Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

You should come out to the track today Adam.  Got a few no shows in my group in Frontrunner at Santa Anita.

[Adam]

I wish. Pops birthday. Btw I got my derby preps mixed up. Flexibility was my toss in the Whithers. Was a good toss too. Finished 4th at 1-2

[gotbeer]

So tell me if this is creepy or not. 

 

I meet up with a friend at the track.  No Adam, this one you have not met.

 

So she goes to Starbucks after the race.  And who is there, but Rafael and F. Hernandez.  They really get talking, since well, someone actually recognized them at the track.

 

Now it seems, Rafael has a thing for my friends 16 year old daughter.  Texting her constantly.  And.....giving her tips.

 

No, not that tip.  Adam you know. 

 

So of course, being me.  I saw her at the track after hearing this on saturday, and well, I went all out.  Like, hey at least you have a prom date.  And don't sign a prenup, 50% in CA. Make sure he gets a limo.  Rafael also won the last race on Saturday.  Which they were supposed to meet again after the race.  So I said, hey he is buying dinner for you two right?  She was supposed to send me any tips from Rafael, which were overall correct for Saturday, on Sunday.  Of course nothing came, but he did crap also. 

 

Does that make me an even more evil person for being me?  Because, I'm having to much fun harassing both of them.

[Lou]

No, it makes you an even more evil person for not telling Rapael to leave the 16 yr old girl alone or he's going to be registering as a sex offender

[Adam]

I think GB had a lot to drink yesterday. 

 

I can't imagine a jockey doing too well in the joint. 

 

Anywho... Some good races over the weekend. 9-2 on Msawish in the Donn was a complete gift. Mor Spirit looks ****ing stellar. Still hasn't been asked. Songbird is a freak. Cool to see Hopportunity continue to cash checks.

 

The Dubai World Cup is usually a couple 2nd tier American Horses and a bunch of Euros.

 

This year, it looks like a BC Classic field. Chrome, Frosted, Msawish, Effinex, Keen Ice, Hopportunity... 

[Homebrewer]

Chrome won easy in a tune up for the Dubai WC..

http://news.yahoo.com/california-chrome-star-2014-cruises-win-dubai-182220905.html


"And that next race would be the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 26."

 

"Possibles" Field here:

http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2016_Dubai_World_Cup#

[Homebrewer]

Still gives me goose bumps watching the move at the 1/4 pole

[Adam]

I hope Chrome has a big year. So far so good. A win in the world cup and he'll be the richest American horse ever. Pretty nice, especially since he originally cost just a $2500 breeding fee. 

 

I really hope he checks all the boxes this year. It would be awesome to see him win the BC Classic in person and go out in style.

 

I had a nice little Friday last week taking down the late double and pick 4 at Gulstream. Was 5/6 in the Pick 6 too. Got some ammo heading into this weekend. 

[Homebrewer]

Nice hit Adam.

I've been 5 of 6 twice in my long and storied career as a degenerate.

And I agree completely about Chrome...still my favorite horse since Alysheba.

 

I have the win ticket you sent me when he was going for the TC in 14, framed with some pics signed by Art Sherman. 

Hoping to add to that this year.

Edited March 1, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

This year's prep season is way different from last year so far. Lots of horses winning all over the place. Last year, it was Dortmund in CA, AP in Arkansas, International Star in LA, Upstart/Frosted in FL and El Kabier/Frosted in NY.

 

This year's crop is not as flashy and dominant, but it appears to be deeper. Add to that, you've got horses going unconventional routes. Nyquist has enough points from his 2 YO season to qualify for the Derby (30) that his only 3 YO prep is going to be the FL Derby. Exaggerator hasn't prepped yet as a 3 YO. Both of those CA horses seem like they're going to have trouble getting 10 Furlongs.

 

Mohayman is getting all the press, but he's run the same speed figs three races in a row. He owns FL but I don't know that it translates moving forward. I want to see horses improving. He's good but not improving by most metrics. 

 

http://www.drf.com/road

[gotbeer]

Is it me.  Or does it seem like there are a lot of CA horses that look good for the Derby?  Almost to the point that they will be shipping out to get points instead of fighting over the Santa Anita Derby points. 

 

And the biggest wildcard is Songbird.  They keep saying oaks only.  But if she qualifies for the oaks, I'd throw her into the Santa Anita Derby just to keep options open.  If she loses, goes to the oaks.  If she wins, then there are some decisions to be made.

