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Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects
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YouthofToday
Posted 2013-02-08 7:37 AM (#1935745)
Subject: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: Redondo Beach, Calif.
Pay-wall: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19590

 State of the Farm: “How can you laugh when you know I'm down? (How can you laugh?) When you know I'm down.”

Wow, what a pathetic farm system. I doubt anybody other than Cowart would be in the Rangers top 10.

 When your 3rd best prospect is a 1B/DH only and is coming off a .327 OBP, .516 SLG year as a 22 year-old in the Cal league you know you have issues

 Let's hope we go deep into the post-season the next few years... the worst farm system baseball doesn't exactly bode well for our future.

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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-02-08 8:03 AM (#1935753 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: CA
no witherspoon?
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-02-08 8:16 AM (#1935764 - in reply to #1935753)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Posts: 1489

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:03 AM

no witherspoon?


Witherspoon is Nathan Haynes. All promise and projection.

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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-02-08 8:41 AM (#1935773 - in reply to #1935764)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 8:16 AM

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:03 AM

no witherspoon?


Witherspoon is Nathan Haynes. All promise and projection.

 

isnt that what all prospects are?

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bloodbrother
Posted 2013-02-08 8:43 AM (#1935775 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: RE: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects




YouthofToday - 2013-02-08 7:37 AM
Pay-wall: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19590

 State of the Farm: “How can you laugh when you know I'm down? (How can you laugh?) When you know I'm down.”

Wow, what a pathetic farm system. I doubt anybody other than Cowart would be in the Rangers top 10.

 When your 3rd best prospect is a 1B/DH only and is coming off a .327 OBP, .516 SLG year as a 22 year-old in the Cal league you know you have issues

 Let's hope we go deep into the post-season the next few years... the worst farm system baseball doesn't exactly bode well for our future.

 Good thing they'll have the time to replenish it. Most of their major league talent IS homegrown and is still young. Trout, Trumbo, Bourjos, Conger(maybe), Aybar, Kendrick, Callaspo, Weaver. Only Weaver is over 30, with Kendrick and Callaspo only turning 30 at some point this season

My main concern going forward is the SP. Weav and CJ are over 30, Hanson is young but has horrendous mechanics and shoulder woes already in his career, Blanton is a stopgap fill-in and so is Vargas. They don't have much of anything on the farm. They'll need to develop some high end SP arms because they can't be spending boatloads of cash on them in FA(especially with how overpriced they are lately)

Everything else about the roster looks fine to me

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YouthofToday
Posted 2013-02-08 11:03 AM (#1935954 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: Redondo Beach, Calif.
Problem is we don't have a 1st round pick this summer. We could be a bottom 5 farm system for years.
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dochalo
Posted 2013-02-08 11:29 AM (#1935995 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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The next two drafts will be all about arms and likely guys that are college level who could move quick. Their current group of sps seem to include a bunch of guys with stuff yet low prob to remain starters. They are gonna need some luck for it not to be an issue.
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cezero
Posted 2013-02-08 11:31 AM (#1935999 - in reply to #1935995)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Posts: 660

dochalo - 2013-02-08 11:29 AM

The next two drafts will be all about arms and likely guys that are college level who could move quick. Their current group of sps seem to include a bunch of guys with stuff yet low prob to remain starters. They are gonna need some luck for it not to be an issue.


i'm seeing the same about a lot of teams. gives me hope that maybe Jack Z up in Seattle was onto something when stacking the M's farm system with top pitching. i'm thinking we're going to have a lot of business with teams like the halos in the near future.
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ScottyAllenLAAI
Posted 2013-02-08 12:58 PM (#1936094 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.
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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-02-08 1:02 PM (#1936100 - in reply to #1936094)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.


Seems like only YoT is complaining about that.
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Dave Saltzer
Posted 2013-02-08 1:17 PM (#1936119 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: RE: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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Issues, yes. But, it's not as bad as people think. There are players there. The next wave is 1.5-2.5 years away. There's talent there. The parent club is solid and not in need to rush anyone. Changes have been made. And most importantly, the parent club looks like a strong contender for October, and that is the true focus of the organization. The system has produced plenty of homegrown talent and will continue to do so.

