putting grips in the pot to try and take it down. Even if you chalk out it'll pay value

[Homebrewer]

Thursday, March 17

Santa Anita Park

$548,670

Carryover for Pick 6

[Adam]

The Rebel was awesome on Saturday. It was the only race I watched all weekend. Cupid (Baffert) went fast, pulled away, got caught, fought back and won easy.

 

 

 

I've had Whitmore, who finished 2nd, on my Derby list and he looks good too. Ran 4 wide pretty much throughout, then made a pretty wide move on the turn before catching Cupid.  He took the lead in the Southwest too before finishing 2nd. I don't think he did anything wrong in either race. 

[Homebrewer]

Baffert not only has Cupid, who checks in at No. 3 in the AP's latest Run to the Roses Top 10 list of Derby contenders - behind undefeated leaders Nyquist and Mohaymen - he also trains No. 5 Mor Spirit.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/derby-top-10-whats-not-love-cupid-163247873--rah.html

[Adam]

Mor Spirit will probably be my derby bet if he's double digit odds. I think 10F is going to be perfect for him. 

[Adam]

I wouldn't sleep on Nyquist either. 

 

They question his ability to get the distance, but man, look how wide he went (#13) in the Juvenille.

 

[Homebrewer]

Looks like we're building up to another great TC season, hard to believe it's been almost a year already.

[Adam]

Rainbow 6! Mandatory payout day on Sat. 

[Homebrewer]

Rainbow 6! Mandatory payout day on Sat.

4 MIL is going to attract a lot of wiseguy action.

Meanwhile..

Race 9 – Dubai World Cup (Gr I) - $10,000,000 – 1 1/4 Miles

The culminating race of the day is the $10M World Cup, and there are Americans throughout the entries. #11 CALIFORNIA CHROME won the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, while #9 FROSTED is a 4-time winner that was dominant in his Dubai prep. #1 KEEN ICE is the only horse to beat American Pharoah as a three-year-old, when he won the Grade 1 Travers. #2 MSHAWISH has won two straight for Todd Pletcher and attracted world-class jockey, Frankie Dettori. And #10 HOPPERTUNITY is a hard-tryer that has won 5-of-18, including the Grade 1 Clark Handicap in 2014. All stand a big chance, but my allegiance is with FROSTED. I simply loved his prep at Meydan and think he has the right level of class and talent. He doesn’t need the lead, but I expect William Buick to guide him across the wire first, capping a huge day for him and topping an all-American Superfecta.

1. #9 Frosted

2. #2 Mshawish

3. #10 Hoppertunity

4. #11 California Chrome

What a loaded race! Not sure what I think about it though...Chrome travels well, he would be my sentimental pick so my judgment is clearly clouded.

[Adam]

The World Cup is tough. I'm a Chromie so I will pass on betting and pull hard. If I were to bet I'd take Msawish at 7-1 or better or Hopportunity at 20-1 or better. 

[Homebrewer]

I would find it very hard to bet against Chrome myself.

Maybe a tri box would be the way to go, but even then, as you say, it's tough.

[Adam]

I don't like Frosted to win. I don't think he likes to battle in the stretch and I just don't see him out-gaming anyone. 

 

I think the odds will look something like:

 

Chrome: 4-5

Frosted: 3-1

Msawwish: 9-2

Keen Ice: 15-1

Hopportunity: 20-1 

Et Al... 30-1+

[gotbeer]

BTW.  I think it's on at 10 AM on Saturday.  On HRTV, or TVG2, or whatever. 

 

What I don't like about Chrome is he usually wilts on the big stage.  Outside of his 3 year old campaign, he wins when no one is runnning against him.  He has shooters this time. 

 

Hopefully he wins.  But f'er has burned me enough that I don't trust him.

[gotbeer]

I'm going to chase the money for the big race.

 

5 Special Fighter

won last on super saturday at Meydan. 

 

8 Hokko Tarumae

won a 861k race last out.  layoff is a concern.