Stock Market: The Thread

[Amazing Larry]

On 11/21/2016 at 4:45 PM, Taggart said:

at least something is going good. i've lost about .375% on the rate since the election.

for simple terms of those lurking, if you locked in a loan before the election and say it was 3%, it's now 3.75% in about 13 days.....and it's getting worse. that's fucking nuts and the biggest jump in either direction i've seen in a very long time.

Rates hit 4% yet?

Heard decent sized lender here in OC let go about 1/3 of their staff.

[Brandon]

6 hours ago, Lawrence said:

Rates hit 4% yet?

Heard decent sized lender here in OC let go about 1/3 of their staff.

30 year has been around there for some time. after brexit i think it dropped to 3.75% for a-paper/ top tier types. the rate sheet i've been seeing lately has 30 year at 4.125% for the same perfect scenario types. but our rates aren't the lowest because we service loans, so we can get away with a bit higher....if someone is shopping i usually come in with a lender credit and get close or beat most lenders.

15 year is probably around 3.5%

i am changing departments, so i've been dwindling my pipeline for about a month now and haven't really priced new loans since the start of november. but to give you an idea i have a recurring customer and i did her refi about 6 months ago. we did a cash-out refi (higher rates than normal rate and term refi's) and i got her a smoking deal at 3.99% with little in the way of closing costs. we ran some numbers for her and just to get the exact same loan now would cost about $9k in costs. just ugly as shit.

i have buddies at other shops and most have slowed down marketing or are laying people off. we are still growing, but i saw the writing on the wall and put in a transfer request a while back...just no one expected shit to get out of hand like it has since the election. i just happened to get a little lucky on the timing because after i was confirmed to move about a week later was the election and subsequent rate hikes. i don't envy loan officers these days. good news is most people over extend themselves for christmas and start to do debt consolidation, cash-out loans in january.

[Jay]

On 11/30/2016 at 9:49 AM, Gavin said:

I sold out of most of my stocks and mutual funds yesterday. The underlying factors don't seem to indicate that this upturn has any legs. We are due for a recession based on market history.

I'm the first person to say that you can't time the market, but something smells fishy. With that said, when there's blood in the streets, buy property (equities in this case). I'll be back in the market soon. 

There does seem to be a Trump euphoria going on in the market right now.

Not gonna fight it though, the last 18 months have been rough.

Like you I'm not a total believer. I'm sitting on 25% dry powder.

 

[Jay]

Dow 20,000 by year's end?

Up 1,000 points in the last month.

[Adam]

On 11/30/2016 at 6:48 PM, Taggart said:

30 year has been around there for some time. after brexit i think it dropped to 3.75% for a-paper/ top tier types. the rate sheet i've been seeing lately has 30 year at 4.125% for the same perfect scenario types. but our rates aren't the lowest because we service loans, so we can get away with a bit higher....if someone is shopping i usually come in with a lender credit and get close or beat most lenders.

15 year is probably around 3.5%

i am changing departments, so i've been dwindling my pipeline for about a month now and haven't really priced new loans since the start of november. but to give you an idea i have a recurring customer and i did her refi about 6 months ago. we did a cash-out refi (higher rates than normal rate and term refi's) and i got her a smoking deal at 3.99% with little in the way of closing costs. we ran some numbers for her and just to get the exact same loan now would cost about $9k in costs. just ugly as shit.

i have buddies at other shops and most have slowed down marketing or are laying people off. we are still growing, but i saw the writing on the wall and put in a transfer request a while back...just no one expected shit to get out of hand like it has since the election. i just happened to get a little lucky on the timing because after i was confirmed to move about a week later was the election and subsequent rate hikes. i don't envy loan officers these days. good news is most people over extend themselves for christmas and start to do debt consolidation, cash-out loans in january.