Oh, and as for that #3 prospect, I think he led all the Minor Leagues in RBIs and did so with an injured labrum that was finally surgically repaired this offseason. Things aren't as bad as some will have you believe. Read our introduction to the Top-50 Prospect List.

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Chuck Richter
Posted 2013-02-08 1:21 PM (#1936120 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: RE: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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This is kind of getting to the point where we've beaten this horse into the depths of hell don't you think?

Farm system rankings don't mean shit unless you fail to produce young players to the major league roster every season. The Angels have done so almost every season despite being one of the top tier teams that have lower draft picks.

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jshep
Posted 2013-02-08 1:33 PM (#1936126 - in reply to #1936094)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.


Since when is Cron the premier power hitter in the minor leagues?
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Angel Oracle
Posted 2013-02-08 1:37 PM (#1936127 - in reply to #1936126)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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jshep - 2013-02-08 1:33 PM

ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.


Since when is Cron the premier power hitter in the minor leagues?


I'm hoping he meant in our system.
Cron is solid, but not the top power hitter in all of minor league baseball.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-02-08 1:46 PM (#1936136 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: Limbo
Amateur Angels fan site analysts: "There's lot of talent in the Angels farm system, rumors of it being bad are overblown."
Every single unbiased professional analyst: "The Angels farm system sucks."

Hmm...who to believe?

I'm partially kidding. I think John Sickels put it well: "29) Los Angeles Angels (18): Big drop now that Mike Trout has graduated and other players have been traded. Strengths: decent group of position players with Kaleb Cowart the best of the lot. Several potential bullpen arms. Weaknesses: impact pitching, especially potential starting pitchers. Overall depth."

I think that hits the nail on the head - he acknowledges that there are some pretty good position players and a few bullpen arms but little to no starting pitching prospects and poor depth. Is there anything to disagree with there? Angels fans can argue that there is actually more depth that non-fan analysts don't realize because they don't follow the organization, but the problem with that view is that can be said of every organization. In the end it evens out.

So I think it is accurate to say that the Angels have one of the very worst farms in baseball right now. Hopefully that will shift over the next couple years.

His rankings can be found here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm...
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HaloMagic
Posted 2013-02-08 1:46 PM (#1936137 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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With all due respect, the "it's not as bad as people think" think isn't easy to trust when everyone who is in the business of releasing prospect lists and comparing organizational talent ranks us 29th or 30th. If 30th isn't bad what is?

I get that we are currently set at a lot of positions as far as starters go. What we don't have is championship caliber depth. We also have pretty much no SP depth and, unless we plan on buying some on the FA market, an intense need for it starting at least next season (or right now in my opinion). I understand that farm rankings aren't what drives the game. Results do. But you can't ignore the fact that the majority of our impact players came from a farm system that was highly regarded. We produced great players and the people who ranked farm talent agreed. Now it looks like the talent isn't so good. Can we still produce impact players from it? Yes. But it's far less likely than if we had the right players. For years we've derided Boston and NYY's farm systems as not good and the reason why they need to spend so much on the FA market. We talked about how it would eventually catch up to them. It did for Boston. 2013 looks like a telling season for NYY. That club isn't looking hot. So everyone was right about the lack of farm talent affecting the big league club. But now that we have a lack of farm talent it's supposedly not an issue? I disagree.

I get that this can be overcome. I get that Dipoto and his team appear to be really smart. But the bottom line right now is it's not good. Finding ways to sugar coat it isn't making the worried people more at ease.
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Richard
Posted 2013-02-08 1:50 PM (#1936140 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Yeah it stinks, but the ML roster is set for the next half decade, which gives the FO time to start re-building.
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cezero
Posted 2013-02-08 1:51 PM (#1936141 - in reply to #1936120)
Subject: RE: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Chuck Richter - 2013-02-08 1:21 PM

This is kind of getting to the point where we've beaten this horse into the depths of hell don't you think?

