Stock Market: The Thread

[fan_since79]

26 minutes ago, Tank said:

what? how are those things even remotely related?

ESPN and NY Times revenue declining with Yankees missing?

 

[fan_since79]

Amazon up 12% today as they destroyed earnings.

$1,100 a share, and that might be cheap going forward.

 

[fan_since79]

24,000 is in sight for the Dow, currently at 23,909.

Techs are down though.

Economy continuing to grow at a very good pace, best in three years.

 

[Brandon]

[fan_since79]

24,000 has come and gone! 

Good times.

 

[fan_since79]

The Dow had a big and sudden drop this morning right after the Flynn news, but is now down only 43 points.

 

Edited December 1, 2017 by fan_since79

[cez]

i just maxed out my ira contribution for the year

using the next couple of weeks of craziness to make some choices about where to invest

mostly index funds

bought another amazon share today

i'm new to all of this

[fan_since79]

24,500 has come and gone.

I copied this analysis from Townhall.com. Could this be overly optimistic? Any thoughts?

 

excerpt: Most fundamentally stock market gains have been paid for with profits growth. Currently, the S&P500 is trading at about 25-times earnings—just about what it was a year ago and roughly in line with its 25-year average.

Analysts are forecasting earnings growth exceeding 10% over the next three quarters. That puts the 1-year forward P-E ratio at only about 18 and makes another jump in stock prices wholly possible, especially if the Senate and House can agree on a tax bill with a significant cut in corporate rates.

Importantly, inflation remains in check. Federal Reserve Chairman designate Powell is expected to continue Chairman Yellen’s policy of slowly raising interest rates and shrinking the Fed balance.

Even with somewhat higher interest rates, the P-E at 25 implies a rate of return on stockholder invested capital of 4% on shareholder equity, and investors can’t get anywhere near that on long-term Treasuries or CDs.

Over the last 25 years, the return on the S&P 500 has averaged 11% but long-term Treasuries only about 3%. With double digit gains forecasted for earnings, the fundamentals support stock performance relative to bonds in line with those metrics—perhaps a lot better.

[Tank]

this is not a strong area for me so a lot of the info doesn't process well for me. what i know is that the market goes through a self-correction every so often and prices drop, sometimes more than expected or at a time not anticipated. i hope this current rise is something we can all ride for a good long while, but i'm ever conscious of a drop coming when least expected.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

4 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

Over the last 25 years, the return on the S&P 500 has averaged 11% but long-term Treasuries only about 3%. With double digit gains forecasted for earnings, the fundamentals support stock performance relative to bonds in line with those metrics—perhaps a lot better.

Over any 30 year period of the S&P 500 annualized returns with dividends reinvested are ~11% and this is even true for 66-96 while returns were flat from 66-81.  Hopefully most regular investors are investing with the long term in mind but statistics tell us that a lot of people invest with their emotions and sell on dips while buying back in higher.  Whenever there's a ridiculous amount of optimism or fear we're bound for a correction but set your plan and stick with it.  

[mrwicked]

53 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Over any 30 year period of the S&P 500 annualized returns with dividends reinvested are ~11% and this is even true for 66-96 while returns were flat from 66-81.  Hopefully most regular investors are investing with the long term in mind but statistics tell us that a lot of people invest with their emotions and sell on dips while buying back in higher.  Whenever there's a ridiculous amount of optimism or fear we're bound for a correction but set your plan and stick with it.  

bless those people!

[mp170.6]

On 12/1/2017 at 7:03 PM, GOPSnowflakesHateCezero said:

i just maxed out my ira contribution for the year

using the next couple of weeks of craziness to make some choices about where to invest

mostly index funds

bought another amazon share today

i'm new to all of this

I would park my money with Vanguard mutual funds and let them manage it for you.  Their fee is 0.3% of your portfolio per year.

Really like them.

[cez]

I've maxed out my IRA for the past 5 years in Vanguard index funds. I had just never traded for stock with my IRA contributions. 

[fan_since79]

Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all hit record highs today.

Nasdaq over 7,000 and S&P hit 2,700. Dow is only 78 points away from 25,000.

Happy New Year of investing!

 

[Angel Oracle]

If tradition sticks, the upward movement will last through April, and then a lull into the autumn.

[fan_since79]

The Dow just blew through 25,000.

Up 170 points so far today.

An amazing run that may have a lot more room to go.

 

[Jay]

crazy.

It's been a great year for stocks.

[Jay]

On 3/27/2017 at 5:50 PM, aznhockeyguy said:

Trump train derailing?  8th straight day of declines.  Thinking of selling all my equities for both my IRA and my cash heavy reserve and sit out of the market for a while.

How did that work out for you?

[fan_since79]

My Mom sold her Google stock in early November on the advice of her broker, who should know better. It's up 11% in the last three months.

She still made a lot of money on it though, having bought in at $250 and change. Her Amazon stock, which she will hold on to,  is up 322% since she purchased shares in 2013 at $400 and change. The high today so far is $1,299.

Dow 30,000 before 2020?? Not a crazy thought by any means.

 

 

 

 

[Brandon]

21 hours ago, Jay said:

How did that work out for you?

lol

[Blarg]

How the stock market respond to "shit hole" comments? Any bump up or down? 

[aznhockeyguy]

22 hours ago, Jay said:

How did that work out for you?

Good thing I didn't. 

[Angel Oracle]

DOW is up 2.5% in the past week+. 

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Blarg said:

How the stock market respond to "shit hole" comments? Any bump up or down? 

bonds shifted and mortgages rates changed inter-day. woke up to shit and pissed because i lost a ton for a certain customer, then there was a gnarly rally and i got it all back and then some. banks even re-priced mid-day.

[Warfarin]

I'm guessing that this will be a strong year overall.  The change in the tax code will be pretty significant for companies.  Some of that price has already been built-in during the 2017 run-up, as people bought on the promise of the rumor.  Good time to watch your stock portfolio.