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My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-01-08 2:21 PM (#1918643)
Subject: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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My "official" prediction for Trout stands at .308/.397/.530 with 27 HR and 50 SB, but I'm tempted to lower that BA by 15-20 points (and thus with it the other stats). The anti-stat crowd doesn't want to face the fact that his .383 BABIP is unsustainable. Unless he's able to significantly reduce his strikeouts and/or somehow keep a ridiculously high BABIP, a more moderate (but still quite high) .330-.350 BABIP turns last year's BA into more like .290.

So the Grady Sizemore comps from a year ago might be correct. Sizemore during his healthy prime (2005-08) hit .289, .290, .277, .268. I don't see Trout going below about .280, but I think we need to adjust our expectations somewhat and expect something more in the .280-.300 range. I hope he's able to crack .300 but I think the odds are against him.

I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but my adjusted prediction is more like .290/.380/.500 with 25 HR and 50 SB. Still a terrific 7-8 WAR player, but not quite on the same level. He may be able to bring those numbers up but I think we're do for a significant regression.

 

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Paco
Posted 2013-01-08 2:22 PM (#1918645 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)


I think the SB's are a bit high too.
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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-01-08 2:24 PM (#1918649 - in reply to #1918645)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Paco - 2013-01-08 2:22 PM

I think the SB's are a bit high too.


he had 49 last year and didnt even play a full season.

I'd say 50 is very likely
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Chuck Richter
Posted 2013-01-08 2:25 PM (#1918651 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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I see nothing in his game that warrants a regression. I don't buy into the sophomore slump BS.

Trout adjusts to the game & the pitcher better than anyone in the game.
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Paco
Posted 2013-01-08 2:27 PM (#1918655 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)


He had a historic year, anyone that thinks he will do it again or improve on it this year are fooling themselves! The kid is a beast, but let's not put too much pressure on him.
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ScottyAllenLAAI
Posted 2013-01-08 2:28 PM (#1918656 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Well, he never hit below .300 in the minors, even posted a .376 BABIP in the most pitcher friendly environment in the minors, which means very little in the majors, as seen with Kendrick. But, Trout's always maintained a ridiculously high BABIP, even in the minors. Do you think that given his skill set, and more specifically working the count in his favor, hitting the ball to all fields and being as fast as he is, that unsustainably high BABIP may just be the norm for him? Trout's going to break records, and more specifically, he could justifiably be a hitter who's BABIP is above .350 on a continual basis. It also isn't pout of this world to think that he'll cut down on the K's and draw more walks as pitchers begin to fear his power as much if not more than Pujols or Hamilton.

The power is real, he's developed muscle the way many men do at age 20-23. The speed is real, he's an athlete. His discipline is real, he's focused and intelligent. I mean when will fans just stop and figure out that Mike Trout is "real". Not too good to be true. .320/.400 is more of a possibility than most folks realize. 2012 was great. But at some point, perhaps fans will just say Mike Trout is great, rather than Mike Trout's 2012 was great.
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Chuck Richter
Posted 2013-01-08 2:30 PM (#1918658 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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If anything, I can see a lower BA, but more SB, Runs, HR, RBI. I don't see Trout hitting .290 though. Too much speed, makes good hard contact.
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Lifetime
Posted 2013-01-08 2:30 PM (#1918659 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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LOL nothing we say will put too much pressure on him.
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Count Orlok
Posted 2013-01-08 2:32 PM (#1918660 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Speed helps your BABIP a lot and now they get to play the Astros.
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Troll Daddy
Posted 2013-01-08 2:32 PM (#1918661 - in reply to #1918651)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)




Location: Costa Mesa
Chuck Richter - 2013-01-08 2:25 PM

I see nothing in his game that warrants a regression. I don't buy into the sophomore slump BS.

Trout adjusts to the game & the pitcher better than anyone in the game.


Sophomore slumps are more about the league catching up with the player. If Trout can make the necessary adjustments he should be fine.
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Chuck Richter
Posted 2013-01-08 2:32 PM (#1918662 - in reply to #1918656)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-01-08 2:28 PM

Well, he never hit below .300 in the minors, even posted a .376 BABIP in the most pitcher friendly environment in the minors, which means very little in the majors, as seen with Kendrick. But, Trout's always maintained a ridiculously high BABIP, even in the minors. Do you think that given his skill set, and more specifically working the count in his favor, hitting the ball to all fields and being as fast as he is, that unsustainably high BABIP may just be the norm for him? Trout's going to break records, and more specifically, he could justifiably be a hitter who's BABIP is above .350 on a continual basis. It also isn't pout of this world to think that he'll cut down on the K's and draw more walks as pitchers begin to fear his power as much if not more than Pujols or Hamilton.