Farm system rankings don't mean shit unless you fail to produce young players to the major league roster every season. The Angels have done so almost every season despite being one of the top tier teams that have lower draft picks.



That depends. They hype surrounding minor league players oftentimes results in great trades for proven FA talent, despite the fact that the hype for the minor leaguer never amounts to much a lot of the time.

The Angels don't have to worry about it right now because they've got some great FA....but wait until the luxury tax starts compounding....what then? If your owners don't mind forking out the $$$$, good for you. Otherwise, you'll need a farm that does more than produce what you're talking about.
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Angel Oracle
Posted 2013-02-08 1:56 PM (#1936145 - in reply to #1936141)
Subject: RE: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Fortunately, Mr. Pop-Ups' salary will be off of the books after 2014.
There's $21 million freed up right there.

NO MORE FA HITTERS NEED TO BE SIGNED!
If they are going to sign one high profile FA in the next 2-3 off-seasons, let it be after 2014 when several good pitchers are available.
And hope that Richards can actually pitch consistently enough up here by 2014.
I don't have much faith in gopher ball Blanton or bad mechanics Hanson.

Plus many of the college pitchers drafted the past 2 years have already shown to be much more reliever prospect.

Edited by Angel Oracle 2013-02-08 2:00 PM
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-02-08 1:56 PM (#1936148 - in reply to #1935773)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:41 AM

Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 8:16 AM

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:03 AM

no witherspoon?


Witherspoon is Nathan Haynes. All promise and projection.

 

isnt that what all prospects are?



Some of them actually look like they can play baseball.
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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-02-08 1:57 PM (#1936149 - in reply to #1936148)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 1:56 PM

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:41 AM

Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 8:16 AM

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:03 AM

no witherspoon?


Witherspoon is Nathan Haynes. All promise and projection.

 

isnt that what all prospects are?



Some of them actually look like they can play baseball.


witherspoon doesnt?
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Hollyw00d
Posted 2013-02-08 1:59 PM (#1936151 - in reply to #1936094)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.



Isn't that an overstatement. Cron is having the same career path and numbers as brandon wood. Just sayin

Even brandon wood had better plate discipline than this dude
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-02-08 2:18 PM (#1936166 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Posts: 1489

IMHO it's is as bad as they are making it out to be.. What I think is being overblown is how long it's going to take to repair. The Angels were rated the 30th best franchise in MLB by BB America after the Bavasi/Collins reign of incompetence in 2000. Their farm system was ridiculed, one of the best comments I heard in those days that the franchise had almost become incestuous in how rampant the cronyism was and how few people were there based on merit instead of who they knew... Enter Bill Stoneman... They were ranked 17th best by 2002, by 2003 they were 5th best. By 2005 they were ranked number one.

They have a nice little three year window to try to turn things around. Like Doc said, the next two drafts youll likely see an emphasis on arms and college level talent. The Angels will simply need people who are capable of contributing, not superstars.

Edited by Inside Pitch 2013-02-08 4:36 PM
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-02-08 2:25 PM (#1936173 - in reply to #1936149)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Posts: 1489

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 1:57 PM

Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 1:56 PM

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:41 AM

Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 8:16 AM

Wallerrrr - 2013-02-08 8:03 AM

no witherspoon?


Witherspoon is Nathan Haynes. All promise and projection.

 

isnt that what all prospects are?



Some of them actually look like they can play baseball.


witherspoon doesnt?


He looks completely over-matched quite often. He's got enough raw talent to get by, but honestly, Ive not seen a lot of guys who look as awful he does at times. People got excited about the numbers he put up last year in High A, but we are talking about a guy who was 23 years old. Nathan Haynes for instance was 19 when he was in High A. So while they both were toolsy guys who looked to be breaking out, one of them was at an advanced age when he did it. It came as no surprise when he tanked in AA.

One thing about TW, his batting eye isn't as horrible as Haynes was.