Feeling good locked in at 3.625% for the next 29 years

[Brandon]

7 hours ago, Adam said:

Feeling good locked in at 3.625% for the next 29 years

yeah, that's solid, even if you had basic closing costs. i know some places buddies of mine were at could pull that rate off for free too.

barring some economic catastrophe (which doesn't look likely with the way the stock market is on fire recently, your rate will never be had again for free or minimal cost. a 30 yr now at 3.625 is probably around 5-9k in costs.....most of that simply being the rate buy down.

i still get sales rate sheets and lost almost 500bps yesterday, gained about 350bps, but then before lunch saw a pricing alert for rates worsening.

[Make Angels Great Again]

I know very little about investing, I don't even know what most of the terms mean. But i've been hearing that investing your savings in an S&P 500 index fund is a good move. Quick googling brings me to a Vanguard index fund, not even sure where to begin in regards to actually putting money in it, but it looks like it would be a good investment being that it consistently grows at 6-10 percent year over year...right?

[Jay]

First of all you should seek the advice of a professional; don't take advice from people on a message board.

Depending on your age and risk tolerance you can invest in a combination of stocks, bonds, and other assets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_allocation

There are various mutual funds that make it simple to do this.

With respect to the S&P 500, it has had a rough ride the last 10 years.

If you put all your money into an S&P 500 fund in 2006, you would have been feeling somewhat panicky in 2009, to say the least. However, the next several years were great. Then in 2015 the market flattened out and it's been bumpy for the last 18 months. Since the election (not shown in this chart) the S&P 500 has increased over 5%. You never know what's going to happen. One way to smooth out the bumps is to use dollar cost averaging in which you invest a bit each pay period.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

Before you start investing make sure your financial house is in order. Pay off your credit cards and other personal debt before you start to invest. Never borrow money to invest.

 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

If you use a financial adviser find one who is fee and not commission based.  Before you go that route I'd recommend reading up on asset allocation: 

https://www.amazon.com/All-About-Asset-Allocation-Second/dp/0071700781/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1481907473&sr=1-3&keywords=asset+allocation 

You don't need to be an expert but reading a few books can help to better educate you about investing and make you more comfortable with it.  I think these days most people can figure out their own asset allocation based on their personal risk tolerance and invest in index funds which have low fees and a variety of companies who provide them (Vanguard, Fidelity, etc).  Historically 80% of actively managed mutual funds (recently up to 85% over the last so many years) have been outperformed by their respective index which means unless you pick the 20% that outperform you're paying higher expenses for lower performance.  

The S&P 500 has returned basically 10% a year over any 30 year period but as Jay points out if you look at 5, 10 or even 15 year periods it can paint a different picture.  From 1966-1981 the S&P was basically flat while it made up the difference from 1981-1996.  If you invested in 1966 for the first 15 years you really weren't happy and if you didn't stick it out you missed out on the upside from 81-96.  If you're thinking about investing money you'll need in the next 5 years I'd consider that short term and would stay away from equities.  If you want to 'set it and forget it' you can always go with a target date retirement fund.  Personally I'm 100% in equities and will continue to be until at least the age of 40.

[Adam]

I've invested heavily into a government run program called social security. I'm gonna be RICH!!

[mrwicked]

20 hours ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

I know very little about investing, I don't even know what most of the terms mean. But i've been hearing that investing your savings in an S&P 500 index fund is a good move. Quick googling brings me to a Vanguard index fund, not even sure where to begin in regards to actually putting money in it, but it looks like it would be a good investment being that it consistently grows at 6-10 percent year over year...right?

join this site: https://www.bogleheads.org/

yes - to begin, stick with an index fund. don't pay a bunch of fees which will just cut into your returns. index funds are super cheap because there is no person needed to manage it - it buys the stocks of some grouping and that's it.

go get a vanguard account, its free.

take your money, split it up into 4 pieces. and invest one piece every quarter for the next year. or split it up into 12 pieces, and invest one piece every month for the next year, etc. whatever you feel comfortable with. but don't analyze it too much, the key is to get it in there (and studies have shown the vast majority of time, it doesn't matter when you invest, just the act of investing is all that matters). so you could it all in one lump too, but some people don't like the feeling of investing, and then seeing it go down the next day. but in the long run it that wouldn't make any difference even if it does go down the next day, just like it doesn't make any difference if it goes up the next day.