The power is real, he's developed muscle the way many men do at age 20-23. The speed is real, he's an athlete. His discipline is real, he's focused and intelligent. I mean when will fans just stop and figure out that Mike Trout is "real". Not too good to be true. .320/.400 is more of a possibility than most folks realize. 2012 was great. But at some point, perhaps fans will just say Mike Trout is great, rather than Mike Trout's 2012 was great.


Good post.
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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-01-08 2:35 PM (#1918663 - in reply to #1918662)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Chuck Richter - 2013-01-08 2:32 PM

ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-01-08 2:28 PM

Well, he never hit below .300 in the minors, even posted a .376 BABIP in the most pitcher friendly environment in the minors, which means very little in the majors, as seen with Kendrick. But, Trout's always maintained a ridiculously high BABIP, even in the minors. Do you think that given his skill set, and more specifically working the count in his favor, hitting the ball to all fields and being as fast as he is, that unsustainably high BABIP may just be the norm for him? Trout's going to break records, and more specifically, he could justifiably be a hitter who's BABIP is above .350 on a continual basis. It also isn't pout of this world to think that he'll cut down on the K's and draw more walks as pitchers begin to fear his power as much if not more than Pujols or Hamilton.

The power is real, he's developed muscle the way many men do at age 20-23. The speed is real, he's an athlete. His discipline is real, he's focused and intelligent. I mean when will fans just stop and figure out that Mike Trout is "real". Not too good to be true. .320/.400 is more of a possibility than most folks realize. 2012 was great. But at some point, perhaps fans will just say Mike Trout is great, rather than Mike Trout's 2012 was great.


Good post.


Agreed...very good points Scotty
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Morales4MVP
Posted 2013-01-08 2:53 PM (#1918681 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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So much pessimism.
Ichiro Suzuki had great batting averages because of his speed that let him get infield base hits, beat out singles from what would be a groundout for mostly everyone else.
27 HRs, he did hit 30 in not even a full season.

How many times did Grady Sizmore have 40+ SBs ? none. His closest was 38 at age 25.
How many times did Grady Sizemore hit 30+ HRs ? Once. 33 HRs at age 25.
Mike Trout is only 21 !
Grady Sizemore has never hit .300+
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Jimmag
Posted 2013-01-08 3:26 PM (#1918720 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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I think we see a drop off in batting average other than that all I have is...

                                                 

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angelduck
Posted 2013-01-08 3:32 PM (#1918730 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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He's going to K less next year...I'm almost positive about that. It seemed like at the end of the year he started walking more(I could be wrong on that though).

Overall, I think he'll still be an 8+ WAR player. He might not be the 11 WAR player that we saw this year, but he'll still be the best CF in the game rather easily
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worldofx
Posted 2013-01-08 3:33 PM (#1918732 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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He has too much speed to have a "bad" BABIP year. There's 10+ infield hits he'll beat out every year that no one else can which will inflate his AVG.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-01-08 3:57 PM (#1918762 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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.330-.350 is not a "bad" BABIP year, but .383 is really, really high.

I hope y'all are right. I keep going back and forth on it and I'll probably tinker with predictions for a few more months. I could see .290/.850 or .330/.950 or anywhere in-between. But if I had to bet I'd guess he'll hit in the .290-.310 range, not the .310-.330 or .330+ range.
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gurn67
Posted 2013-01-08 4:01 PM (#1918767 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)


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.290??? In pitchers dreams!!!
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eaterfan
Posted 2013-01-08 4:06 PM (#1918773 - in reply to #1918767)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)


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I'm not sure we have an accurate BABIP measure for a guy like Trout. Two kinds of guys typically have higher than average BABIPs; speed guys and guys who hit the ball insanely hard. Trout is both those kinds of guys. His BABIP should be amongst the highest in the league year after year. That being said I don't think .380 is sustainable but I also think he cuts down on his K's and walks more as he gets more experience.
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robblin17
Posted 2013-01-08 4:10 PM (#1918777 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Why don't we just let the kid play and then see how he does? Mike Trout doesn't let advanced statistics tell him what he can and can't do.
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robblin17
Posted 2013-01-08 4:10 PM (#1918778 - in reply to #1918732)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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worldofx - 2013-01-08 3:33 PM

He has too much speed to have a "bad" BABIP year. There's 10+ infield hits he'll beat out every year that no one else can which will inflate his AVG.