TW to me is a classic high risk high reward bottomless floor type.

Edited by Inside Pitch 2013-02-08 2:42 PM
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HaloFan85
Posted 2013-02-08 2:31 PM (#1936185 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: RE: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects




YouthofToday - 2013-02-08 7:37 AM
Pay-wall: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19590

 State of the Farm: “How can you laugh when you know I'm down? (How can you laugh?) When you know I'm down.”

Wow, what a pathetic farm system. I doubt anybody other than Cowart would be in the Rangers top 10.

 When your 3rd best prospect is a 1B/DH DH/1B only and is coming off a .327 OBP, .516 SLG year as a 22 year-old in the Cal league you know you have issues

 Let's hope we go deep into the post-season the next few years... the worst farm system baseball doesn't exactly bode well for our future.

That sums it up.

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GlenM
Posted 2013-02-08 2:33 PM (#1936186 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects




I get the reasons that our farm system is depleted right now. However, that doesn't stop me from worrying about our starting pitching, and that's one area where we have no depth at all in the minors. If Weaver has any time on the DL, who replaces him? If Hanson can't pitch who takes his place? This team is banking on all five projected starters making it throughout the year without an injury and that's a huge gamble.
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-02-08 2:40 PM (#1936198 - in reply to #1936151)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Hollyw00d - 2013-02-08 1:59 PM

ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.



Isn't that an overstatement. Cron is having the same career path and numbers as brandon wood. Just sayin

Even brandon wood had better plate discipline than this dude


Would love to see you back this statement up with something other than opinion. Their career paths to date are really rather different as is their performance to date. Wood's contact rates were considerably worse, his power while impressive came in a much better hitting environment than Cron's. Rancho like IE is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the Cal League but, not to the extent Inland Empire is.

We really don't have a big enough track record on Cron to really say/gauge what he is, he's had less than 700 plate appearances. He was historically a guy with great plate discipline and pitch recognition in college and even last year as his walk rate seemed to crater, his K rate dropped so -- he's not a guy that's swinging wildly ala Wood. While I'm not jumping on his bandwagon, I did see enough of him to take notice of how often he made contact. Dude did a pretty decent job of protecting the plate once he got behind too. He was interesting.

This will be a very telling season for Cron as he should be healthy and AA should see him facing better quality pitching.

Edited by Inside Pitch 2013-02-08 4:37 PM
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Dave Saltzer
Posted 2013-02-08 3:33 PM (#1936242 - in reply to #1936136)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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Angelsjunky - 2013-02-08 1:46 PM Amateur Angels fan site analysts: "There's lot of talent in the Angels farm system, rumors of it being bad are overblown." Every single unbiased professional analyst: "The Angels farm system sucks." Hmm...who to believe? I'm partially kidding. I think John Sickels put it well: "29) Los Angeles Angels (18): Big drop now that Mike Trout has graduated and other players have been traded. Strengths: decent group of position players with Kaleb Cowart the best of the lot. Several potential bullpen arms. Weaknesses: impact pitching, especially potential starting pitchers. Overall depth." I think that hits the nail on the head - he acknowledges that there are some pretty good position players and a few bullpen arms but little to no starting pitching prospects and poor depth. Is there anything to disagree with there? Angels fans can argue that there is actually more depth that non-fan analysts don't realize because they don't follow the organization, but the problem with that view is that can be said of every organization. In the end it evens out. So I think it is accurate to say that the Angels have one of the very worst farms in baseball right now. Hopefully that will shift over the next couple years. His rankings can be found here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm-system-rankings[/QUOTE]

 

AJ:

With all due respect, you are not understanding what I'm saying. I fully acknowledge that the system is NOT good right now. But, it's all in what you choose to make your primary focus in terms of organizational rankings. In a really good farm system in a really good year, maybe 2-3 players will make it into the Majors, of whom, 1 or 2 may have a decent 5 year stretch. Another 1-20 will have a cup of coffee in the big leagues due to an injury.

