Howie Kendrick - Serious Question for Stat Geeks

[JoJo26]

Okay - Once again, Mr. Kendrick fails to deliver in a late game situation. Terry Smith alluded to this trend as Howie was walking up to the batter's box - stating that just on this road trip, Howie has been out #3 in the 9th on more than one occasion...

 

This is not a new trend for the "future batting champ" - not coming up clutch - especially after inning 5. My question:

 

What is HK's batting average - with RISP after inning 5? There's got to be someone out there who can denounce or confirm my claim that he is "MR. HALO UN-CLUTCH". 

 

Thanks in advance...

 

 

[NrM]

Meh fans have said the same thing about trout, which I believe to be bullshit. 

I feel the same way about kendrick.

 

I think he's fine.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Poozy

[NrM]

btw does it make kendrick less valuable? Would you be happier with a player who sucks the entire game, but comes up big later?

Runs scored in the 1st are just as important as runs scored in the 9nth.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Poozy

[markb]

The closest thing to what you're seeking is probably "late and close."  It and most "clutch" stats are a bit controversial because some would argue that given a large enough sample size, they won't differ much from a player's overall stats.  

 

Howie's late and close:  .279/.323/.395 

 

Not terribly far off his career slash of .293/.331/.429.  In fact, his entire "clutch" stats group is nothing but mid 700's OPS.  So as a guy with a large sample of PAs over the course of his career, he's a very solid argument against the validity of clutch stats.  

 

Howie being "un-clutch" is more a product of confirmation bias stemming from his love affair with DPs and low and outside sliders.  

[fan_since79]

Howie in the 8th and 9th innings has OPS+ of 74 and 76 respectively, compared to his overall career OPS+ of 107.

 

These are his worst two innings for offense.

 

I'll try to narrow that down for RISP from inning 5 on.

[markb]

Howie in the 8th and 9th innings has OPS+ of 74 and 76 respectively, compared to his overall career OPS+ of 107.

 

These are his worst two innings for offense.

 

This is pretty normal, though.  A player in late innings is more likely to face a dominant closer or matchup reliever.  Even Derek Jeter, The Hero This World Deserves, has a tOPS+ of 91 in the 8th, and 64 in the 9th.  

Edited April 26, 2014 by markb

[Inside Pitch]

Howie in the 8th and 9th innings has OPS+ of 74 and 76 respectively, compared to his overall career OPS+ of 107.

 

These are his worst two innings for offense.

 

I'll try to narrow that down for RISP from inning 5 on.

 

 

Hi, you are misquoting a statistic...  That's not his OPS+ which compares the players vs the league and park adjusts, that's his tOPS, meaning it's his OPS in a given inning compared to his overall OPS in his other at bats -- it doesn't differentiate between men on or bases empty..  

 

Miguel Cabrera, noted for being a clutch player has a tOPS of 94 in the 8th and 66 in the 9th and 77 in extra inning's -- Kendrick BTW is 101 in extras.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Season Over]

I'm generally on board with advanced metrics, but anything that suggests that Howie is competent with the game on the line is a crock of feces. 

[Inside Pitch]

Howie Kendrick is what he is -- the only people who want him to be more are the people who bought into the idiotic "future batting champ" garbage.

 

Situation - OPS

 

Bases Empty - .763

Men on Base - .755

W RISP - .748

Home - .759

Away - .760

vs. LHP - .781

vs. RHP -  .750

1st half - .750

2nd half - .772

 

Kendrick may be the most boringly consistent hitter the Angels have ever had.  He's always exactly the same, the only people getting bent at it are the ones that can't let go of something a scout said 10 years ago.

 

Get over it already.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Docwaukee]

howie's kryptonite is the down and away slider.  everyone knows it. 

 

a good chunk of relievers throw a good slider so it makes sense that he would be less effective in the later innings

 

Win probability added is basically a scoring system that totals the sum of his events with leverage taken into account

 

The sum total for his career is 0.31 and the total for the last couple of years including the portion of 2014, his total is -2.67.

 

Meaning that the sum total of events with him at the plate have had a negative value to the team. 

 

In contrast, when you remove leverage from the equation (WPA/LI), the sum total for his career is 3.49 so his Clutch rating, or what he does in high leverage relative to neutralizing that is -3.19. 

 

Since 2010, his total WAR is 13.8 or about 3.5 per year which makes him a solid player.  Ranked 7th among other 2b over that time

His WPA over that time is -1.67.  28th among qualified 2b.  If you take leverage out his WPA/LI is 3.05.  11th among qualified. 

For all of major league baseball including the 2011 season till now, Kendrick has the lowest clutch rating of every qualified player at -4.93

 

Statistically, there are no two ways around it.  Howie is not good in high leverage situations. 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Dochalo

[ten ocho recon scout]

Howie Kendrick is what he is -- the only people who want him to be more are the people who bought into the idiotic "future batting champ" garbage.

