Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Actually Adam, those were the numbers from the Preakness feed.  lol

 

I know...

[gotbeer]

Your daily losing tickets for the preakness.  

 

this is who I initially am picking.  

 

In order

1 American Pharoah

8 Firing Line

6 Bodhisattva

7/2 Diving Rod and Dortmund

4 Danzig Moon

5 Tale of Verve

3 Mr. Z

 

Why Dortmund so low.  Look at the Derby.  He was fading fast, and barely held on to 3rd.  I am going on the angle that that took a lot out of him.

 

Bets.

Win/Place/Show $2

6 $6

 

Exacta $1

1/8 Box $2

1/6 Box $2

 

Trifecta $0.50

1 with 8/6 with 8/6/2/7 $3

8/6 with 1 with 8/6/2/7 $3

 

Superfecta $0.10

1 with 8/6 with 8/6/2/7 with All $2.40

8/6 with 1 with 8/6/2/7 with All $2.40

1 with 8/6 with All with 8/6/2/7 $2.40

Edited May 15, 2015 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

Oh, and I like the late pick 4 starting race 11.  

 

race 11

2 Ageless

 

Race 12

14 Talk Show Man

13 War Correspondent

4 Airpeka

1 Grand Tito

 

Race 13

1 American Pharoah

8 Firing Line

6 Bodhisvitta

 

Race 14

2 Old Upstart

 

You could single Pharoah

[Adam]

Hit the tri in the last race and alive to the 5,7,8 in pick 3. 7 would be nice

[Adam]

Closed out the day with a modest pick 3.

 

Total for day $25 in

 

$67 returned

 

BOOM! lol

Edited May 15, 2015 by Adam

[gotbeer]

nice Adam.  My buddy texted me and said he had three horses in the Black Eyed Susan double to the Preakness.  One of the three was the longshot.  Not sure how many he has for the Preakness, but even with Pharoah, the payout is nice.

[Adam]

I've been shut out today so far.

I'm on divining rod for my win bet

Played some supers with AP keyed on top

[gotbeer]

Only American Pharoah himself can lose the Triple Crown.  Because right now, I don't see how he can lose it.  

[Adam]

Materiality and Frosted will have something to say about it. I'd take 4/5 on the field

[gotbeer]

The Met Mile that I believe is run on the same day as the Belmont looks absolutely fantastic.  

 

Early probables.

Private Zone

Bayern

Tonalist

Honor Code

Wicked Strong

Social Inclusion

Noble Moon

Kobe's Back

Sahara Sky

Competitive Edge

Tamarzuk

 

I am a big Sahara Sky fan, and the odds he's is going to get is going to be juicy.  Even Kobe's Back.  

[Adam]

The Met Mile that I believe is run on the same day as the Belmont looks absolutely fantastic.  

 

Early probables.

Private Zone

Bayern

Tonalist

Honor Code

Wicked Strong

Social Inclusion

Noble Moon

Kobe's Back

Sahara Sky

Competitive Edge

Tamarzuk

 

I am a big Sahara Sky fan, and the odds he's is going to get is going to be juicy.  Even Kobe's Back.  

 

The card on Belmont Stakes day is one of the best of the year usually and almost always saltier than Derby or Preakness day. Might get decent prices on both Bayern and Honor Code as they both tanked on Derby day. I think they both ran last. haha. I'll probably play Private Zone and Tonalist on my tickets... 

[Stradling]

I am not a horse race fan, mainly because I have only been once, but I am shocked that you guys aren't talking about Hollywood Park being blown up this morning

[Adam]

I am not a horse race fan, mainly because I have only been once, but I am shocked that you guys aren't talking about Hollywood Park being blown up this morning

 

Overdue. Sorry, GB I know you were pretty close to it. I loved playing Hollywood because I always did well there, especially on the synth, but it was a dump and I never would have wanted to walk out of there after a big day. 

 

Strad, Hollywood closed a while ago so we've already talked about it.

 

Back to the Belmont!

 

More defections today, though I don't think anyone has left, who had a chance.

 

Also, the Met Mile was crushed by a couple defections too. Both should still be good races though.

[gotbeer]

I am not a horse race fan, mainly because I have only been once, but I am shocked that you guys aren't talking about Hollywood Park being blown up this morning

 

Saw the implosion of it on the video.  

 

It hit me more when they showed an arial of the place, and the track was gone.  

 

I hope that place goes through many many bankruptcies and lootings.

[Lou]

American Pharoah  gets #5 post and is at 3/5

[Lou]

Frosted #6 and opens as 2nd favorite @ 5/1

[Tank]

Frosted? is that the horse owned by juan rivera?

[Angel Oracle]

I would not be surprised at all if Materiality or Frosted won the Belmont, what with their distance experience and moving up at the end of the Derby.

AP has rarely, if ever, travelled the Belmont distance.

[Lou]

Triple Crown on the line and nary a peep

[Tank]

we're worried about creflo dollar getting his jet and all the musings of peyts' mom. these are busy days, my friend.

[gotbeer]

This is what I'm seeing about the big race tomorrow.

 

1 Mubtaahij  I really like this horse.  Have since the derby, and the UAE derby.  He gets a small field like the UAE derby.  He gets speed to run at.  He is again my dark horse to win.