Right now, who on the Major League roster really needs to be replaced? Remember, you can't have a superstar at every position. Do we need a better 1B than Pujols? A better RF than Hamilton? A better CF than Bourjos? Can you find a better LF than Trout? How about a better DH than a healthy Trumbo? As for Kendrick, Aybar, Iannetta/Conger, they are more than serviceable. Maybe the rotation needs tweeking. How many Top-10 prospects from any organization will be better starters than what we have right now starting this April? My point is that the need is not there, nor are there THAT many prospects who will come up for any team right now and produce substantially better than what we have.

And, Dipoto has done plenty to add to the depth in the system. He has signed many journeymen AAAA players to fill depth at Salt Lake. They will buy the time until the next wave of talent arrives within 1.5-2.5 years.

I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid, I'm looking at the farm differently than the so-called experts. Looking at all the players in the system, the Angels overall are not good. But, that doesn't mean that there isn't talent there. I won't be surprised to see Cowart as a Top-50 prospect overall after next year. I can see Grichuk in the Top-100. If Cron refines his plate discipline, he could be one as well. Maronde projects as a decent starter or lefty specialist. I could go on but I hope you get the point. If just those 4 guys make it in the next 2 years, that's a production of 2 Major League players a year, which is what the system should produce. The talent around them is clearly not as strong as that in other organizations, but most of those guys will never make the Major Leagues. Luckily, right now, we have an owner and a cash flow to afford to not be as concerned about this.

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jshep
Posted 2013-02-08 4:26 PM (#1936309 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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In less terrible farm system news, Cowart was ranked 23rd on Keith Law's Top 100 prospects list.

So at least the farm has that going for it.
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angelduck
Posted 2013-02-08 4:36 PM (#1936325 - in reply to #1936094)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.


You are ridiculously overrating CJ Cron. He'll be lucky to be a ML hitter
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angelduck
Posted 2013-02-08 4:41 PM (#1936328 - in reply to #1936309)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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jshep - 2013-02-08 4:26 PM

In less terrible farm system news, Cowart was ranked 23rd on Keith Law's Top 100 prospects list.

So at least the farm has that going for it.


That is a lot higher than I thought. Cool to see that some of the experts are high on him
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Stradling
Posted 2013-02-08 4:45 PM (#1936330 - in reply to #1936309)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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jshep - 2013-02-08 4:26 PM

In less terrible farm system news, Cowart was ranked 23rd on Keith Law's Top 100 prospects list.

So at least the farm has that going for it.


Does that count as.........VALIDATION?
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YouthofToday
Posted 2013-02-08 5:40 PM (#1936415 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: Redondo Beach, Calif.
Who's to say we don't trade Anybody not named Cowart at the trade deadline that is remotely considered a prospect for a piece?

Sorry, MLB capping bonuses at the draft, overseas, no 1st round draft pick (we probably end up with the smallest budget at the 2013 as a result) + the probable need to trade anybody considered a prospect for a piece for a run = immense pessimism on our farm's future.

Cron is not the elite power prospect in the minors. That's an incredulous thing to say.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-02-08 7:41 PM (#1936580 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: Limbo

HaloMagic, we posted very similarly during the same minute. Great minds, as they say.

Dave, I appreciate what you are saying and the fact that you are taking a "glass half full" approach, but I think you are still white-washing it a bit. Also, "organizational rankings" isn't accurate to these assessments because it implies the entire organization. "Farm system rankings" is more likely. And I think it has to do with the total quality of talent in the farm, with an emphasis on high impact players and potential stars rather than quantity of potential decent major leaguers.

In my mind the Angels only have ONE single player in the minors that has a good chance at being a star, and that is Kaleb Cowart. This doesn't mean that others couldn't develop into stars, or that others don't have good chances at decent major league careers, but that Cowart is the only player that I'd bet on to be anything more than a decent major leaguer.

