Howie Kendrick - Serious Question for Stat Geeks

[gurn67]

Howie Kendrick is a better baseball player than Maicer. Period. However, when the game is late and close, Kendrick actually manages to hit into more double plays than he normally does. However, Maicer has always had the ability to make adjustments and almost never hit into a double play in those situations. When Vladdy or Albert hit into double plays, it's frustrating but sluggers tend to hit the ball really hard and they're usually not the fastest guys to first base. However, Howie has been in the league for 9 years. He's not a 30+ HR guy, he's always had decent speed to first, and for years now,  he should have been able to make some sort of adjustment so that he's not a consistent late inning rally killer.

[Inside Pitch]

Howie Kendrick is a better baseball player than Maicer. Period. However, when the game is late and close, Kendrick actually manages to hit into more double plays than he normally does. However, Maicer has always had the ability to make adjustments and almost never hit into a double play in those situations. When Vladdy or Albert hit into double plays, it's frustrating but sluggers tend to hit the ball really hard and they're usually not the fastest guys to first base. However, Howie has been in the league for 9 years. He's not a 30+ HR guy, he's always had decent speed to first, and for years now,  he should have been able to make some sort of adjustment so that he's not a consistent late inning rally killer.

 

Kendrick scorches balls, he just scorches them into the ground.  The guy has a career 1.23 GB ratio, so far this year he's got a GB rate of 2,00 (5th highest in MLB), it's a wonder he only has 3 GIDPs given he's not a pure speed guy..  

 

He's walking a lot more early on too.  On pace for 61 BBs, almost douible his career high of 33.  

[Tyler]

Dipoto should be on the phone with Toronto to move Howie. Get Janssen and some pitching prospects and call up Green.

[tdawg87]

Too beta to be bothered by all that data.

[WallyWorld]

I know for me personally, most of my frustration with Howie stems from the fact that he doesn't seem to learn or make adjustments as a hitter.  He's being fooled on the same pitches today as he was 5 years ago. Seems like he just shows up and plays, without ever putting much thought into what he's doing or how he can get better.

[Guest]

I know for me personally, most of my frustration with Howie stems from the fact that he doesn't seem to learn or make adjustments as a hitter.  He's being fooled on the same pitches today as he was 5 years ago. Seems like he just shows up and plays, without ever putting much thought into what he's doing or how he can get better.

Didn't Kendrick make some statement lately about not wanting to overthink his game by bothering to read scouting reports, and that he'd rather just play by instinct?

[Torridd]

It's funny how these things only come up when he goes 0-fer. I didn't hear anything when he hit the two homers.  

[tdawg87]

It's funny how these things only come up when he goes 0-fer. I didn't hear anything when he hit the two homers.

He didn't even go 0-fer last night.

[Guest]

It's funny how these things only come up when he goes 0-fer. I didn't hear anything when he hit the two homers.  

He hit two homers during a blowout (low leverage). Yet another example of Howie's non-clutchness. 

[WallyWorld]

Didn't Kendrick make some statement lately about not wanting to overthink his game by bothering to read scouting reports, and that he'd rather just play by instinct?

 

Yup, something along those lines.  I've been ragging on Howie for years - dude just frustrates me no end.  So many bad qualities for a baseball player, and yet because he ends up with relatively good stats for a 2B, people generally defend him.  It's interesting to me that this year the board seems to be turning against him.

[Blarg]

Kendrick is having a better April than Cano.

[ABC]

Kendrick is having a better April than Cano.

 

On paper.

[Guest]

Kendrick is having a better April than Cano.

 

 

On paper.

 

Cano is about half a win better than Kendick based on WPA. 

[nate]

Kendrick is 4th on the team in WAR behind Pujols, Trout and Hamilton (8 games and .9 WAR, he really was on fire)

[jshep]

So yeah, I'm going to pencil Howie in as the guy who people don't appreciate how good he's been for us until he's gone.

[Inside Pitch]

Cano is about half a win better than Kendick based on WPA. 

 

So, Cano is a better clutch hitter... because really that's what WPA is weighted towards, how clutch a play is or when it happened.  A guy hitting six first inning HRs in eventual blowouts gets less credit for his efforts than a guy hitting a couple HRs late in a game that puts his team in front and so forth.  That's how a guy like Kyle Saeger who has been pretty much absent for all but the last 4 days this season (.156/.280/.219 in his first 19 games), can rank in the top 10 in WPA, within reach of Mike Trout.   There is a good reason that WPA isn't used for predictive purposes or even as a basis for grading a players talent level -- because it doesn't actually shed any light on those things.

 

As far as other stats go.

 

wOBA - Kendrick .354,  Cano .320

wRC+ - Kendrick 127, Cano 100

WAR - Kendrick 0.9, Cano 0.3

BsR - Kendrick 0.3, Cano 0.2

Def - Kendrick 0.5, Cano (-0.5)

 

But yeah -- Cano has had more clutch moments ....so he's been better.

Edited April 28, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Guest]

So, Cano is a better clutch hitter... because really that's what WPA is weighted towards, how clutch a play is or when it happened.  A guy hitting six first inning HRs in eventual blowouts gets less credit for his efforts than a guy hitting a couple HRs late in a game that puts his team in front and so forth.  That's how a guy like Kyle Saeger who has been pretty much absent for all but the last 4 days this season (.156/.280/.219 in his first 19 games), can rank in the top 10 in WPA, within reach of Mike Trout.   There is a good reason that WPA isn't used for predictive purposes or even as a basis for grading a players talent level -- because it doesn't actually shed any light on those things.

 

As far as other stats go.

 

wOBA - Kendrick .354,  Cano .320

wRC+ - Kendrick 127, Cano 100

WAR - Kendrick 0.9, Cano 0.3

BsR - Kendrick 0.3, Cano 0.2

Def - Kendrick 0.5, Cano (-0.5)

 

But yeah -- Cano has had more clutch moments ....so he's been better.

 

I understand that WPA is not terribly significant over a sample size of a partial season or even a whole season, but in Kendrick's case it's odd that he's been consistently low in WPA / clutch stats for the last 5 years combined. 

 

I also get that WPA doesn't consider defense. Kendrick has definitely been better defensively so his overall value to the team there has still been a net positive.

[Inside Pitch]

I understand that WPA is not terribly significant over a sample size of a partial season or even a whole season, but in Kendrick's case it's odd that he's been consistently low in WPA / clutch stats for the last 5 years combined. 

 

I also get that WPA doesn't consider defense. Kendrick has definitely been better defensively so his overall value to the team there has still been a net positive.

 

Oh its not a useless stat, don't get me wrong.  But it's basically a new fancy "clutch stat" is all I was getting at.  I don't think even the biggest HK homer alive would argue that Howie is a clutch player, so using that stat for the basis of comparison is using a metric that guarantees painting him in his poorest light.