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My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)
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Angel Oracle
Posted 2013-01-09 5:18 PM (#1919511 - in reply to #1919337)
Subject: RE: While some regression or adjustment is natural...



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Wallerrrr - 2013-01-09 2:01 PM

Central Coast Halo - 2013-01-09 1:55 PM

I sit in the middle on this. On the one hand, the high BABIP is due to the fact perhaps that he hs a great stroke that hits almost anything hard and he has ridiculous speed. That is a lethal combination. However he hit 284 in August and 257 in September and looked more "human" in the latter half of the season. so where does he settle? He will battle the adjustment period as all young players do. He seemed to strike out more as the season wore on. He will be great but some ups and downs are a given this early in his career. I would expect a BA around 300 with 290 not out of the question but at the same time 330 possible too. I would expect it on the lower side this year as he adjusts.

I hope he runs more and the old school do not run him out with Pujols and Hamilton waiting to homer does not cut into his SB attempts. I do not believe it will when you run at over a 90% success rate, you run.

It's fun to speculate, I just can't wait to watch him play some more. Few players have captivated me as he has. He is the whole package.

 It was also the most games he's ever played in a season. I think fatigue settled in towards the end.



+1

He does have a nice compact swing.
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Central Coast Halo
Posted 2013-01-09 5:32 PM (#1919543 - in reply to #1919337)
Subject: RE: While some regression or adjustment is natural...




Posts: 8

I agree fatigue was a factor. I also believe there was pitching adjustments. If he continues in being selective and seeing pitches, and drawing walks then all will work well. Keeping OBP near 400 is the best thing. He can do that. But I do believe it was more than fatigue. it is all part of the development curve.
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Blarg
Posted 2013-01-09 6:22 PM (#1919591 - in reply to #1919543)
Subject: RE: While some regression or adjustment is natural...



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Posts: 32057

Keeping his obp at least .100 points above his batting average is a good thing. Making a .400 obp a ceiling is not.
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Angelsjunky
Posted 2013-01-09 6:57 PM (#1919606 - in reply to #1918643)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)



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Don't get me wrong. I think he'll have seasons as good as 2012, maybe even one or two better, but I don't think it will be 2013. I expect some regression; whether it is a lot or little, who knows. I'm guessing somewhere around .300/.900 with 25-30 HR, but would be less shocked if he hits .290/.850 than if he hits .330+/1.000+ like some are predicting.
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STEVESTEVENS
Posted 2013-01-09 8:15 PM (#1919664 - in reply to #1919281)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)




Angelsjunky - 2013-01-09 2:20 PM

STEVESTEVENS - 2013-01-09 9:33 AM Here is the problem with someone looking just at Trout's BABIP.. You fail to take into account that when Trout hits the ball he hits it so much damn harder than pretty much everybody else in the league. Stats are great but so is watching the game.

Who is "looking just at Trout's BABIP?"

Is it that difficult for some here to look at advanced stats AND "watch the game?" 

 



"just" was probably the wrong word.

I like sabremetric stats in proving abnormalities for career seasons or career bad seasons and also rookies projections.

As for Trout, I really think his BABIP will stay about the same because he should cut back on his SO's and he will continue to crush the ball.

We will see.
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JimC
Posted 2013-01-09 9:04 PM (#1919712 - in reply to #1918656)
Subject: Re: My worry about Trout (and why we shouldn't be surprised if he hits .290)




Location: Where the Angels play

ScottyAllenLAAI - 2013-01-08 2:28 PM Well, he never hit below .300 in the minors, even posted a .376 BABIP in the most pitcher friendly environment in the minors, which means very little in the majors, as seen with Kendrick. But, Trout's always maintained a ridiculously high BABIP, even in the minors. Do you think that given his skill set, and more specifically working the count in his favor, hitting the ball to all fields and being as fast as he is, that unsustainably high BABIP may just be the norm for him? Trout's going to break records, and more specifically, he could justifiably be a hitter who's BABIP is above .350 on a continual basis. It also isn't pout of this world to think that he'll cut down on the K's and draw more walks as pitchers begin to fear his power as much if not more than Pujols or Hamilton. The power is real, he's developed muscle the way many men do at age 20-23. The speed is real, he's an athlete. His discipline is real, he's focused and intelligent. I mean when will fans just stop and figure out that Mike Trout is "real". Not too good to be true. .320/.400 is more of a possibility than most folks realize. 2012 was great. But at some point, perhaps fans will just say Mike Trout is great, rather than Mike Trout's 2012 was great.

We'll need at least another year for that to be said. 

As far as everything else you wrote, I completely agree. 

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