But here's a question: what exactly is the difference between a great farm system and a terrible one? To come close to answering that, let's look at John Sickels' #1 ranked system--the Cardinals--and compare the ratings of the top 20 prospects with the Angels, who Sickels rates #29.

Cards : A, A, A-, B+/A-, B+, B, B, B-, B-, B-, B-, B-, C+, C+, C+, C+, C+, C+, C+, C+

Angels: B+, B/B+, B-, B-, B-, C+, C+, C+, C+, C+, C+, C, C, C, C, C, C, C, C, C

Now let's play a game of mathematical subtraction - erase those ratings that are the same and see what we come up with.

Cards : A, A, A-, B+/A-, B, B-, B-, C+, C+

Angels: C, C, C, C, C, C, C, C, C

That's what we're left with, and it doesn't look pretty. This assumes that prospects #21 and beyond are similar. The Angels are left with nine decent prospects - guys that have a small chance at being major league regulars and decent chances at part-time roles - vs. four potential stars, and five potential/probable big league regulars. So while the Angels have talent in the minors, it isn't the kind of talent that makes for a good farm system - that is, it isn't star potential talent. If you put Kaleb Cowart in the Cardinals organization, according to John Sickels he'd be their fifth best prospect. Maronde, Cron, Grichuk, and Lindsely would be somewhere in the #10-15 range, but the rest of the Angels prospects would be around #20 or worse. Not terrible, but you can see the different.

To put it another way, here's how the Angels/Cardinals top 20 would look (I'll alternate same grade prospects):

  1. 1. Taveras A
  2. Miller A
  3. Martinez A-
  4. Rosenthal B+/A-
  5. Cowart B+
  6. Wacha B+
  7. Maronde B/B+
  8. Wong B
  9. Adams B
  10. Grichuk B-
  11. Jenkins B-
  12. Cron B-
  13. Garcia B-
  14. Lindsey B-
  15. Kelly B-
  16. Wisdom B-
  17. Piscotty B-
  18. Alvarez C+
  19. G. Garcia C+
  20. Calhoun C+

Here we can clearly see that the difference is premium talent. Once we get past the B+ to A range, they're actually somewhat similar. A secondary different is the depth of second tier (C+ to B) prospects.

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ScottyAllenLAAI
Posted 2013-02-08 9:24 PM (#1936704 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



All-Star

Posts: 1875

Location: California
JShep, the only minor leaguer I've seen with as much raw natural power as Cron is Larry Greene. I'm not saying Cron will come up and hit 40 HR's, I'm saying that in terms of just power and only power, I haven't seen really any prospects that have as much of it as he has. I'm considerably higher on Cron than the Angels organization and every other scouting site, which should tell you something. I'm probably wrong, but not because I'm a fan boy. I just see to much potential there.

1. He's just getting healthy. Finally had surgery to fix the labrum. Also, his knee is back at 100%. What he did last season in a pitcher friendly home park with a bum shoulder and a recovering knee in his first full season of pro ball was nothing short of remarkable.

2. He isn't just a swing hard, miss/hit hard type of hitter. There's an actual approach, one that will only improve with time. His plate discipline will be a strength before all is said and done.

3. He's moving up to AA, and seeing his HR's at Inland Empire and knowing his approach and ability, he won't struggle nearly as much as other guys like Witherspoon and Grichuk. He'll do fine and will still probably top 25 HR in a very pitcher friendly environment.

Honestly, I think we're looking at a .280 30 HR hitter in his prime at the major league level. That's pretty darn good. Right at Trumbo's level or even a slight step above given I think he'll swing and miss less.
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gotbeer
Posted 2013-02-08 9:53 PM (#1936731 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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What's a first-round pick worth?

If the Angels do what we think they will do the next few seasons, the Angels won't get much value in the draft. Chances are, the minors will be how they are right now for a few years. We are really going to have to find diamonds in the rough, and the scouting team is going to really have to do their homework and get lucky, if our farm is going to improve significantly.