This.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-01-08 4:20 PM (#1918796 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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robblin17, I am not in any way preventing the kid from playing.
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robblin17
Posted 2013-01-08 4:30 PM (#1918815 - in reply to #1918796)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Angelsjunky - 2013-01-08 4:20 PM

robblin17, I am not in any way preventing the kid from playing.


I mean, I guess it is fun to play around with numbers and what ifs, but he has not even played a whole season yet. I get that these advanced metrics have value, but for a guy who just put up one of the greatest seasons in the history of the game, I think we should all just sit back and see what he can do instead of predicting what he should or might do.
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Adam
Posted 2013-01-08 4:34 PM (#1918821 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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.330/.400/.600
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GregAlso
Posted 2013-01-08 5:02 PM (#1918847 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)





Posts: 48

Location: Fullerton, CA
Interestingly Ichiro has had 3 seasons with a BABIP above .380 (one at .399,) but he has also had a .279 BABIP season. Mostly he sits somewhere between .330-.350 and has a career BABIP of .347. I could see this happening to Trout too. He could end up with a career BABIP around .350, like Ichiro, with a few .380+ seasons (I hope he never has the .270 BABIP season but it could happen.) This could mean a few seasons of BA around .325 and others around .300 with one around .280. Can't ever tell when that'll be but I think this can give some perspective to Trout's future performance.
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Inside Pitch
Posted 2013-01-08 5:30 PM (#1918857 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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I wouldn't be surprised to see his power and average drop and his OBP rise. His plate discipline was at its best when his average was at it's lowest. BTW the Ichiro BaBip comparisons are worth noting but not without making the observation that much of Ichiro's game was about hitting a weak roller and reaching base via IF hit. The only time Trout hits a weak roller is when he hits it off the tip of his bat or off the hands. They may both be fast and yes, faster players tend to have better BaBips but Trout's game is a bit different than the typical speed guy.
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Halo
Posted 2013-01-08 5:39 PM (#1918861 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



I'd be surprised if Trout doesn't hit .300+. He gets quite a few hits with his legs... legitimate hits... despite what Jim Leyland says. Plus, he's a good hitter.
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GregAlso
Posted 2013-01-08 5:41 PM (#1918863 - in reply to #1918857)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)





Posts: 48

Location: Fullerton, CA
I agree Ichiro's game and Trout's are different in terms of how they use their speed. What is curious is to how they are similar. I wanted to give some light on a comparison based on their speed game and whether Trout's BABIP was sustainable. There aren't many guys with comparable speed to Trout that we can compare to, i don't think, and even less with comparable BABIPs. What's interesting about Trout's other big comparison, Ricky Henderson, is that he never posted higher than a .365 BABIP and only had two years in his career in that range. His career BABIP is .305, which surprises me. It seems there are some ways Trout's game is not like Rickey's eventhough they seem so similar.

Edited by GregAlso 2013-01-08 5:44 PM
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Blarg
Posted 2013-01-08 5:51 PM (#1918870 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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I'm worried Trout will hit .400 and quit because this is too easy.
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ucsbhubs
Posted 2013-01-08 6:18 PM (#1918881 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



Trout had the fortieth highest Babip in the last fifteen years. 40th. He can just as easily hit .365 as .400 in the BABIP dept next year and still be a 8-9 WAR player. He may not be a 10 WAR player playing predominately left, but he will be just fine.

If he adjusts and cuts down on his strikeouts, his walks AND his ball in play outs will go up but so might his hits. He could easily hit .335 with a .370
BABIP.
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tdawg87
Posted 2013-01-08 6:29 PM (#1918884 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Trout just needs to cut down on those damn K's. I think he will though. He may never have a K% lower than 15 but I think he could get it pretty close.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-01-08 6:32 PM (#1918891 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Here's a random, weird, but related stat. Austin Jackson has a career .370 BABIP in 441 games - that's 3rd best ever. 11 of the top 30 are active players - I'm not sure why it is such a high number.