2 Tale of Verve  Good showing last race, but still 7 length back, in the slop.  Only win was a maiden 58k, and it took him 5 tries to break it.  I don't think he finishes in the top 4.

3 Madefromlucky.  He's getting a lot of press about being an upset horse.  Taking the smilar path as past upset horses and winning the Peter Pan.  But 2 and 3 races ago, went against AP, and AP dusted him by 9 and 6 1/4 lengths.  Maybe in the exotics in 4th place.

4 Frammento Won his maiden second time out.  Then hasn't come close to winning for the next 6 races.  Just don't see it.

6 Frosted  The wood was a good showing.  He was coming on in the Derby, or was he passing tired horses?  Watching the Derby, just didn't think he was making ground on AP.  He will get short odds, but I put him in the 3rd area.

7 Keen Ice Won his maiden second out.  Then closest after that was a third by 2 3/4 lengths in 6 tries.  He seems more like a stakes horse than a graded stakes horse.

8 Materiality  My other pick for a longshot.  But watching the Derby, he didn't really close on AP.  He was shuffled back early, so that is an excuse for him.  

 

5 AP  After saying all that, his race to lose.  

 

I have it as

Exacta $1

5 with 18  $2

18 with 1856 $6

 

Trifecta  $0.50

5 with 18 with 1863  $3

18 with 5618 $6

 

Super $0.10

5 with 18 with 1863 with all $3

18 with 185 with 56318 with all $6

Edited June 5, 2015 by gotbeer

[Adam]

Race 8 - Just A Game

 

#7 J Wonder looks like the best value in the race. She should improve in the 3rd after the layoff. Her previous two were troubled trips. Should be a super nice price. #4 Coffee Clique is solid and won this race last year. #8 Ball Dancing will be a deserving favorite. #9 Tepin could get loose on the lead again, but I'm hoping another one will go with her - hopefully #3 Discreet Marq.

 

$1 exacta 4,7/4,7,8

 

Race 9 - Met Mile

 

This is the race of the year thus far, even without Shared Belief or California Chrome. That said, I'll land on the favorite, #4 Tonalist. I think Tonalist is the best of the healthy older horses and the pace should set up perfectly for him. #1 Private Zone will smack Bayern in the face and put him to bed. But, I don't think he'll have enough in the tank to finish the job. The most interesting horse to me is #5 Tamarkuz. 1st start in the US. McLaughlin is 4 for 5 this year with these types. He's almost a millionaire. I will definitely include him underneath and on multis.

 

$5 exacta 4/1,5

 

Race 10 - The Manhatten

 

#5 Big Blue Kitten is the most consistent performer in a group of very good horses. #1 Hyper presents the best value. I think he got a lot out of his last and could be the upsetter. #2 Twilight Eclipse is a board-hitter almost every time.

 

$3 Exacta 1,5/1,2,5

 

Race 11 - The Belmont

 

All about pace. I'm betting that Pletcher is a big enough dick that he'll be willing to burn Materiality on the front to prevent a triple crown. I think Materiality and AP battle for 3/4s. AP goes on and Materiality dies a slow death, but not before taking enough out of AP. #1 Mubtahiij and #6 Frosted should be the benefactors of a pace meltdown and get first jump on the leaders. I'll take the bigger price - Mubtahiij has been training well and is bred to go a long way. I'll include Frammento as a bomb.

 

$10 Exacta 1/4,6

$10 Exacta 5/1,6

 

$0.50 PK 4 (Race 8 - 11)

4,7,8

4

1,5

1,5,6

[gotbeer]

Alright Adam, if you are going to make me look at a pick 4.

 

Race 8

9 Tepin.  Always love an improving speed figure line.  He seems trained for this race.

3 Discreet Marq.  Because Marq is in the name.  That and he's 8/5/1/1 on Belmont.  3 for 4 the last times on this track.  

My hope is these two hook up and just run away.

 

Race 9

4 Tonalist  Should run away with this.

Exotics

5 Tamarkuz  Winner of the last 4.  Irad on him.  First time Lasix a very dangerous angle.  Might include him as a LS with Tonalist

9 Honor Code  I think this horse will finish in the money.  Closer so should end well.

10 Kobe's Back  Again closer.  Distance is the big question.  But he's been well rested.

 

Race 10

3 Finnegans Wake.  Just a consistent closing horse.  Will give it his all

6 Legendary  Pure longshot.  But he seems to wake up on this course winning all three races he's raced.

 

Race 11

5 AP

1 Mubjahiij 

 

Pick 4 $0.50

93 with 4 with 3 with 51 $2  hmm.  might go x5

 

Deep $0.50

93 with 45 with 36 with 51 $8  

 

Baller $0.50 with Adams picks

93478 with 45 with 1536 with 156  $60 

[gotbeer]

Also, may put a cold tri down in race 3.  

 

3 competitive edge should just pass up cinco charlie and win

 

5 cinco charley should have enough to finish second

 

2 March  will be coming late, but I think too much to do.

 

If I get to the track on time, may put $10 straight, and hope to make it a daymaker.

[Adam]

Re: Finnegan's Wake - Closers have done jack shit on the Belmont Turf all meet. It is almost comical how bad they've been