But if we do well at the MLB level, will it matter? It might suck in 5 years. But as Tim Mead said at fanfest, the Angels are all in.
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bloodbrother
Posted 2013-02-09 12:10 PM (#1937010 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects




Cubs and Astros had terrible farms about 2 years ago. MEts had a terrible farm a few years ago. All 3 now have some high end talent and their farm systems are now ranked 10th, 11th, and 12th in rankings. You can replenish a farm very quickly. Halos need to get back to finding talent in the international market
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YouthofToday
Posted 2013-02-09 12:44 PM (#1937019 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Location: Redondo Beach, Calif.
Those three benefited from high 1st round picks (Harvey, et al) and dump trades (dickey, etc). We don't have either of those luxuries.
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Ten Ocho Recon Scout
Posted 2013-02-09 1:26 PM (#1937035 - in reply to #1936198)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



All-Star

Posts: 3938

Location: Orange County
Inside Pitch - 2013-02-08 2:40 PM

Hollyw00d - 2013-02-08 1:59 PM

ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 12:58 PM

We're complaining about the premier power hitter in the minor leagues being our 3rd ranked prospect. Wow.



Isn't that an overstatement. Cron is having the same career path and numbers as brandon wood. Just sayin

Even brandon wood had better plate discipline than this dude


Would love to see you back this statement up with something other than opinion. Their career paths to date are really rather different as is their performance to date. Wood's contact rates were considerably worse, his power while impressive came in a much better hitting environment than Cron's. Rancho like IE is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the Cal League but, not to the extent Inland Empire is.

We really don't have a big enough track record on Cron to really say/gauge what he is, he's had less than 700 plate appearances. He was historically a guy with great plate discipline and pitch recognition in college and even last year as his walk rate seemed to crater, his K rate dropped so -- he's not a guy that's swinging wildly ala Wood. While I'm not jumping on his bandwagon, I did see enough of him to take notice of how often he made contact. Dude did a pretty decent job of protecting the plate once he got behind too. He was interesting.

This will be a very telling season for Cron as he should be healthy and AA should see him facing better quality pitching.


Good point, IP. Cron was a let down last year on base wise. I remember hearing good things about his college on base skills and wonder what happened. But, like you said, it was only one year. If he improves on it the next year or two, I think he replaces trumbo when trumbo hits FA. Or, if Trumbo signs a contract here and cron is ready, he becomes a decent trade chip.

Either way im holding off on loving or hating cron for now. Lets see if he makes some strides forward.
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ScottyAllenLAAI
Posted 2013-02-09 2:25 PM (#1937078 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



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Posts: 1875

Location: California
Cron is already a decent trade chip. A team like the Rays or even the Astros wouldn't mind getting their hands on him.
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angelduck
Posted 2013-02-09 2:26 PM (#1937081 - in reply to #1937078)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



Salt Lake Bees

Posts: 995

I don't think any 23 year old DH only who just put up a .325 OBP is a decent trade chip. Doubt he has any value at all actually
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Hollyw00d
Posted 2013-02-09 3:11 PM (#1937161 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


Orem Owlz

Posts: 147

The third best prospect in one of the worst farm systems in baseball is a marginal major league player, at best. If his on base skills were really his "strength" he would have better than a 3% walk rate in A ball
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bloodbrother
Posted 2013-02-09 3:25 PM (#1937176 - in reply to #1937161)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects




Well, it was a strength coming out of college. He was noted for having good plate discipline. The fact that it has completely vanished in his pro career is concerning. A 3.1% BB% is nothing short of abysmal. Bright side is that he has an excellent K% for a guy who has the power he does. This will be a big year for Cron. He has to start showing some vast improvement in his BB% if he is going to get anywhere
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HaloFan85
Posted 2013-02-09 3:45 PM (#1937195 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects




MLB.com has the same top 3 as BP but different from there on down.