If Trout qualified for whatever list I cooked up at Fangraphs, his career .358 would be 10th - just ahead of Derek Jeter and just behind Rod Carew and David Freese, who has no place being on that list. I don't know what's up with that.
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ucsbhubs
Posted 2013-01-08 6:41 PM (#1918898 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



Until he's 27-28 barring injury is expect Trout to routinely hit .350-.390 BABIP.
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GotWood4Dipoto
Posted 2013-01-08 6:47 PM (#1918902 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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I think he will cut down on the K's this season. He seemed last year to get into a ton of early 2 strike counts, I can see that improving after seeing big league pitching last season.
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Idunno
Posted 2013-01-08 8:02 PM (#1918926 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)





Posts: 7

The dudes a beast and i cant wait to see which of these predictions eventuate. Whatever his numbers ill enjoy the spectacle either way
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Poozy01
Posted 2013-01-08 9:08 PM (#1918955 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Posts: 3708

why can't trout lower his Ks?
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ettin
Posted 2013-01-08 9:16 PM (#1918957 - in reply to #1918651)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Chuck Richter - 2013-01-08 2:25 PM

I see nothing in his game that warrants a regression. I don't buy into the sophomore slump BS.

Trout adjusts to the game & the pitcher better than anyone in the game.


This is exactly the reason why Trout is special. Overall the league will try and adjust to him not the other way around.

As far as the BAPIP he has run some extremely high ones during his Minor League career and he has such tremendous speed that I just don't see him, in the foreseeable future, having anything less than a .360 BAPIP.

Anyone can have a bad season(s) but Trout's combination of speed, plate discipline, and ability to adapt is at a totally different level than most other players.
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VOTC
Posted 2013-01-08 9:54 PM (#1918962 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)


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Angelsjunky - 2013-01-08 2:21 PM

My "official" prediction for Trout stands at .308/.397/.530 with 27 HR and 50 SB, but I'm tempted to lower that BA by 15-20 points (and thus with it the other stats). The anti-stat crowd doesn't want to face the fact that his .383 BABIP is unsustainable. Unless he's able to significantly reduce his strikeouts and/or somehow keep a ridiculously high BABIP, a more moderate (but still quite high) .330-.350 BABIP turns last year's BA into more like .290.

So the Grady Sizemore comps from a year ago might be correct. Sizemore during his healthy prime (2005-08) hit .289, .290, .277, .268. I don't see Trout going below about .280, but I think we need to adjust our expectations somewhat and expect something more in the .280-.300 range. I hope he's able to crack .300 but I think the odds are against him.

I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but my adjusted prediction is more like .290/.380/.500 with 25 HR and 50 SB. Still a terrific 7-8 WAR player, but not quite on the same level. He may be able to bring those numbers up but I think we're do for a significant regression.

 



The BABIP is ridiculously high. And I do think that it'll drop a bit. But a lot of that high BABIP is based on his father being a bolt of lightening that mated with a cheetah. The dude is straight FAST. Normal "gimmies" simply aren't when he's blasting down the chalk.

I think your official prediction is about right...but I feel I'm being conservative saying that.
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HaloDave88
Posted 2013-01-08 11:49 PM (#1918992 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: RE: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)




Posts: 16

Bat .309 31HR 53SB
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soCALkid
Posted 2013-01-09 3:16 AM (#1919004 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



Location: Sh*t, CA
.337/41hr/108rbi/62SB

Take it to the bank
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Poozy01
Posted 2013-01-09 6:25 AM (#1919016 - in reply to #1919004)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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soCALkid - 2013-01-09 5:16 AM

.337/41hr/108rbi/62SB

Take it to the bank


only 108 RBIs with 41 Hrs and a .337 BA?!?! that must mean he can't hit with RISP...

trout sucks...

Edited by Poozy01 2013-01-09 6:29 AM
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STEVESTEVENS
Posted 2013-01-09 6:33 AM (#1919018 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)




Here is the problem with someone looking just at Trout's BABIP.. You fail to take into account that when Trout hits the ball he hits it so much damn harder than pretty much everybody else in the league.

Stats are great but so is watching the game.
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Poozy01
Posted 2013-01-09 6:39 AM (#1919019 - in reply to #1919018)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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STEVESTEVENS - 2013-01-09 8:33 AM

Here is the problem with someone looking just at Trout's BABIP.. You fail to take into account that when Trout hits the ball he hits it so much damn harder than pretty much everybody else in the league.

Stats are great but so is watching the game.