stick it in there. and forget about it. don't look at it to see the value. don't move it around. don't stress about it. just forget it even exists. you shouldn't touch it at all, but definitely don't touch it (don't sell anything) until 365 days later, for tax reasons (read up on long term vs short term capital gains). you can always buy more though.

then while that is cooking and doing it's thing, read that bogleheads site. or get some books, etc and learn about it. it's not rocket science. and honestly it's no more difficult than being really good at fantasy sports, but it's a hellova lot better use of your brain power. the key is to have patience. this is the ultimate definition of "marathon, not a sprint." depending on your age you're looking at a 40-50 year window, that is more than one can comprehend. just let it go and the math will take care of itself.

but you should focus on 401k first if you have one. the order usually goes something like this:

- have safety fund of 6+ months in cash (or high yield savings account but doesn't make much difference). 

- do 401k up to your company match if they offer it (this is free money, you'd be an idiot to not take it)

- pay off CC debt (no investment will beat the interest you pay on CCs)

- do an IRA (roth or traditional) to the max, which is $5500

- max out your 401k

- now do your investing

p.s. my fee is only 39%, and those are friend prices. i'll send you an invoice.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Advice is appreciated, thanks  I'm not quite looking into it deep enough to want a financial adviser quite yet, just trying to get my feet wet. I just figure my money isn't really doing any good sitting in a standard savings account.

[Pheenom07]

So thank goodness I locked in at the end of October -  30 years @ 3.5 %.  $97 in closing costs thru LoanDepot's friends and family discount.   Rates have already jumped up more than 500 basis points since then.

[Jay]

Mortage rates are so low right now... when we bought our first house interest rates were in the 10-12% range...

 

[Jay]

21 hours ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

Advice is appreciated, thanks  I'm not quite looking into it deep enough to want a financial adviser quite yet, just trying to get my feet wet. I just figure my money isn't really doing any good sitting in a standard savings account.

You are doing good if you have no credit card debt and are saving some money... just having the mindset that you need to live within your means puts you ahead of most people.

 

 

[Brandon]

i personally don't like saving money for the sake of saving money. have your reserves, but i prefer to always have my money active or working for me.

if you want to get your feet wet, just open something like a td ameritrade account as an ira and max it out at $5500 a year and invest in safe stocks. i don't believe i'm the luckiest dude in the world because i've had apple and amazon for over 10 years......just do a little homework, pick up some stocks while spreading the wealth, and let it sit there.

let your money work for you.

[Brandon]

57 minutes ago, Jay said:

Mortage rates are so low right now... when we bought our first house interest rates were in the 10-12% range...

 

in general yes, but there is a huge difference between, say, november 5th and now......like 3.75% and 4.5% and a couple grand.

[Brandon]

22 hours ago, Pheenom07 said:

So thank goodness I locked in at the end of October -  30 years @ 3.5 %.  $97 in closing costs thru LoanDepot's friends and family discount.   Rates have already jumped up more than 500 basis points since then.

more than that

[Jay]

Dow 20,000 !!!

 

[Tank]

thanks, donald!

[fan_since79]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

thanks, donald!

Dow is up 9.5% since Election Day.

 

[fan_since79]

President Trump, who had warned on the campaign trail that the market was a "big, fat, ugly bubble", now says we need to go higher, or in his words, "up, up, up!"

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/26/investing/trump-dow-20000/index.html

[Tank]

in his tv interview with abc last night trump said he was very proud of the dow hitting 20k, though he almost sounded like he was taking some of the credit for it.

[fan_since79]

The S&P hasn't had a daily decline of 1% in the last 81 days, the longest such streak since 2006.

The market is not only at historic highs, but also is enjoying a period of unusual tranquility.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/08/investing/stocks-trump-selloff-wall-street/index.html

 

[fan_since79]

Fresh all-time highs for Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq this morning, and still climbing.

Dow is up 11.5% since the election.

Good times. Trump times.