[Adam]

Songbird and Cathryn Sophia would both be in the top 4 betting choices for the derby, but the owners have emphatically said Songbird will not go to the Derby. 

 

I don't think there's much shot in CA other than Mor Spirit and Nyquist. I prefer Mor Spirit and it looks like he'll be 3rd choice or higher. (7-1 +)

 

Exaggerator has no shot in the Derby, though he'll probably qualify. That said, 3 YOs can improve like crazy race to race. The San Felipe is going to be outstanding if everyone shows. 

 

Mor Spirit

Exaggerator

Smokey Image 

Danzing Candy

Uncle Lino

 

 

I'm sure there will be others too. 

[gotbeer]

I put a bet on Smokey Image while in Vegas this weekend.  Think I got 40-1 on him.  I really like him, and think he will do well.  My buddy has a bunch of bets already in from the beginning on various horses including Nyquest, Mohaymen at mid double digit odds.

[Adam]

You guys should be throwing a few bucks into the Rainbow Pick 6 at Gulfstream. It's gonna be worth $2.5 Million + today if there's a single winner. I think I have enough prices to make it possible. 

[Homebrewer]

Some Gulfstream Insider stuff for you guys...big weekend there.

 

 

Xpressbet Race of the Week

G2 GULFSTREAM PARK HANDICAP

Saturday, February 27, 2016

By Jeremy Plonk, Horse Player NOW

The Lead:

The hits continue at Gulfstream Park as yet another sensational Saturday stakes card is topped by the $500,000 G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. Top milers converge with a quartet of trainees from the Todd Pletcher barn running uncoupled in the field of seven. Pletcher’s three wins in this race all-time include back-to-back recent scores with Discreet Dancer (2013) and Palace Malice (2014).

Field Depth:

ITSAKNOCKOUT won last year’s G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes via disqualification. VALID is a G3 winner, but recently second in the G1 Donn Handicap at the meet. BLOFELD won a pair of G2 stakes during his juvenile season. Listed stakes winner STANFORD is G2-placed, while GRAND SHORES is a listed winner and G3-placed. There’s little separating most of these on class technically, but most of VALID’s races have come in open races while the others have had more success in age-restricted stakes.

Pace:

From the rail, STANFORD could show some early foot as needed. But ANCHOR DOWN and VALID appear most likely to set the tone in what appears to be a very moderate pace for this distance and class level. Deep closers could be vulnerable to the pace.

Our Eyes:

Pletcher's fearsome foursome includes three who basically look like the same horse on paper. STANFORD, ITSAKNOCKOUT and BLOFELD all are 4-year-olds who had some modest success in the array of sophomore races a year ago. None were standouts in that division and each must prove himself capable now that the age restrictions have been lifted for their competition. So even though ANCHOR down doesn't have the black type on his resume that his younger stablemates has, the 5-year-old has at least swam the waters.

ITSAKNOCKOUT appears the strongest of the Pletcher runners to this eye given his 2-for-2 record in miles at Gulfstream Park. His fourth in the G1 Donn Handicap going 9 furlong last time out showed he won't be overmatched against elders, including VALID, who bested him by 1-1/4 lengths when the Donn runner-up. STANFORD has run well in the second-off-the-layoff portion of his form cycle in the past, but also tends to flatten out a bit in the lane and not show the killer instinct.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: VALID is 20-for-35 in the exacta lifetime, including 6 of his last 7 attempts -- plus, the pace doesn't look daunting.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: ANCHOR DOWN could be the forgotten Pletcher.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $90 exacta VALID over ITSAKNOCKOUT, as well as a $10 backup ITSAKNOCKOUT over VALID.

March 3, 2016 | By Dustin Fabian

Saturday’s races from Gulfstream Park are once again littered with great graded stakes events, headlined by the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. Here are my picks.

Race 5 (1:56PM ET) – Very One Stakes (Gr III; 150k)

The blinkers go on Chad Brown’s #1 DACITA, who won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa last summer before finishing a non-threatening ninth, beaten 9 ¼-lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Not sure what went wrong that day, but with Chad Brown and Javier Castellano back at it again, this daughter of Scat Daddy has to be rated with a big chance of winning. Brown’s other entrants are another Chilean-bred, #3 GUAPAZA, who makes her first start in the States and the German-bred, #6 OLORDA, who has been disappointing in three US starts. Of the three Brown entrants, DACITA is the pick. But I’ll also use #2 QUIET KITTEN, who has a huge pace advantage over this group. She figures to have the opportunity to set an easy lead, so while she lacks the class of the graded stakes performers, she has a nose for the wire and will outrun her odds.