I have noticed that too. He hits the ball harder than most players, so his BABIP will naturally be higher than most,
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ucsbhubs
Posted 2013-01-09 1:14 PM (#1919276 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



A .330 BABIP is not going to result in a fifty point drop in batting average. He could hit more HR or more importantly cut down on strikeouts and walk more. He could hit more sac flies. None of this is going to result in a drop of fifty points in BA. The two are tied together only that they both say batting average. BABIP takes strikeouts, HR, walks, and HBP out of the equation and adds back in sacrifices. So theoretically, 50 less strikeouts and 50 more flyouts and ground outs could result in a lower BABIP, but leave batting average unchanged. If he did that and say hit more HR, his BABIP would go down but BA would go up.

I expect Trout to have a career .315-.335 average.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-01-09 1:20 PM (#1919281 - in reply to #1919018)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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STEVESTEVENS - 2013-01-09 9:33 AM Here is the problem with someone looking just at Trout's BABIP.. You fail to take into account that when Trout hits the ball he hits it so much damn harder than pretty much everybody else in the league. Stats are great but so is watching the game.

Who is "looking just at Trout's BABIP?"

Is it that difficult for some here to look at advanced stats AND "watch the game?" 

 

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Angels Never Die
Posted 2013-01-09 1:22 PM (#1919283 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)




I expect his plate discipline to improve, so I don't really give a shit as long as his obp is basically the same.
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Angel Oracle
Posted 2013-01-09 1:27 PM (#1919291 - in reply to #1919283)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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2013 prediction: PAIN for the opposition

Seriously though: .320/.390/.560 37 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 35 HRs, 103 rbis, 55-62 SBs

Edited by Angel Oracle 2013-01-09 1:28 PM
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Central Coast Halo
Posted 2013-01-09 1:55 PM (#1919330 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: While some regression or adjustment is natural...




Posts: 8

I sit in the middle on this. On the one hand, the high BABIP is due to the fact perhaps that he hs a great stroke that hits almost anything hard and he has ridiculous speed. That is a lethal combination. However he hit 284 in August and 257 in September and looked more "human" in the latter half of the season. so where does he settle? He will battle the adjustment period as all young players do. He seemed to strike out more as the season wore on. He will be great but some ups and downs are a given this early in his career. I would expect a BA around 300 with 290 not out of the question but at the same time 330 possible too. I would expect it on the lower side this year as he adjusts.

I hope he runs more and the old school do not run him out with Pujols and Hamilton waiting to homer does not cut into his SB attempts. I do not believe it will when you run at over a 90% success rate, you run.

It's fun to speculate, I just can't wait to watch him play some more. Few players have captivated me as he has. He is the whole package.

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Wallerrrr
Posted 2013-01-09 2:01 PM (#1919337 - in reply to #1919330)
Subject: RE: While some regression or adjustment is natural...



Hall of Fame

Posts: 12061

Location: CA

Central Coast Halo - 2013-01-09 1:55 PM

I sit in the middle on this. On the one hand, the high BABIP is due to the fact perhaps that he hs a great stroke that hits almost anything hard and he has ridiculous speed. That is a lethal combination. However he hit 284 in August and 257 in September and looked more "human" in the latter half of the season. so where does he settle? He will battle the adjustment period as all young players do. He seemed to strike out more as the season wore on. He will be great but some ups and downs are a given this early in his career. I would expect a BA around 300 with 290 not out of the question but at the same time 330 possible too. I would expect it on the lower side this year as he adjusts.

I hope he runs more and the old school do not run him out with Pujols and Hamilton waiting to homer does not cut into his SB attempts. I do not believe it will when you run at over a 90% success rate, you run.

It's fun to speculate, I just can't wait to watch him play some more. Few players have captivated me as he has. He is the whole package.

 It was also the most games he's ever played in a season. I think fatigue settled in towards the end.

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carewsal
Posted 2013-01-09 2:43 PM (#1919373 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



Big League Angels

Posts: 1125

I'm not expert on the canon of BABIP but am mildly interested in a related point brought up in this thread: how hit ball speed influences BABIP.

On one hand, to the extent that Trout can use his speed to gain additional infield hits, it seems that hitting the ball hard on the ground to an infielder would be a liability to beating out a throw to 1B (potentially a decrease to BABIP). However, the IFers may back up when Trout is at the plate, giving him more time to get to first base on a IF grounder in play.

Far more importantly, a hard hit ball is more likely to get past IF defense and has better chance of not being caught in the air by the OF, both of which increase BABIP if I understand the stat correctly.

According to the below BP article that statistically analyzed the topic, "the harder the ball was hit, on average, off of the team’s pitchers, the fewer balls the fielders turned into outs."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15562
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