Situation - OPS

Bases Empty - .763

Men on Base - .755

W RISP - .748

Home - .759

Away - .760

vs. LHP - .781

vs. RHP - .750

1st half - .750

2nd half - .772

Kendrick may be the most boringly consistent hitter the Angels have ever had. He's always exactly the same, the only people getting bent at it are the ones that can't let go of something a scout said 10 years ago.

Get over it already.

plus 1 for 'boringly consistent'.

Thats the truth. Howie will never be a star. But hes far better than those who point out hes not a star think.

I like howie. Always have. Hes not a moto hitter. Hes still solid.

When trout and pujols arent doing it....thats why we bought hamilton.

[Erstad Grit]

HK is a good ball player. He just should not be batting anywhere from 1-5

[fan_since79]

Hi, you are misquoting a statistic...  That's not his OPS+ which compares the players vs the league and park adjusts, that's his tOPS, meaning it's his OPS in a given inning compared to his overall OPS in his other at bats -- it doesn't differentiate between men on or bases empty..  

 

Miguel Cabrera, noted for being a clutch player has a tOPS of 94 in the 8th and 66 in the 9th and 77 in extra inning's -- Kendrick BTW is 101 in extras.

 

Okay, thanks for that. I learned a new stat today!

 

His tOPS still correlates directly to his regular OPS, so the point still holds (I think). But it's clear that many other hitters also do worse in the late innings, so my original point was probably not all that relevant.

Edited April 27, 2014 by fan_since79

[Homebrewer]

I thought this thread would be about something I must have mis-heard in today's game.

They said he had something like 4 fly ball outs in the last 4 seasons?

I know he grounds out, and into GIDPs a lot, but 4 fly outs in 4 seasons?

I must have heard that wrong.

[Guest]

I thought this thread would be about something I must have mis-heard in today's game.

They said he had something like 4 fly ball outs in the last 4 seasons?

I know he grounds out, and into GIDPs a lot, but 4 fly outs in 4 seasons?

I must have heard that wrong.

IIRC the stat was infield flyouts, not flyouts in general.

[Homebrewer]

That makes more sense...but still...that is amazing.

[AngelsLakersFan]

 

 

Meaning that the sum total of events with him at the plate have had a negative value to the team. 

 

 

 

Compared to average.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

This is pretty normal, though.  A player in late innings is more likely to face a dominant closer or matchup reliever. 

 

I was wondering when someone was going to bring this up. If you are the last out in the ninth, odds are your team is behind and you are facing a guy throwing smoke, hand picked to pitch one inning because few hitters can touch him.

[JoJo26]

Howie does get a triple Sunday...bases empty when he does it. Now - that's timing!

[Chuck]

Howie does get a triple Sunday...bases empty when he does it. Now - that's timing!

 

This pisses me off about Howie. GIDP in the clutch, gets a knock with the bases empty. 

 

Adding to my frustration with him, when the game was over he was laughing and smiling at something while pointing to the Yankees celebration on the field. 

 

Good thing he's not pissed off after losing a game they should have won. 

[Homebrewer]

This pisses me off about Howie. GIDP in the clutch, gets a knock with the bases empty. 

 

Adding to my frustration with him, when the game was over he was laughing and smiling at something while pointing to the Yankees celebration on the field. 

 

Good thing he's not pissed off after losing a game they should have won. 

I saw that too.

[Guest]

Not as ridiculous as Votto's 1 CAREER infield pop fly and 0 CAREER balls pulled foul into the seats. Or I might have it backwards...

WTF?? How is that possible? Great American ballpark doesn't even an excessive amount of foul territory like O.Co

Edited April 28, 2014 by ScottLux

[Brent Maguire]

This pisses me off about Howie. GIDP in the clutch, gets a knock with the bases empty. 

 

Adding to my frustration with him, when the game was over he was laughing and smiling at something while pointing to the Yankees celebration on the field. 

 

Good thing he's not pissed off after losing a game they should have won. 

Yeah I saw that too. Thought I was the only one who saw it so I assumed I just didn't see it right. 

[gurn67]

Career PA for Howie Kendrick in late and close situations 601 with 22 GiDP.

Career PA for Maicer Izturis in late and close situations 552 with 4 GiDP.

[markb]

Maicer may not be the best go-to guy to make a point -- he was literally the worst player in the majors last year.  

 

While I noted earlier in the thread that Howie's splits aren't as dramatic as people think (I'll concede that going even deeper with WPA doesn't look good), I certainly would never argue for him hitting cleanup like he has recently, as there's also significant sample size to show he hits much better lower in the order.  Because there's less clutch situations from that position?  Maybe.  Granted cleanup is the one spot in the order where he doesn't have a particularly large sample size, but it still follows the trend.

 

By position in batting order:

 

2nd - 815 PAs, .710 OPS

3rd - 160 PAs, .641 OPS

4th - 76 PAs, .607 OPS

5th - 646 PAs, .737 OPS

6th - 911 PAs, .788 OPS

7th - 801 PAs, .804 OPS

8th - 288 PAs, .847 OPS

 

For whatever reason, he hits a lot better lower in the order.  Shoehorning him in at cleanup, regardless of how poor our options are, is definitely not making the best use of him.  

Edited April 28, 2014 by markb