1. Dacita (Chi)

2. Quiet Kitten

3. Guapaza (Chi)

Race 11 (4:58PM ET) – Gulfstream Park Handicap (Gr II; 500k)

I thought #1 STANFORD ran a big race off the pine for Todd Pletcher last out, but he’s saddled with an unenviable post today, which could make Javier Castellano’s job of carving out a good trip more difficult. His stablemate, #2 ITSAKNOCKOUT, drew just to his outside and might be the most logical of the Pletcher horses. He’s a perfect 2-for-2 going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream and was most recently fourth, beaten 3 ¼-lengths, in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. ITSAKNOCKOUT’s resume gets a little sketchy going two turns (he’s never crossed the wire first in four tries), so today’s distance and trip seem to be right up his alley. It’s virtually impossible to overlook #5 VALID, who simply continues to outrun expectations for Marcus Vitali and Crossed Sabres Farm. He has 11 wins in 35 career starts and is 6-for-13 at Gulfstream. He finished second last out in the Donn, was second in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope to Donn winner, Mshawish, and finished third in this race, beaten just one-length, by Honor Code and Private Zone. He drew well and is the pick to win this time around. Pletcher’s other two horses - #4 BLOFELD and #7 ANCHOR DOWN – don’t appear to be on this level, so I’m going to focus my wagers on the favorites here.

1. Valid

2. Itsaknockout

3. Stanford

Race 12 (5:30PM ET) – Mac Diarmida Stakes (Gr II; 200k)

This is a really nice field of turf marathoners, but I think my allegiance needs to go to #5 MR MAYBE, who has been simply untouchable since moving to the barn of Chad Brown. He won the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap by 4 ¼-lengths last November and seems to be training well for his return to the races. He’ll be ridden by Javier Castellano, who wins at a remarkable 37% clip with Brown at Gulfstream, and appears to love racing at this distance. #6 TWILIGHT ECLIPSE has been around forever, but I’m having a hard time backing him off the four-month layoff and the fact that he won just 1-of-8 starts last year. He gets another new jockey, Luis Saez, but he just appears content to settle for minor prizes at this point in his career. The same is true for #1 KAIGUN, who has dropped eight straight decisions and hasn’t won since 2014. #2 GRAND TITO is a total unknown at this distance, but I was blown away by his authoritative return to the races off the layoff and he has a favorable record at Gulfstream. I’m not discounting him. And while I was completely underwhelmed #4 DA BIG HOSS’s only local start – a third place finish in the Grade 3 W.L. McKnight – he won big at Sam Houston in January and has won 4-of-6 since being claimed by Mike Maker.

1. Mr Maybe

2. Grand Tito

3. Da Big Hoss

[Adam]

Valid is not a 9F horse. He may still get there but there's really no way to put him on top at a lowish price. 

[Homebrewer]

I'm inclined to agree with that, and the guy who has him underneath (an all in) in the exacta.

[Adam]

I've not looked at the PPs so I'm not sure who I'd play. I don't like Itsaknockout. Stanford is interesting at 6-1 or better. If he can get the lead or sit just off Valid I think he has better pedigree for distance. 

[Adam]

Well shit I thought the GS Handicap was a 9F race. It's a one turn mile. Changes everything.

Valid will be tough.

I'll be playing the Gotham - probably a double with Sunny Ridge, Adeventist and Rally Cry. Shagaf looks like a bad favorite.

[Homebrewer]

Valid finished 3rd, Blofeld was a 10-1 winner and Itsaknockout was an OM 5th.

Pletcher fix.

 

Your bad favorite won the Gotham.

[Adam]

Yep. Valid would have won had he not been interfered with. The Gotham was a shit race. Want no one out of that race moving forward.

My day was saved somewhat by the songbird tri. Had it a few times.

[gotbeer]

Songbird.  I wish they would give her a shot in the Santa Anita Derby.  Worse case, she loses and runs in the Kentucky Oaks.  Another workout win.

[Adam]

She wouldn't lose lol. Best horse in any division. She will run in the Preakness I think.

GB I'll be out there next Sat.

Gary Sherlocks son is a colleague of mine. If Uncle Lino wins I'll be in the winner circle! Haha

[gotbeer]

I'll be there.  Going to try and get a table in the frontrunner. 

 

Can I get in the picture?  lol

[Adam]

I don't see why not