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=ana

 



Edited by HaloFan85 2013-02-09 3:50 PM
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-02-09 4:07 PM (#1937208 - in reply to #1937161)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



Big League Angels

Posts: 1489

Hollyw00d - 2013-02-09 3:11 PM

The third best prospect in one of the worst farm systems in baseball is a marginal major league player, at best. If his on base skills were really his "strength" he would have better than a 3% walk rate in A ball


Actually, his power was supposed to be his greatest tool, the fact that he walked was seen as gravy and a sign he would climb rather quickly, after ONE full season year, he's looking at AA. Considering the injuries, that't not bad.

The walk rates are a legit concern and I'm not sure why he's swinging so much -- but he's not a huge swing and miss guy and he doesn't chase a lot. So, there is hope there. Like I said previously, this season should tell us a lot about what he really is.

Oh and before someone chimes in that he should have hit more HRs if power is indeed one of his calling cards.... His home park has a HR index of 56. To put that into perspective, Petco comes in at 93, Safeco comes in at 70, PacBell comes in at 69 (for RHs). That park is hurting his numbers.

Away from Inland Empire, CJ Cron managed the following batting line.... .318/.349/.629 with 22 HRs in 283 at bats. I'm betting that people would be a lot less ready to write him off if only they knew how that park plays.

I'm willing to hold off judgement on his walk rate for now. It's been ONE year.
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YouthofToday
Posted 2013-02-09 4:47 PM (#1937242 - in reply to #1935745)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



Hall of Fame

Posts: 5831

Location: Redondo Beach, Calif.
It would be ideal for Cron to start raking in AA and his stock improving. DiPoto didn't draft him. Considering how RH heavy our line-up is, Pujols and Hamilton will need to DH more as they get older and Trumbo really isn't even an average defensive OF ... I don't see how Cron fits into the organization's future.

I would be very surprised to see him accumulate more than a year of service time with the Angels. If he demonstrates being able to be an everyday 1B he'll be traded.

Edited by YouthofToday 2013-02-09 4:50 PM
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OTT
Posted 2013-02-09 8:37 PM (#1937390 - in reply to #1936704)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects



All-Star

Posts: 2314

ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-02-08 9:24 PM

JShep, the only minor leaguer I've seen with as much raw natural power as Cron is Larry Greene.


Are you talking about just Angels minor leaguers?

Miguel Sano is three years younger and played just a level below Cron last year and clubbed 29 homers.

In terms of just pure hitting I think even Dan Vogelbach is better than Cron. I don't think prospects like Cron are all that special.

Regardless we put too much stock in organizational rankings. The Angels have shown the willingness to spend and fill holes with money. We don't need a good farm like other teams do. If we can just get good role players out of it and hopefully some decent pitching id be happy. We're the team that buys off other teams stud farm products when they can't afford them anymore

Edited by OTT 2013-02-09 8:41 PM
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Tyler
Posted 2013-02-09 9:24 PM (#1937423 - in reply to #1936136)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


Hall of Fame

Posts: 6136

Angelsjunky - 2013-02-08 1:46 PM

Amateur Angels fan site analysts: "There's lot of talent in the Angels farm system, rumors of it being bad are overblown."
Every single unbiased professional analyst: "The Angels farm system sucks."

Hmm...who to believe?


All these other sites do is rank their most ml ready prospects. They never go out on a limb and find the 'sleepers'.
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Cespedes
Posted 2013-02-09 9:30 PM (#1937426 - in reply to #1937423)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


Arkansas Travelers

Posts: 637

Tyler - 2013-02-09 9:24 PM

Angelsjunky - 2013-02-08 1:46 PM

Amateur Angels fan site analysts: "There's lot of talent in the Angels farm system, rumors of it being bad are overblown."
Every single unbiased professional analyst: "The Angels farm system sucks."

Hmm...who to believe?


All these other sites do is rank their most ml ready prospects. They never go out on a limb and find the 'sleepers'.


I am guessing you are looking for the sleepers in other teams farm systems?
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Tyler
Posted 2013-02-09 9:31 PM (#1937427 - in reply to #1937426)
Subject: Re: Baseball Prospectus: Angels Top 10 Prospects


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Posts: 6136

All the time.
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